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The eleventh tropical storm of the season has formed just southwest of Taiwan. The storm's intensity is 35kts. 11W has some very deep convection sprawling west and south of the LLC. However, convection is lacking on the northern side due to the proximity of an upper level low located northeast of Taiwan which is supressing 11W's poleward outflow and inflicting moderate shear on the storm. The ULL should move away from 11W which may allow some modest intensification before the northwesterly track takes the storm inland a hundred or so miles up the coast from Hong Kong, China.

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the West Pacific is picking up fast now

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11W has undergone some unexpected and explosive intensification today, with intensity rising to 65kts. Thus, 11W is now Typhoon Meranti. Meranti has a very small CDO with a tiny well defined eye. Dual outflow channels have developed aiding the rapid intensification, and shear has dropped as the upper level low has moved away. Meranti's severe weather only extends a little way from the centre but this typhoon will still pack more of a punch than previously expected. Meranti could intensify further before landfall in 9-12hrs time. Meranti has swung north and should cross the coast of China and dissipate over land within 36hrs.

post-1820-067984900 1284054433_thumb.jpg

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