Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

A slight downgrade by the meto I would say.

Slight yes but the chance is still there, also the 16 to 30 day update is unchanged

[AWD]

The bit we are interested in, the last few days of Jan ( last sentence ) has remained exactly the same since Monday??

Thats all that matters for now aint it??

[warrenb]

A change of wording I would say, removal of significant, but it might just be the person typing it.

[Summer Sun]

A change of wording I would say, removal of significant, but it might just be the person typing it.

As I said before tomorrow's update is key as this is when the ECM 32 day outlook updates.

[AWD]

I think that they just missed out that would! The milder scenario remains slightly more probable as it has been all week! I wouldnt worry about the removal of the word "Significant" for now!

Its when they remove the words "snow" and "cold" we start to worry! Lol!

Edited January 19, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[Aaron]

Both scenarios are just a probable as one another - so I'm not sure why people think the milder scenario is more likely..

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 25 Jan 2012 to Friday 3 Feb 2012:

Starting generally mild and unsettled, with spells of rain, and hill snow in the north, clearing eastwards. Clearer, colder and more showery conditions will then follow later in the working week, most likely continuing into the weekend. These showers are likely to be wintry in the north with further hill snow, with conditions also occasionally windy, especially to the north and west. Some change to more settled but colder conditions is then likely to develop later in the weekend. Thereafter there is considerable uncertainty for the final few days of the outlook period, with an almost equal probability of a more changeable weather type returning, or much colder conditions developing across the UK, with snow in places and widespread frost.

Updated: 1228 on Fri 20 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[TEITS]

Note yesterday they said the milder option was slightly more likely. However today they suggest an equal opportunity!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Note yesterday they said the milder option was slightly more likely. However today they suggest an equal opportunity!

Well they would be sued by the pc brigade otherwise for showing favouritism

[Methuselah]

Note yesterday they said the milder option was slightly more likely. However today they suggest an equal opportunity!

I'd guess that that's because, at such time-scales as these, no one really knows?

[UV-RAY]

I'd guess that that's because, at such time-scales as these, no one really knows?

So for all the costs of these so called super computers, they have about as much of an idea as we do.

Ps The above statement is said in jest.

[steve1971]

I woldnt exspect them to be saying snow and cold thay would be verry red in the face when it dosnt happen,no one realy can tell more than 48 hours let alone 10 days.its the weather and we are a little blip in the atlantic our weather changes so much thats what keeps us chating and trying to forcast it.just dont belive the mods becouse thay will show u stuff right out in f1 then next run its gone 24-48hours is normaly 90% right.

,,

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 26 Jan 2012 to Saturday 4 Feb 2012:

After the mild, rather cloudy and wet spell midweek, the unsettled conditions should continue, with colder, more showery conditions and sunny spells expected by the end of the working week, most likely continuing into the weekend. These showers are likely to be wintry in the north with further hill snow, with conditions also occasionally windy, especially to the north and west. Some change to more settled but colder conditions is then likely to develop later in the weekend. Thereafter there is considerable uncertainty for the final few days of the outlook period, with an almost equal probability of a more changeable weather type returning, or much colder conditions developing across the UK, with snow in places and widespread frost.

Updated: 1137 on Sat 21 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_pressure.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 27 Jan 2012 to Sunday 5 Feb 2012:

Staying unsettled across the country at first with further scattered showers. The heaviest and most frequent showers are likely in the north and west at first but these tending to transfer south and east during the weekend. The showers are likely to be also wintry in the north with further hill snow, with conditions also occasionally windy, especially to the north and west. Towards the beginning of next week though, some change to more settled but colder conditions is then likely to develop with nighttimes often frosty. From midweek onwards though there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, with an almost equal probability of a more changeable weather type returning, or much colder conditions developing across the UK, with snow in places and widespread frost.

Updated: 1113 on Sun 22 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 28 Jan 2012 to Monday 6 Feb 2012:

Southern and eastern parts of the UK are likely to become largely dry through the weekend with clear and sunny spells developing. Nighttimes though will see the risk of frost and fog return with some of the fog slow to clear in places. Northern and western parts though are likely to see more in the way of cloud, wind and rain at times, but temperatures here will remain around average. The unsettled conditions in the north are likely to become restricted to the far northwest by midweek as high pressure is expected to build. However from midweek, uncertainty remains in the forecast, with an almost equal probability of the unsettled conditions spreading back across the UK, or much colder conditions developing nationwide, with snow in places and widespread frosts.

Updated: 1114 on Mon 23 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 29 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 7 Feb 2012:

Southeastern parts of the UK are likely to be largely dry on Sunday and into the start of next week, with clear and sunny spells, and a risk of overnight frost and fog. There is a risk of wintry showers developing near the North Sea and English Channel coasts. Northwestern areas are likely to be cloudier and windier with rain at times and perhaps some hill snow. Temperatures are likely to be average, locally mild in the northwest but colder in the southeast. The weather looks likely to become more settled during next week, although there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, with an almost equal probability of the unsettled conditions spreading back across the UK, or much colder conditions developing nationwide, with snow in places and widespread frosts.

Updated: 1148 on Tue 24 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Weathizard]

UK Outlook for Sunday 29 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 7 Feb 2012:

Southeastern parts of the UK are likely to be largely dry on Sunday and into the start of next week, with clear and sunny spells, and a risk of overnight frost and fog. There is a risk of wintry showers developing near the North Sea and English Channel coasts. Northwestern areas are likely to be cloudier and windier with rain at times and perhaps some hill snow. Temperatures are likely to be average, locally mild in the northwest but colder in the southeast. The weather looks likely to become more settled during next week, although there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, with an almost equal probability of the unsettled conditions spreading back across the UK, or much colder conditions developing nationwide, with snow in places and widespread frosts.

Updated: 1148 on Tue 24 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

I like this, from an IMBY point of view. Hopefully this will continue to upgrade for people elsewhere in the UK

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

UK Outlook for Sunday 29 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 7 Feb 2012:

Southeastern parts of the UK are likely to be largely dry on Sunday and into the start of next week, with clear and sunny spells, and a risk of overnight frost and fog. There is a risk of wintry showers developing near the North Sea and English Channel coasts. Northwestern areas are likely to be cloudier and windier with rain at times and perhaps some hill snow. Temperatures are likely to be average, locally mild in the northwest but colder in the southeast. The weather looks likely to become more settled during next week, although there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, with an almost equal probability of the unsettled conditions spreading back across the UK, or much colder conditions developing nationwide, with snow in places and widespread frosts.

Updated: 1148 on Tue 24 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Looks to me as thought the 6-15 dayer is siding with the easterly with the mentioning of wintry showers in the North sea an Englis Channel coasts.

[SLEETY]

yet heading the right way in that forecast.

[chionomaniac]

I think that the met office have been very wise in the way that they are hedging their bets. I have known a few time when the cold Klaxons have been rung only for the milder option to be correct.

It looks likely that we get colder this weekend and slowly but surely if the runs stay the same then that equal probability outlook will tip in colds favour.

[phil nw.]

Yes we can see the Easterly type is considered but not untill early next week.Some stalling of the fronts in the N.Sea over the weekend with that short wave near the low countries would be the wintry showers they are considering.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Still that South Westerly drift up North untill early next week.

Edited January 24, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[feb1991blizzard]

Got a feeling they are just about to come off the fence, not sure whether it will be for better or worse though.

[Tim Bland]

Got a feeling they are just about to come off the fence, not sure whether it will be for better or worse though.

50 /50 whether they will get off their fence I reckon. Will they take much notice of the GFS or just go with the UKMO / ECM? If it's the latter then it's game on I think. Either way they will be cagey about any snow distribution or depth of cold

[Stuart]

seem like there are late with the updates

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 8 Feb 2012:

At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.

Updated: 1225 on Wed 25 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html