Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Tim Bland]

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain.However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.

Updated: 1225 on Wed 25 Jan 2012

Edited January 25, 2012 by Tim Bland

[winter watcher]

Having just read the meto along with the latest bbc forecast they seem pretty confident of a eastern influence and would now say that its 70% - 30% into colder weather winning out. But what seems uncertain is how long will it last and how cold it will get. Although i have had confidence in GP LRF and would say that if this easterly happens it will stick around for a good while.

[feb1991blizzard]

50 /50 whether they will get off their fence I reckon. Will they take much notice of the GFS or just go with the UKMO / ECM? If it's the latter then it's game on I think. Either way they will be cagey about any snow distribution or depth of cold

Good call mate, they are being cagey but quite right, because no OP run has shown -10 uppers and blizzards sweeping the country in anything like the reliable and you cant really call bitter cold from an Easterly until you are sure what the cold pooling is going to be like, the only thing is they should have really mentioned the possibility of cold winning out initially with possible mild SW winds making another push later, rather than going with their all or nothing scenario, my biggest fear is the block ultimately sinking with the jet firing up again after a brief coldER spell, however teleconnections are on our side this time so we may be ok, as long as the Scandi block holds firm, far enough North and West for long enough then im not worried about the intial uppers temps, widespread snow will occur at some point, its all about strength and orientation of the block.

Edited January 25, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Don]

Fair play to the Met Office. I think they have certainly made the correct move indicating considerable uncertainty rather than purely just going along with the most likely scenario and then having to make big changes to the next forecast if the scenario changes. As for the forecast itself it's good that they're gaining confidence on a colder outlook but I don't want to get excited just yet. One thing that concerns me slightly is current solar activity. I'm concerned that this may have an effect on possibly helping fire up the jet stream as we go through Feb? Any thoughts?

[Tim Bland]

Refrence solar output I believe the effect of this take months to filter through so shouldn't affect the end of the winter

Re this line - "eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain"

Somewhere in the middle the rain will meet the colder air in the east so this could bring snow to some!?

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.

Updated: 1126 on Thu 26 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and some hill snow. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from the east. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.

Updated: 1200 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Don]

They have issued another update at 12.30 and although still uncertain they seem more confident now that colder conditions will prevail. However, they also mention the possibility of milder conditions at times for northern and westen parts.

Edited January 27, 2012 by Don

[Tim Bland]

They have issued another update at 12.30 and although still uncertain they seem more confident now that colder conditions will prevail. However, they also mention the possibility of milder conditions at times for northern and westen parts.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. At the same time westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and sometimes snow on hills. Temperatures will probably be below average, and windchill will make it feel colder still when exposed to the easterly winds. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather seems likely. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with central and eastern areas being most prone. However, milder conditions may well push into the north and west at times.

Updated: 1230 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Feb 2012 to Saturday 11 Feb 2012:

Mostly settled and cold leading up to the first weekend, especially towards the southeast of England, with widespread overnight frost and some wintry coastal showers towards the east. However, northwestern parts will soon become cloudier, more unsettled, but milder with spells of rain and some snow, the snow mainly on hills. Although there is considerable uncertainty, the bright, cold conditions will probably continue for a time into the second week in the east. However, the unsettled but milder conditions in the west will probably spread erratically further east with time, introducing spells of rain and some snow, again mainly on hills. This progression may be coupled with strong winds and possibly gales in northwestern parts.

Updated: 1237 on Sat 28 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Don]

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Feb 2012 to Saturday 11 Feb 2012:

Mostly settled and cold leading up to the first weekend, especially towards the southeast of England, with widespread overnight frost and some wintry coastal showers towards the east. However, northwestern parts will soon become cloudier, more unsettled, but milder with spells of rain and some snow, the snow mainly on hills. Although there is considerable uncertainty, the bright, cold conditions will probably continue for a time into the second week in the east. However, the unsettled but milder conditions in the west will probably spread erratically further east with time, introducing spells of rain and some snow, again mainly on hills. This progression may be coupled with strong winds and possibly gales in northwestern parts.

Updated: 1237 on Sat 28 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Oh dear!

[Bolton67]

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Feb 2012 to Saturday 11 Feb 2012:

Mostly settled and cold leading up to the first weekend, especially towards the southeast of England, with widespread overnight frost and some wintry coastal showers towards the east. However, northwestern parts will soon become cloudier, more unsettled, but milder with spells of rain and some snow, the snow mainly on hills. Although there is considerable uncertainty, the bright, cold conditions will probably continue for a time into the second week in the east. However, the unsettled but milder conditions in the west will probably spread erratically further east with time, introducing spells of rain and some snow, again mainly on hills. This progression may be coupled with strong winds and possibly gales in northwestern parts.

Updated: 1237 on Sat 28 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

For some reason i dont like the sound of that...the MetO have been spot on so far.

The Ecm and GFS can show what they like but for the Meto to come out with this is very concerning.

[egret]

Hmm, not sure about this as Met Office is currently sending out email alerts for snow tomorrow in the SW (away from the Southern coastal fringes) yet this does not seem to show in their local forecasts. I suspect this is due to great uncertainty so forecast shows rain but the warning shows possibility of snow.

If this is the case the other forecasts might also be just tipping the balance at 55% probable leaving a colder option not showing as its 45% probable.

The other possibility is that the forecasts have yet to catch up with latest outputs.

How do others feel about the current METO forecasts?

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 3 Feb 2012 to Sunday 12 Feb 2012:

Staying cold or very cold for the end of this week and next weekend. Some wintry showers then likely near North Sea coastal areas, elsewhere conditions largely dry and settled with some sunshine, but also frosty with freezing fog patches. Meanwhile, the far west and northwest will turn cloudier with occasional rain or hill snow. Heading into the first full of week of February a slow, gradual change to more unsettled and less cold conditions is expected from the west. However, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the timing of this change with some parts of the UK hanging on to cold weather until quite late in this forecast period. This transition to more unsettled conditions may well be heralded by a brief spell of snow, especially on the higher ground.

Updated: 1208 on Sun 29 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[billy]

It looks like they are covering almost any possibility here and imo shows that they really have no more idea of whats going to happen over the next couple of weeks than any of the more knowledgeable guys on the net-weather model discussion forum

[leicsnow]

Well they say that unsettled milder weather could well gradually return from the second week onwards, but in their 16 to 30 day forecast they talk about cold to very cold conditions with some significant snow possible almost exclusively. Obviously they expect the cold conditions to return.

[billy]

Well they say that unsettled milder weather could well gradually return from the second week onwards, but in their 16 to 30 day forecast they talk about cold to very cold conditions with some significant snow possible almost exclusively. Obviously they expect the cold conditions to return.

Yes , somewhat contradicting themselves i think. In other words as i said they are as unsure as the rest of us. Which of is probably a good sign imo.

[KTtom]

I don't think they will change their longer range forecast until they are sure what will happen in the 6-15 day period. Not looking particularly good for a snow-fest at the moment thou. As has been said, the only blizzards and 6 foot snowfalls predicted are on the model thread!

Edited January 29, 2012 by KTtom

[johnholmes]

It looks like they are covering almost any possibility here and imo shows that they really have no more idea of whats going to happen over the next couple of weeks than any of the more knowledgeable guys on the net-weather model discussion forum

from a very snowy Wengen that does not seem a very contstructive comment?

Of course they know far more than anyone on here, ex professional or deeply knowledgeable amateur, they forecast as they see it with huge amounts of data we never see and a highly qualified senior forecaster.

No doubt in spite of my promises not to get involved I will once I get home and sorted.

re another comment somewhere I read just now about data I was looking at, I think it referred to a POSSIBLE link re 30mb polar temperatures and cold spells for the UK.

Yes its something Im looking into but do not expect any post from me about it for several months?

[DAVID SNOW]

from a very snowy Wengen that does not seem a very contstructive comment?

Of course they know far more than anyone on here, ex professional or deeply knowledgeable amateur, they forecast as they see it with huge amounts of data we never see and a highly qualified senior forecaster.

No doubt in spite of my promises not to get involved I will once I get home and sorted.

re another comment somewhere I read just now about data I was looking at, I think it referred to a POSSIBLE link re 30mb polar temperatures and cold spells for the UK.

Yes its something Im looking into but do not expect any post from me about it for several months?

Not very constructive you say,but true though.

Why oh why can they not just say in their extended outlook that they simply do not know what is going to happen,instead of offering up the possability that it could be very mild or very cold,very wet or very dry,or bright sunshine with slate grey skies.

[billy]

from a very snowy Wengen that does not seem a very contstructive comment?

Of course they know far more than anyone on here, ex professional or deeply knowledgeable amateur, they forecast as they see it with huge amounts of data we never see and a highly qualified senior forecaster.

No doubt in spite of my promises not to get involved I will once I get home and sorted.

re another comment somewhere I read just now about data I was looking at, I think it referred to a POSSIBLE link re 30mb polar temperatures and cold spells for the UK.

Yes its something Im looking into but do not expect any post from me about it for several months?

Hi John, yes im not knocking the met office as they undoubtedly know their stuff and as you say have a huge amount of data available to them . All im saying is , the fact that they are relatively uncertain about the next two weeks shows the uncertainty at the minute and their 6-15 day and 16-30 day forecasts are quite likely to chop and change over the next few days. :)Enjoy your hols and see you back in the model discussion thread soon i expect.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 4 Feb 2012 to Monday 13 Feb 2012:

Turning unsettled and less cold from the northwest during the weekend as a band of rain moves across the country. There is a risk of rain falling as snow on the leading edge and also falling on frozen surfaces giving a transient widespread ice risk. Heading into the first full of week of February though, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the forecast with a risk of the colder easterly conditions returning at least across the east and south east. The most likely scenario is for further weather systems to push in from the west but stalling over the country giving an increasing risk of snow in central and eastern parts, especially over higher ground. Temperatures probably below normal in the east but near normal at times in the west.

Updated: 1113 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Tim Bland]

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 14 Feb 2012:

Sunday is likely to be unsettled and mostly cloudy with a band of rain and snow lying north to south across the country. Although there remains considerable uncertainty regarding exactly where this band will lie central and eastern parts are most likely to see snow and/or ice, with perhaps some significant falls of snow in places. Less cold in the north and west, but remaining cold elsewhere. Into next week, eastern, central and southern areas are likely to become more settled with a good deal of dry weather. Temperatures here are likely to stay cold, perhaps even very cold for some. Northern and northwestern areas then remaining unsettled with rain and strong winds at times but less cold. The cold theme looks likely to continue into the following week.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 29 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average much of the time. This would also suggest rainfall amounts being largely near or below average in many areas but, possibly, above average over southern Britain. Given below average temperatures are expected, some snow is also likely at times.

Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012

:clapping: :clapping: :clapping: :clapping:

Edited January 31, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Don]

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 14 Feb 2012:

Sunday is likely to be unsettled and mostly cloudy with a band of rain and snow lying north to south across the country. Although there remains considerable uncertainty regarding exactly where this band will lie central and eastern parts are most likely to see snow and/or ice, with perhaps some significant falls of snow in places. Less cold in the north and west, but remaining cold elsewhere. Into next week, eastern, central and southern areas are likely to become more settled with a good deal of dry weather. Temperatures here are likely to stay cold, perhaps even very cold for some. Northern and northwestern areas then remaining unsettled with rain and strong winds at times but less cold. The cold theme looks likely to continue into the following week.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 29 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average much of the time. This would also suggest rainfall amounts being largely near or below average in many areas but, possibly, above average over southern Britain. Given below average temperatures are expected, some snow is also likely at times.

Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012

:clapping: :clapping: :clapping: :clapping:

Hmm doesn't look too shabby does it?!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Hmm doesn't look too shabby does it?!

I am more than happy with that.