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ZONE 51

Winter Prediction Poll 2010/11

Winter 2010/11   

196 members have voted

  1. 1. Tick your thoughts?

    • Severe Cold Winter
      75
    • Mild and Wet
      7
    • A Normal UK Winter
      30
    • Mostly Mild With Cold Spells
      27
    • Wet and Cold
      13
    • Dry and Cold
      30
    • Atlantic Winter
      8
    • Dont Know
      6


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Judging by the results so far you'd have thought it was the Winter preference poll. Anyway, i forsee a more average winter of milder spells interspersed with colder, snowy interludes.

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As Blast From The Past is predicting, I also predict a very severe winter. '40's style winter'

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I haven't voted in the poll because the teleconnections and analogues are pointing to a season of two halves, with frequent northerlies in November and December followed by frequent westerlies and north-westerlies in January and February, barring a major stratospheric warming event in February which could temporarily switch the pattern to something a lot colder/snowier.

If we end up with a major stratospheric warming event in February we could end up with something similar to 2008/09, maybe even a bit colder and snowier than that. Another "cold and snowy" possibility is a lesser version of 1950/51, which had a very cold December and then a cool zonal January & February with frequent polar maritime air- it was the snowiest winter of the 20th century in some upland areas.

However, I think a winter like 2001/02 can't be ruled out either- I remember the frequent northerlies in November & December (including the notably potent early blast of 8/9 November 2001 as well as the ones around Christmas) and then rampant mild westerlies and south-westerlies until the last week of March.

Bottom line: probably relatively cold and snowy by recent standards but not far from longer-term averages, and a lot less cold/snowy than last winter.

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Judging by the results so far you'd have thought it was the Winter preference poll. Anyway, i forsee a more average winter of milder spells interspersed with colder, snowy interludes.

If it helps I see the Atlantic firing up again (we ignore it at our peril).

As I have never been accurate in any prediction I have made based on Grandma’s Tea Leaves sod law no doubt this time.

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Think it's going to be severely cold personally. I have never had a frost in August before. Thinks seem to be pointing towards a cold winter. Wont go into it all. People have explained it on the winter forum.

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Ah... but what does "Normal UK Winter" mean to people?

And isn't an "Atlantic winter" the same since the prevailing winds for the UK come from the Atlantic?

Also where is "mild and dry"?

Yes that is a possibility in the same way a cool and dry summer is possible.

Winter 1991-92 was milder than average and dry. 1975-76 is another.

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Yes, I think the poll has its limitations- I think it's very difficult for such a poll to be effective unless it's either at a very basic level (e.g. cold & wet, cold & dry, warm & wet, warm & dry) or very detailed to cover the range of possibilities.

I'm guessing that "Atlantic winter" means westerly-dominated, though that isn't the end of the story as far as cold/snow lovers are concerned, e.g. 1983/84 and 1993/94 were mostly westerly-dominated winters but were sometimes snowy in places, especially the north, while at the other extreme we had 1988/89.

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I've gone for mostly mild with cold spells. If there is a lot of mid-latitude blocking (as GP hinted at in the other thread) there would be quite a few occasions where the block was poorly orientated, leaving us in a mild flow. However, there would also be a good chance of frequent cold snaps if there was blocking in the Mid Atlantic and low pressure to the east.

My gut feeling is that we'll see something similar to 1969-70.

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I chose cold and wet. I dont expect a winter on the scale of last year tbh. Perhaps more at 08/09 levels. The Atlantic may be more dominant at times i feel especially after new year. However there should be a good amount of snow and cold spells.

This poll is clearly dominated by people "wanting" a severe cold winter, not those "predicting" a severe cold winter.

Things could all change but i dont expect anything amazing this coming winter though i hope im wrong!

Hence via choosing this option i reserve limited optimism and not to lead to disappoint this winter.

I feel we will have a problem that the winter of 2009/10 has just raised expectations like the Summer of 2003 and 2006 so anything even slightly below those standards and it will be a rubbish winter with plenty of moaning. :cold:

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I voted for cold and dry, simply because thats what I expect from having a developing La Nina. I've lost the file I posted on here last winter season that showed all the El Nino & Nina winters dating back to the fifties, the intensities and a Very Snowy, Snowy or Snowless rating and a basic discription of the weather and if I remember rightly, of all the previous La Nina winters, 80% were cold but largely snowless and were preceeded by wet and windy Autumns.

So yeah, at this point im going with Cold and Dry. That said, I'm still going to find the upcoming winter and snow hunt exciting, so let the annual NW addiction begin !

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Dry and cold....

I don't think we'll reach severe cold territory, we'll see a mainly dry winter with a few Wet and Snowy spells courtesy of a few Northerly topplers and NWsterlys. Other than that, plenty of HP around and at some points a biting Easterly will set up giving some large snowfall at times in the SE and E. I'd even go for a winter CET of about 3.1c

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It's been ages since we had a completely mild and dull December. 2006 was mild (CET 6.5c) but contained a cold spell mid month with fog and frost. December 1988 was the last really mild one (CET 7.5c)

We're well, well ovderdue a mild one. Perhaps this year is the year?

Anyway I've gone with Mostly Mild With Cold Spells. Mild and dull December and January with cold weather generally dominating much of February. Something like;

December 7.1c

January 5.4c

February 2.6c

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I dont see this winter as cold or as prolonged cool/cold conditions as the one just past, I hesitate on saying it will be less snowy but that could be down to the fact we may well get one or two really good dumpings across the country as opposed to last years long lived but oft smaller falls.

Closer to 08-09 then than 09-10.

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I've gone for mostly mild with cold spells. If there is a lot of mid-latitude blocking (as GP hinted at in the other thread) there would be quite a few occasions where the block was poorly orientated, leaving us in a mild flow. However, there would also be a good chance of frequent cold snaps if there was blocking in the Mid Atlantic and low pressure to the east.

My gut feeling is that we'll see something similar to 1969-70.

1969-70 wasn't mostly mild with cold spells- much the opposite! Northerly winds were unusually frequent from November through to April- this is certainly a possibility for the coming season but relies upon the blocks mostly holding firm and being based mostly to the W & NW rather than getting south of the British Isles.

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Even with the current and forecasted ingredients previously mentioned in this thread, I don't expect a winter as severe as last year, but I do expect one similar to 1995/1996, which offered many below freezing nights, plus several snowy periods. I do however, forecast lying snow in the south east before the end of November. I think the end of November until the new year will be a bitter period before westerly dominated weather in January. Feb will be a mixed month of warmer and colder spells. More warm than cold.

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voted for Atlantic winter, is the most likely after all, not what I want, but the poll is predictions, but I see mild and wet is on there, same as Atlantic really, and so is mostly mild with cold spells, seems to be duplicates on the poll?

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