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Somerset Squall

Tropical Depression Eleven-E

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Another tropical depression has formed, this time in the east of the basin, just off the coast of Mexico, from a rapidly developing invest 95E. Intensity is 30kts currently. The depression is near to the coast and appears to be drifting north. This may mean that the system doesn't have long to strengthen before landfall. Shear is low and waters are toasty, so the system might just become a tropical storm, as indicated by NHC. 11E is likely to one hell of a rain maker, it's a very large system which is likely to bring very high rainfall totals.

post-1820-033416800 1283555078_thumb.jpg

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gone :lol:

Last Advisory

KNHC 041441

TCPEP1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010

800 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...DEPRESSION WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.0N 95.8W

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL

DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...

LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8

MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN MEXICO DURING

THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF

OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN

HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS

AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010

800 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH MEXICAN RADAR AND SURFACE DATA...

INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE

AREA OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO

MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY

RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND

EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL

CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW

DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 17.0N 95.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.8N 96.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

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