Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Major Hurricane Julia


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

As I said in my last post, Julia has moved eastwards towards the Azores as an extratropical depression over the last few days. As you say Cookie, the system appears to be coming back, as some shallow convection appears to be fring over a more concentrated LLC. Any thoughts anyone? Could Julia comeback as a hybrid or subtropical cyclone?

post-1820-002705700 1285233217_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

Intriguing little system as Julia continues to surprise us. Conditions are not favourable for tropical cyclone formation with sst’s of 22°C to 23°C and being surrounded by what appears to be a fairly dry atmospheric envelope. Despite this she has certainly regained tropical characteristics with convection centred over the LLC and noticeable banding features forming to the north and south, another problem at the moment is that convection remains fairly shallow so it will be interesting to see if this fires up as daytime temperatures increase.

I seem to remember Tropical Storm Grace formed at a similar latitude last year which the Noaa were slow to pick up on so it will be interesting to see if and when they start issuing advisories again for Julia!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

To add to my last post, I contacted the NOAA about this system this morning and one of their meteorologists has now replied stating...

"The system remains largely baroclinic, attached to a frontal boundary with an occasional burst of convection.

It does not currently meet the criteria for a tropical cyclone."

Far be it for me to challenge the view of a meteorologist but the frontal boundary appears to be weakening as we speak which could result in this system becoming 'stand alone' again, so we can remain in hope!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

Last one from me now!!..

Noaa now observing this system again on their weather outlook...

"THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA IS

LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS

DISTURBANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY

CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS actually has the system heading east, away from the Azores.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The remnant low of Julia is STILL out there, drifting southwestwards and is now located around 29N, 52W. The LLC is still wel defined but only has a few isolated cells of convection appearing from time to time. Shear is moderate and the air is quite dry, but sea temperatures will begin to increase the further ex-Julia heads west. Unlikely to re-develop, but there still is that small risk there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The remnant low of Julia continues to head westwards and is now much further southwest than the point where the storm became extratropical. Waters are warm enough for re-development, but the air is still very dry and shear moderate. Interesting to note however, that a pretty large cell of convection has fired up over the LLC, and has persisted and grown larger over the last 6 hours. Like previous nights however, the dry air will probably cause dissipation of the convection again by morning. The LLC is still well defined, and the further westwards ex-Julia gets, the greater the risk of revelopment IMO. The evening flare ups of convection have really saved the circulation. Quite interesting how Igor got whisked away to the northeast to leave Julia behind to drift southwestwards back into the tropics. There is a 10-20% chance of redevelopment IMO, a small risk but a risk nonetheless.

Edited by Somerset Squall
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

Convection is still firing up over the LLC which is now located at approx 30°N/57°W and over warmer sst's of 27°C. The system appears to be embedded within a dry envelope of air and with estimated central pressure of around 1015mb, I would guess that redevelopment appears unlikely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...