Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Don]

I am more than happy with that.

Yes indeed. Although so much doom and gloom in the model discussion thread this morning! (post GFS 6z anyway).

[TEITS]

Amazing outlook and I have admit to being surprised at the 16-30 day forecast.

Below average temps and above average rainfall in winter for S Brtitain can only mean one thing and that is N blocking with S,ly tracking LP systems. I very much doubt it refers to only convective E,lys because it would state precip above average only in extreme SE parts and even then I doubt rainfall would be above average.

I should have more faith in the Met O really because I remember back in Dec 2009 the very cold, snowy outlook was predicted even when it wasn't obvious in the model output.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Amazing outlook and I have admit to being surprised at the 16-30 day forecast.

Below average temps and above average rainfall in winter for S Brtitain can only mean one thing and that is N blocking with S,ly tracking LP systems. I very much doubt it refers to only convective E,lys because it would state precip above average only in extreme SE parts and even then I doubt rainfall would be above average.

I should have more faith in the Met O really because I remember back in Dec 2009 the very cold, snowy outlook was predicted even when it wasn't obvious in the model output.

Of course we should have more faith in them, they are the pros after all, and 99% of the time they are right.

[carinthian]

Hi,

Interesting forecast from the UKMO. Looks like the influence of the present European cold spell will prolong its hold over much of Central and Eastern Britain. Currently -13C here and forecast low tomorrow night of -25 C brrrr.

C

[weather_it_will]

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

Eastern parts of the UK are likely to be cold, dry and bright at first on Monday. Western areas are more likely to be cloudy with rain, this falling as snow on high ground. The rain is likely to move slowly eastwards during Monday, with western areas becoming drier but staying rather cloudy. After this, northwesterly winds are likely to affect the UK, bringing showers to many northern and western areas, with a chance of further snow on hills, perhaps to lower levels in Scotland. It will also become rather windy at times. Central, southern and eastern areas should gradually become drier and brighter though. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly below average for February, but it should be less cold than recent days.

Updated: 1216 on Wed 1 Feb 2012

[Don]

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

Eastern parts of the UK are likely to be cold, dry and bright at first on Monday. Western areas are more likely to be cloudy with rain, this falling as snow on high ground. The rain is likely to move slowly eastwards during Monday, with western areas becoming drier but staying rather cloudy. After this, northwesterly winds are likely to affect the UK, bringing showers to many northern and western areas, with a chance of further snow on hills, perhaps to lower levels in Scotland. It will also become rather windy at times. Central, southern and eastern areas should gradually become drier and brighter though. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly below average for February, but it should be less cold than recent days.

Updated: 1216 on Wed 1 Feb 2012

Well a downgrade on yesterday's excellent looking outlook for coldies. Lets hope it swings back in favour as it's now February and time is running out. Even the 16-30 day now says close to average temps at first and then cold. However, if this keeps getting put back we'll still be waiting come June!

[HotCuppa]

Unless something major happens such as north westerly flow for my region..ive given up entirely for this winter season, .

Cold and zero snow? i dont think so, i mean 3/5C for beginning of feb is the normal temperature is it not? night time frosts

at -4/-6C are also common in a normal winter..baring in mind historically feb is supposed to be the coldest month of the

year, so i'm confused as to what this easterly is doing? its not exactly doing much from my perspective.but then i dont

live on the east coast, and snow here is non existent..just typical feb temps for the time of year lol

Edited February 1, 2012 by HotCuppa

[HotCuppa]

Of course we should have more faith in them, they are the pros after all, and 99% of the time they are right.

They have a relatively poor record for getting both the temps and conditions right here, unless its the middle

of summer. Just my perspective

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Feb 2012 to Thursday 16 Feb 2012:

There is likely to be an east-west split across the UK for much of next week. Eastern areas are likely to be cold, dry and bright, but with freezing fog patches forming overnight. Western areas are more likely to be milder, cloudier with outbreaks of rain, although this is still likely to fall as snow on high ground. After this, northwesterly winds are likely to affect the UK, bringing showers to many northern and western areas, with a chance of further snow on hills, perhaps to lower levels in Scotland. With showers mainly in the north and west, central, southern and eastern areas should be largely dry and bright. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly below average for February, but it should be less cold than recent days.

Updated: 1233 on Thu 2 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Feb 2012 to Saturday 18 Feb 2012:

A northwest-southeast split is likely across the UK for much of the period through to mid-February. Southern, central and eastern areas should be largely dry and bright, but often cold or very cold with hard overnight frosts and some freezing fog patches. Further north and west conditions should be often less cold but windier, with bands of rain becoming slow-moving, giving snow on their forward edge and more generally over higher ground. During the middle weekend there are some signs that unsettled conditions to the northwest could extend further south with a risk of snow. During the following working week, although the northwest-southeast split should initially reassert itself, conditions in the northwest may increasingly spread south and eastwards to displace some of the drier, brighter and more settled weather.

Updated: 1259 on Sat 4 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Sunday 19 Feb 2012:

A northwest-southeast split is likely across the UK for much of the period through to mid-February. Southern, central and eastern areas should be largely dry and bright, but often cold or very cold with hard overnight frosts and some freezing fog patches. Further north and west conditions should be often less cold but windier, with bands of rain becoming slow-moving, giving snow on their forward edge and more generally over higher ground. Into the second weekend there are some signs that unsettled conditions further northwest could extend further south and east with a risk of more widespread snow, most likely across central and eastern areas of the UK, but confidence does remain quite low at this stage in the southeastward extent of any wintry weather.

Updated: 1150 on Sun 5 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

A northwest-southeast split is likely across the UK for much of the period through to mid-February. Southern, central and eastern areas should be largely dry and bright, but often cold or very cold with overnight frosts probable, freezing fog patches and occasional light wintry flurries. Further north and west conditions should be often less cold but breezier, with bands of rain becoming slow-moving, giving snow on their forward edge and more generally over higher ground. Into the second weekend there are some signs that unsettled conditions further northwest could extend further south and east with a risk of more widespread snow, most likely across central and eastern areas of the UK, but confidence does remain quite low at this stage in the southeastward extent of any wintry weather.

Updated: 1148 on Mon 6 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Tim Bland]

Edited shortly after to this,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

After a cold, largely dry start across central and southern areas of the UK, a gradual trend to a generally changeable weather pattern looks to take place as we move through to mid February. Rain across northwestern areas (snow on northern hills) will gradually extend southeastwards through this week, but will take some time to reach southern Britain. Here, a frost risk remains well into the week, along with the chance of some wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, most parts of the UK are expected to become generally unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds, especially in the north and west, but also at times further south and east. Still a risk of night time frosts at times, but not as cold as recently.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2012:

This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected.

Updated: 1230 on Mon 6 Feb 2012

[leicsnow]

Met Office have been acting very strange. First they suddenly changed their outlook completely yesterday and now they have made another drastic change, after just 3/4 hour since today's original update.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Tellow

[chionomaniac]

How about the simple explanation that the person responsible for uploading the information accidentally updated yesterdays forecast by accident, and after realising their mistake, corrected it for todays?

Edit I know that there are small changes.

Edited February 6, 2012 by chionomaniac

[SnowObsessor90]

One thing is for sure tommorows ECM 32 dayer will be a massive eye opener.

If it backs up the MetO's recent thinking well.... you know the rest.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Anonymous21

[recklessabandon]

BBC's update uses both patterns as the basis for their monthly update and offer both as a solution. Lots of uncertainty and not for the first time this winter. If anyone else sits on that fence it might just break under the weight....

[johnholmes]

I have made my comment about this in the model thread as the 16-30 day area.

Not impressed as an ex senior forecaster with them.

[Don]

One thing is for sure tommorows ECM 32 dayer will be a massive eye opener.

If it backs up the MetO's recent thinking well.... you know the rest.

Yes it will be interesting. After the Met Office's recent thinking I imagine tomorrow's ECM update will be somewhat different to what it's been showing recently sadly. We will see.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 21 Feb 2012:

Although the southeast may start cold, temperatures through this period in the southeast should be markedly less cold than recent days, although the risk of overnight frosts will still be present. Otherwise many southern and central areas should start fairly settled, although it may be rather cloudy. Further north it will be more unsettled, with mild and wet conditions separated by clearer and colder weather with some wintry showers. As February progresses the more unsettled conditions look likely to become dominant across the country, with the risk of some very windy days. However, it it could take some time to reach the far south, with the best of any drier and settled conditions here, but also a higher risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1212 on Tue 7 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Tim Bland]

Seems to go against the ECM 32 dayer which is strange. No mention of the 'S' whord at all now ?! Let see if they flip back to cold tommorow?

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2012:

This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected.

Updated: 1211 on Tue 7 Feb 2012

Printable view days 1 to 30

[Don]

Seems to go against the ECM 32 dayer which is strange. No mention of the 'S' whord at all now ?! Let see if they flip back to cold tommorow?

So today's updated ECM 32 Day outlook is still favouring cold conditions to prevail then? If this is the case then I imagine the Met Office may rather wait until Friday's update to gain confidence before changing their forecast back to a colder outlook?

Edited February 7, 2012 by Don

[Harsh Climate]

Seems to go against the ECM 32 dayer which is strange. No mention of the 'S' whord at all now ?! Let see if they flip back to cold tommorow?

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2012:

This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected.

Updated: 1211 on Tue 7 Feb 2012

Printable view days 1 to 30

I can completely understand that forecast given the signals we were seeing sunday/yesterday. If today's/tomorows output can continue in the same fashion as overnight, I would expect a colder perhaps snowier outlook come there next update.

[TEITS]

I would expect a colder perhaps snowier outlook come there next update.

Yes I agree with that. If the Met O changed the outlook today to a colder, wintry outlook and then the model output flipped back to what it was showing yesterday they would look rather silly. If I was responsible for the forecasts I would prefer to wait a few more runs before adjusting the forecast accordingly.

P.S John H. I wish I had a pound for every time you have posted that you're an ex Met O professional forecaster. I wouldn't have to do the Lotto and would probably be living in Canada or Alaska by now. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.png

[shedhead]

Yes I agree with that. If the Met O changed the outlook today to a colder, wintry outlook and then the model output flipped back to what it was showing yesterday they would look rather silly. If I was responsible for the forecasts I would prefer to wait a few more runs before adjusting the forecast accordingly.

P.S John H. I wish I had a pound for every time you have posted that you're an ex Met O professional forecaster. I wouldn't have to do the Lotto and would probably be living in Canada or Alaska by now. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.png

LOL... Could probably have bought Canada or Alaska to be fair...