Winter 2010/2011

[beng]

looks like a very cold winter in western canada if those charts were to come true

Sure does - get your snow chains ready! I'd imagine with the PDO now possibly into a new long term cool phase winters in W Canada and Alaska will be noticably colder than were seen say beween the mid 80s and 2005.

It'll be interesting to see whether his thoughts prove correct as normally La Nina is associated with a positive AO and strong zonal flow across the Atlantic - but we have low solar activity now, a negative PDO (which tends to make the jet more meridional) and then the extreme AMO - focused south of Greenland - which will be releasing heat into the atmosphere during the winter months and could possibly aid blocking.

I'm interested in the talk of disruption to the Gulf stream - looking at the data it's definitely still there, but looks to have lost most of the branch which normally flows towards Ireland and then North towards Norway. A loss of this branch would be consistent with the warming South of Greenland since more of the energy would travel on the remaining branch. I guess it's a chicken and the egg scenario though, because the last year or so has been dominated in the mean by negative NAO conditions, which would naturally create surface level winds that would act against the Irish branch of the NAD and focus the energy South of Greenland. Is it the NAO driving the NAD disruption - or the other way round though?! If there is indeed a disruption in the Irish branch, then as the nights become longer than the days, we ought to see a noticable drop in Sea Temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic (relative to the mean) - so we should have a firm indication within the next 6 weeks IMO.

Edited September 10, 2010 by beng

[summer blizzard]

Sure does - get your snow chains ready! I'd imagine with the PDO now possibly into a new long term cool phase winters in W Canada and Alaska will be noticably colder than were seen say beween the mid 80s and 2005.

It'll be interesting to see whether his thoughts prove correct as normally La Nina is associated with a positive AO and strong zonal flow across the Atlantic - but we have low solar activity now, a negative PDO (which tends to make the jet more meridional) and then the extreme AMO - focused south of Greenland - which will be releasing heat into the atmosphere during the winter months and could possibly aid blocking.

I'm interested in the talk of disruption to the Gulf stream - looing at the data it's definitely still there, but looks to have lost most of the branch which normally flows towards Ireland and then North towards Norway. A loss of this branch would be consistent with the warming South of Greenland since more of the energy would travel on the remaining branch. I guess it's a chicken and the egg scenario though, because the last year or so has been dominated in the mean by negative NAO conditions, which would naturally create surface level winds that would act against the Irish branch of the NAD and focus the energy South of Greenland. Is it the NAO driving the NAD disruption - or the other way round though?! If there is indeed a disruption in the Irish branch, then as the nights become longer than the days, we ought to see a noticable drop in Sea Temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic (relative to the mean) - so we should have a firm indication within the next 6 weeks IMO.

La Nina is not normally associated with a positive AO and strong zonal flow, quite the opposite in fact during winter, at least over the UK.

My analysis on the previous page shows that La Nina statistically correlates to cool, dry winters.

The reason for the misconception is because many of the La Nina events over the last ten years have been either dual peak events of peaking in winter. Winter 2009 was a classic example of a weakening La Nina in combination with a mature +QBO and led to a cold winter.

[Guest]

I am starting to develop a theory - that is that weather is an intelligent creature but also perverse. It knows when we have lots of people clamouring for a nice cold winter with lots of snow, so it decides to do entirely the opposite.

My advice is to sit back, keep calm, then you will be hit by the mother of all blizzards when you least expect it.

[cheeky_monkey]

The weather network are predicting a much colder and stormier winter across Canada..dont know what that would means for the uk?

[Isolated Frost]

Met Monkey are going to the cold side now, they really think this gulf stream thing means much colder winters, some saying we'll get the winters of places like Central Sweden and Western Russia, also, it seems they're going for the first blast to occur in mid November, like weatheronline!

Edited September 11, 2010 by Nuâ„¢ Design

[blitzen]

I have never seen Joe laminate floori's European blog site so quiet! His last post was 2nd September and all it contains is a short statement saying that he was wrong in his prediction that global temperatures would start to fall in August with a promise of his early winter thoughts by the end of the month. Makes you wonder if Stirling's comments about the 'powers that be' getting to him are correct. One gets the feeling that he is in the huff which is understandable if he has indeed been told to shut up! You only have to look at Steve Murr's signature to get a flavour of laminate floori's thoughts for the future. His blog is headed 'Up to my neck in Alligators' I wonder if he was referring to the human species? We will see.

Edited September 11, 2010 by Blitzen

[Gavin P]

I suspect its more a case that Joe's focus is on the ever increasing hurricane season.

Edited September 11, 2010 by Gavin P

[AderynCoch]

In the 1916/1917 winter season CET was 1.9C Dec, 1.2C Jan, and 0.7C Feb, making a mean of 1.9C for the winter.

The figures should be:

Dec 1.9C

Jan 1.6C

Feb 0.9C

Winter 1.47C

Mid-January to mid-February averaged about -1C. Also notable is how cold March (3.2C, second coldest of the century) and April (5.4C, coldest of the century) were.

[SNOW GO]

Keeping with the cold theme I have just come across this forecast(Sorry if it has been posted already on here) that goes for a cold-very cold Winter overall for the UK and Europe. Not sure how accurate this forecast is but would provide some very chilly conditions by the looks of things. With a repeat of last Winter or worse maybe?? :drinks: All exciting looking stuff if you like the cold and snow! Blocking looks like it may appear again as well if you go by this forecast.

http://icecap.us/ima...NTER_201011.pdf

Quote from the forecast:

The winter should start out cold in central and eastern United States, Western Europe and China. A cool summer start seems in the cards for South America. The late winter looks very cold in Europe and western Asia, while ti retreats west in the United States. Blocking in the Arctic/North Atlantic, last year at a 60 year record level, appears to be again a major factor.

Edited September 11, 2010 by SNOW GO

[Gavin P]

Thats already been posted by Beng on page three.

[Guest]

The figures should be:

Dec 1.9C

Jan 1.6C

Feb 0.9C

Winter 1.47C

Mid-January to mid-February averaged about -1C. Also notable is how cold March (3.2C, second coldest of the century) and April (5.4C, coldest of the century) were.

Made a mistake on winter av, which should have been 1.28C but we seem to have two sets of figures, I've got 2.8C for March 1917 and 4.9C for April.

Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/ewtemp.txt

Edited September 11, 2010 by mike Meehan

[Cymro]

Met Monkey are going to the cold side now, they really think this gulf stream thing means much colder winters, some saying we'll get the winters of places like Central Sweden and Western Russia, also, it seems they're going for the first blast to occur in mid November, like weatheronline!

Now I doubt very much that the gulf stream will drastically affect this winter in the short term, maybe in 5 years or a decade but its far to soon to be talking of immediate effects as we still don't have solid evidence of the 'disappearing gulf stream'. We could very well have a winter akin to those that you stated we had periods of last winter that we're very notable. We did have a very cold spell in January where temperatures fell to -19 Here in Wales and in many places across the Uk however we never taped into that sustained cold from the east, had we have done so our winter could have been much much colder. There's nothing to say it couldn't happen but its unlikely and the way our weather balances out here in the Uk as we all know, you need to have things just perfect for things to work out.

[SNOW GO]

Now I doubt very much that the gulf stream will drastically affect this winter in the short term, maybe in 5 years or a decade but its far to soon to be talking of immediate effects as we still don't have solid evidence of the 'disappearing gulf stream'. We could very well have a winter akin to those that you stated we had periods of last winter that we're very notable. We did have a very cold spell in January where temperatures fell to -19 Here in Wales and in many places across the Uk however we never taped into that sustained cold from the east, had we have done so our winter could have been much much colder. There's nothing to say it couldn't happen but its unlikely and the way our weather balances out here in the Uk as we all know, you need to have things just perfect for things to work out.

I agree with what your saying and normally your comment that it is unlikely we in the UK would tap into the cold out East unless in a near perfect set up would be more than correct but in my humble opinion we are not in normal circumstances now because of several important factors the sun although now not as quiet as it has been is not acting normally, the gulf stream is not acting normally, the freak weather around the world this Summer eg: Pakistan floods, China floods and landslides,Very cold Winter conditions in some parts of the Southern Hemisphere and the Russian Heatwave are not normal.Surely these are not all by accident or the usual claim of Global Warming??

I dont agree with the Ice Age Now extreme cold theory but I believe we may be entering a cooler phase of weather that may bring us increasingly colder Winters that countries who do not benifit from our milder air flow see on a more regular basis. In terms of this Winter though despite the increasing number of people now including myself going for a colder than average Winter overall, it still is a bit of a wait and see scenario that may throw up some nice surprises. :drinks:

Edited September 11, 2010 by SNOW GO

[AderynCoch]

Made a mistake on winter av, which should have been 1.28C but we seem to have two sets of figures, I've got 2.8C for March 1917 and 4.9C for April.

Source: http://www.metoffice...tics/ewtemp.txt

Ah righty, you're using the England & Wales averages whereas I'm looking specifically at the CET. Both sets of values have their merits - E&W represents a much larger area but the CET data goes right back to 1659, allowing for greater historical comparison.

Either way, I think it's fair to say that 1916/17 was a long, cold winter but I'm not getting my hopes up!

[Cymro]

I agree with what your saying and normally your comment that it is unlikely we in the UK would tap into the cold out East unless in a near perfect set up would be more than correct but in my humble opinion we are not in normal circumstances now because of several important factors the sun although now not as quiet as it has been is not acting normally, the gulf stream is not acting normally, the freak weather around the world this Summer eg: Pakistan floods, China floods and landslides,Very cold Winter conditions in some parts of the Southern Hemisphere and the Russian Heatwave are not normal.Surely these are not all by accident or the usual claim of Global Warming??

I dont agree with the Ice Age Now extreme cold theory but I believe we may be entering a cooler phase of weather that may bring us increasingly colder Winters that countries who do not benifit from our milder air flow see on a more regular basis. In terms of this Winter though despite the increasing number of people now including myself going for a colder than average Winter overall, it still is a bit of a wait and see scenario that may throw up some nice surprises.

Haha, I've got to also agree with you now on the extreme weather that has been happening, and that synoptics are not the same this year as they have been for a long time if ever. It does open the debate for exciting times ahead and as nobody is none the wiser on the implications of these events we can only sit patiently and wait to see what happens I suppose. But i have a poor feeling especially with expectation already being so high that we will receive a cold winter, that we will be bitterly disappointed kind o jinxing it ? But that's just me I'm a superstitious sod . Hehe.

[summer blizzard]

Made a mistake on winter av, which should have been 1.28C but we seem to have two sets of figures, I've got 2.8C for March 1917 and 4.9C for April.

Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/ewtemp.txt

Winter 1917 also contained the biggest snowfall on record, 200cm at Dartmoor.

[beng]

La Nina is not normally associated with a positive AO and strong zonal flow, quite the opposite in fact during winter, at least over the UK.

My analysis on the previous page shows that La Nina statistically correlates to cool, dry winters.

The reason for the misconception is because many of the La Nina events over the last ten years have been either dual peak events of peaking in winter. Winter 2009 was a classic example of a weakening La Nina in combination with a mature +QBO and led to a cold winter.

Hi SB,

Yes I'd agree that it may be a misconception that La Nina means zonal - however strong La Nina events like we're predicted to see this winter typically have been zonal with a couple of exceptions (1916/17 and the mid 50s winters had cold months too).

In terms of your analysis, I think you need to take into account the overall strength of the Enso event. For example Winter 2008/2009 - only contained la nina conditions and these were not strong enough to produce an official event.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

So the question I have is what happens in you drop the la nina events from your data set that did not have a peak 3 month la nina reading of <=-1.6 in the 3.4 region (what I'd consider a strong event - as this current one is predicted to be)? Ideally we'd only include events where the previous year contained a moderate/strong El Nino, but there really will be a lack of data then.

I think it's all down to how the various signals interact - strong La Nina, low solar, negative PDO phase, warm AMO (decreasing through winter) - so if we want to try and predict the pattern this winter we'd need to take all of these into account and we can't just assume that la nina will mean zonal or blocked weather for Europe.

Ben

[MR EXTREMES]

08 09 in my opion were pretty chilly im going for winter like 2005 then there was active hurricaine season plus la nina it was cold but nowhere near as cold as met office predicted that year.west country have some good snow events though,as for 08 april snowfall that settled for awhile on the southcoast,then 09 well feb see snowfall here in the south once again but last year was brillant.

i dont think this winter will be as snowy but certainly cold with events more likely to the north and west rest of the country dry cold and colder than 05,as long as its cold i dont care winter should be winter like i remember.

and the most amazing thing was last winter was el nino dominated which in my opion apart from net weather and mr accurweather along with weather online and two outllook got spot on,

i think last winter really put the cat amongst the pigeons with some of the bigger forecaster and i expect scientists aswell,but then look at nasa solar predictions lmao there you go just goes how unpredictable climate is.

Edited September 11, 2010 by badboy657

[Ladyofthestorm]

Met Monkey are going to the cold side now, they really think this gulf stream thing means much colder winters, some saying we'll get the winters of places like Central Sweden and Western Russia, also, it seems they're going for the first blast to occur in mid November, like weatheronline!

It was me that said that the first blast would be mid november, I live right in the far North of scotland, in amongst 100's of 3000ft mountains. I also said that the weather would be more contental that included drier and colder. With 30 years experience of living in the Highlands, I know when to read the signs. I was right last year when I predicted a very cold winter starting mid december on met monkey, so it doesnt surprise me that they have taken heed this winter. I am aka Snowwhite on met monkey.BTW

[summer blizzard]

Hi SB,

Yes I'd agree that it may be a misconception that La Nina means zonal - however strong La Nina events like we're predicted to see this winter typically have been zonal with a couple of exceptions (1916/17 and the mid 50s winters had cold months too).

In terms of your analysis, I think you need to take into account the overall strength of the Enso event. For example Winter 2008/2009 - only contained la nina conditions and these were not strong enough to produce an official event.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

So the question I have is what happens in you drop the la nina events from your data set that did not have a peak 3 month la nina reading of <=-1.6 in the 3.4 region (what I'd consider a strong event - as this current one is predicted to be)? Ideally we'd only include events where the previous year contained a moderate/strong El Nino, but there really will be a lack of data then.

I think it's all down to how the various signals interact - strong La Nina, low solar, negative PDO phase, warm AMO (decreasing through winter) - so if we want to try and predict the pattern this winter we'd need to take all of these into account and we can't just assume that la nina will mean zonal or blocked weather for Europe.

Ben

Fair enougth though the ONI is flawed in that id does not take into account temperatures in region 1.2 and thus the atmosphere may think that it is in a weak La Nina even if it is not a declared event.

If we look at the MEI serious (takes into account many more factors and is a much truer representation, years which saw strong La Nina values during winter were..

1976

1974

1971

1956

Those winters saw the following median values..

Dec - 4.9C, 0.2C below average

Jan - 4.7C, 0.5C above average

Feb - 2.6C, 1.6C below average

December and February tend to follow the usual La Nina pattern of a cool December and cold Febuary, though January is milder than average.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd//people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

Edited September 11, 2010 by summer blizzard

[WOODYS_WINTER]

Hi guys,

I've been reading, with great interest and excitement, a discussion on The Daily Mail website. A guy who goes by the name of weathergeek, is predicting a severe winter, worse than the last! Comparisons have been made to the famous winter of 1947, and 1963.

This guys credentials are pretty impressive! He has out-predicted the MET and NASA over recent times, and he's fiecely defensive over his predictions for this coming winter.

Here is the discussion on the Daily Mail website..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/newsdebate/f/t-10137958/p-1/index.html

Here is weathergeek's blog..

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/

Time to stock up on grit!

[Mark Bayley]

I would advise anyone hoping for a cold winter not to look at the long range CFS maps on NW

Heres January's..

Rest can be viewed here. Not sure whether its net-weather lite or full you need :lol:

Link

Obviously the above is going to change however it will be interesting to see over the coming months how accurate the long range CFS is. Most early forecasts seem to indicate a cold start to winter with a -NAO. The CFS shows this for December with a high pressure anomaly centred nearer to iceland and below average tempertures across the UK.

[Marcus_surfer]

Time to stock up on grit!

Run out already...This country needs to learn from last years winter. If this winter is going to be the same or worse, then we are in trouble.

Edited September 12, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[WOODYS_WINTER]

West Berkshire Council have stockpiled 5,000 tonnes of grit. To put that into perspective, they only had 1,200 tonnes of grit for the 2009/10 winter! Maybe this early warning is starting to creep through?

http://www.newburytoday.co.uk/news/Article.aspx?articleID=14199

[richardc1983]

Anyone come across this yet:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

& http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/14%20day%20UK%20weather%20forecast.aspx

"Cold on track

The chart shows the latest min temperatures forecast for Sunday 19th September by the GFS medium range forecasting model. That's showing VERY cold weather for the time of year with a ground frost across much of the country, and an airfrost (when the air temp falls below 0C) as far south as South Wales. A lot will depend on things such as cloud cover and wind speed which hold the temp up, as well as local factors, but next weekend may bring the coldest September night we've seen for some time. Before then we'll see a keen north westerly flow developing over Britain during the second half of the coming week, and the level to which snow falls could be as low 2500 feet in England with the higher parts of the Pennines seeing a few flakes. In Scotland it may fall lower, and remember to keep an eye on those Cairngorm web cams. On TheWeatherOutlook we'll be issuing our updated 14 day forecast in the next few hours. "

Edited September 12, 2010 by richardc1983