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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Hermine

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The disturbance in the Bay Of Campeche became a tropical depression overnight, and winds have risen to 35kts, meaning Hermine is born. The storm does not have long over water (around 36hrs) so unless rapid intensification occurs (not likely as Hermine is a large storm) then a moderate to strong tropical storm is the best we can expect from Hermine. As I mentioned, the storm is pretty large with thick rainbands flanking the LLC. Mexico could have some flooding to contend with as Hermine seems to have quite a lot of rain attached to it.

Hermine seems to be moving in a north-northwesterly direction at present. If the northwestwards turn doesn't materialise as soon as expected, then Hermine may have a little longer over water, and this should be watched.

post-1820-054179100 1283759506_thumb.jpg

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Classic example of a tropical wave going from 10% to Tropical Storm in under 48 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

Certainly it is stronger than the 40mph the NHC have it at, i would say 50mph-55mph, though unlikely to become a Hurricane before it makes landfall, i would not rule it out completely though, say a 15% chance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg

Current movement is directly north, there was even a north east wobble noted by the NHC however it should vear more north west, so a Texas/Mexico landfall highly likely.

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If it heads a bit further north it can find its way to some 30+ waters. A hurricane would be more likely if it gets over those waters but the current path has it making landfall just before reaching them.

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Intensity has increased to 40kts according to the NHC. Hermine is strengthening fast it seems, as the banding has wrapped nicely towards the LLC, and it appears a central dense overcast feature is forming, indicative of a very healthy system. As Hermine seems to be intensifying quicker than expected, I think the chances, though less than 50% IMO, are increasing for the storm to become a hurricane prior to landfall. Track forecast has shifted further to the north since the first advisory so a landfall near the Mexico/Texas border is favoured at present. As Paranoid says, the further Hermine tracks north, the greater chance it has of becoming a hurricane.

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Latest from Reuters

Tropical Storm Hermine, churning off Mexico's eastern coast, could reach hurricane strength winds before making landfall, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Monday.

The center issued a hurricane watch for the southern coast of Texas, from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Baffin Bay. Tropical storm warnings were in effect from La Cruz, Mexico north to Port O'Connor, Texas.

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Hermine is now forecast to reach 60kts before landfall and a hurricane watch has been produced for Texas.

This could be a sneaky little hurricane....

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Apparently, an eye is forming and can be clearly seen on radar. Do we have a hurricane already?

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Yep definately an eye like feature on brownsville radar, too soon though to say it's a hurricane, it's certainly on the verge of one maybe 60 kts I'd guess.

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NHC says 60mph, so it's unlikely to make it to hurricane status before landfall.

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Did you know that no storm named Hermine has ever made it to hurricane status?

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Quite a lot damage occurred from this system in Brownsville and a 5 year old was injured by a trampoline flying into her bedroom window.

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It made it to 60mph, so a fair distance short of hurricane strength. If it had had about 12 more hours over the water it probably would have made it.

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It made it to 60mph, so a fair distance short of hurricane strength. If it had had about 12 more hours over the water it probably would have made it.

I thought a Cat 1 is 64-83mph, I'm not sure but I wouldnt have thought 4 mph was that much to gain but yes, another 12 hours and it would have definately been there.

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Cat 1 is 64 knots (74 mph) so Hermine was about 14mph off. Personally, it looked like it was a Hurricane judging from the satellite pictures just before landfall, although tbf it's been odd to see a TS that actually has some convection compared to the ones we've had this season (Fiona had barely any).

Edit: I think Hermine made landfall with 65mph winds actually, although i haven't been able to find the advisory just before she made landfall. I was in bed when she did so i missed it.

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NHC use 1 min averages. Everywhere else seems to use 10 min i think apart from the Indian version of the Met Office who use 3 min.

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Still looking very impressive inland!

338yz4h79gql5aewni4.jpeg

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Is that an eye again? Will Hermine do an Erin (2007)?

Erin??

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