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Paranoid

Major Hurricane Julia

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Yet another Cape Verde system, should go onto become Julia fairly swiftly. Tropical storm warnings already issued for Cape Verde islands.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 121453

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010

1100 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...TROPICAL

STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.7N 21.4W

ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO

TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...

FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24

HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.4 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO

PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM

TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING

AREA TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN

ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

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TD12 has been caught by the steering currents of Hurricane Ike and is also moving faster than Hurricane Ike which is why it will be steered northward. Conditions are however good for development so we should see at least a category 2 hurricane, however the eastern Atlantic is not renowned for having strong recurving hurricanes, it will also be caught by the Jet Stream and wisked towards us, which is why i am suprised no models are showing this yet unless it recurves back towards the USA.

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TD12 has been caught by the steering currents of Hurricane Ike and is also moving faster than Hurricane Ike which is why it will be steered northward. Conditions are however good for development so we should see at least a category 2 hurricane, however the eastern Atlantic is not renowned for having strong recurving hurricanes, it will also be caught by the Jet Stream and wisked towards us, which is why i am suprised no models are showing this yet unless it recurves back towards the USA.

you a few years to late for hurricane IKE mate :whistling:

201009121700msg2visirbc.jpg

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Tropical Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Julia, with intensity rising to 35kts. The storm has good banding on the western side, and although convection is increasing near the LLC, there is no central dense overcast as yet. I agree with SB that Julia is likely to be feeling some steering influence from cat 4 Igor to the west, which is sending Julia further north. Julia still has a couple days of favourable conditions, and it seems likely Julia will come a hurricane before shear potentially increases in a few days time, and waters become cooler.

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Shear has eased over Julia, and the storm has taken this advantage to strengthen to 45kts. Julia is fairly small and has already developed a central dense overcast feature. Julia is expected to become a hurricane by late tomorrow and there is a small chance she may do so before then as the storm does look a lot better than this morning (when convection near the centre was sparse and mostly confined to a band on the western edge) which indicates a good rate of strengthening. Julia has about 3 days to strengthen before the storm is expected to be blasted by Igor's outflow as the latter storm stops moving westwards away from Julia. Strengthening is not expected to be rapid as waters slowly become cooler on the general northwesterly heading.

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Julia is now a Hurricane and looking pretty good really.

JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS

OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DURING

THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT

ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR THAT VALUE. ON THIS BASIS...JULIA IS

UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SPEED SET AT 65 KT.

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20100914.1100.msg2.x.vis1km.12LJULIA.60kts-991mb-157N-284W.100pc.jpg

The couple

34986627.jpg

Sheesh,

Pictures like those make me realise how lucky we are to be able to look at things like Igor and Julia in all their glory.

fantastic

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Julia has continued to strengthen further and is now a Cat 4 with 135mph winds and a pressure of 950mb. Also worth noting that Julia is the strongest storm ever east of 35W.

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If Igor fails (dry air indigestion) then Julia may just take a slingshot from him (and not a kiss of death) ending up who knows where at who knows what strength?

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I've been having trouble finding Julia's eye on the satellite loops, but it emerges periodically and is a fairly small eye. Looks like it's becoming more defined on the later images.

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Here's the eye and EW on Microwave, not looking good and slightly open, WV shows a very lopsided eye strength with one side weak and the other strong, I have to say she doesn't look like a CAT 4 atm by quite a long way.

post-6326-042597500 1284556428_thumb.jpg

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A most impressive bout of rapid intensification. According to Jeff Masters, it's only the second time in recorded history that two Category 4 hurricanes have churned simultaneously in the Atlantic (the only other occasion on record happened in 1926).

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truely stunning pictures in here absolutely brillant hurricaine season so far before i went to bed and had a feeling julia was gonna be a beauty.

pops in now wow shes dam sexy if you ask me love her she reminds me of my misus angry lol.

and in 1928/29 was a very cold winter 1928/29...5.1c...VERY COLD.

although this is the hurricaine thread sorry lol.

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I returned from Gran Canaria this morning, and without a doubt we received the effects of Hurricane Julia while we were there, albeit minor. 2-3 days ago, high cloud and RAPIDLY rising humidity came steaming in from the South, coupled with increase in wave activity (we were on the beach)...the waves really intensified during these two days, which I am 99.9% certain was a result of Julia long way off to the South - radar appeared to back this up. The first time, albeit as I said minor, time I've experienced weather resulting directly from a hurricane.

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Interesting to note that Harry, especially with the effects hurricanes have on weather on a larger scale.

Julia has shrunk and weakened over the last day. Intensity has fallen to 75kts. Shear and dry air has eroded most of the convection leaving just a modest amount around what is still a fairly well defined eye. Julia is racing northwestwards at a speed of 22kts which is faster than average and much faster than Igor to the west which has been moving at speeds as slow as 7kts. Shear has eased a touch but waters are now becoming cooler so gradual weakening should continue. As Igor turns to the northeast, the distance between the two storms will dramatically reduce, but Julia is likely to dissipate before absorption can occur.

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Intensity has remained at 75kts today, but Julia has now lost her eye and is looking worse for wear as the outflow from the massive Hurricane Igor is really blasting a lot of shear over Julia now. As Julia is fairly small, her demise could be quite quick.

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Well, it appears Julia's demise has not been as quick as I thought. Intensity fell to 45kts yesterday, but impressively, the storm has managed to maintain this intensity today. At times, 50kts of shear has buffeted the storm, and each time Julia is on death's door, it eases a little allowing a blow up of convection. Julia is under heavy shear again now, but is still maintaining a good amount of convection east of the centre. Julia is moving east-northeastwards now, following a northeasterly motion. The huge Igor to the west is still expected to eventually absorb Julia, but not for another day or so.

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Julia has said no to Igor, and has instead accelerated eastwards away from him. Julia has said no to dissipation and has instead become an extratropical storm. Julia could persist as an extratropical storm as it moves generally eastwards through the next several days. Strong shear and cool sea temps should prevent tropical re-development as Julia passes near the Azores Islands but there is a very small risk there.

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