Tropical Storm Gaston

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

Development is likely to be slow over the next 48 hours because dry air is being dragged in by him, however once he nears Haiti, i would expect some fairly rapid development provided he does not turn north before then.

[The PIT]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

Development is likely to be slow over the next 48 hours because dry air is being dragged in by him, however once he nears Haiti, i would expect some fairly rapid development provided he does not turn north before then.

I hope he doesn't as people are still out in tents in Haiti. Anything major could cause a huge death toll.

[Iceberg]

The models are uniform in not developing the feature of ex Gaston....

However I am unsure whether this is simply to do with the current lack of convection which is kind of making it invisible, or some other reason.

Gaston has fired off some convection near it's LLCC this evening and the dry air is being pushed away by an expanding moisture field. Gaston is still away off TD let alone TS status but is improving, due to it's approach to a more favourable environment the convection does stand a chance of staying 24 hrs this time round and an update to a TD tomorrow might happen.(with caveats).

Beyond tomorrow, its hard to discount the models, IF it does form then the tracks are somewhere near haiti or Jamaica, possibly Cuba before entry into the GOM.

[AderynCoch]

Back down to 20%. It won't take much to finally destroy Gaston right now, though conditions are gradually becoming more favourable for redevelopment.

A weak and underdeveloped system like this shouldn't cause Haiti too many problems, unless it were to unexpectedly stall in the vicinity. Jeanne killed over 3000 people in Haiti whilst barely a tropical storm, altough she had already developed into a hurricane previously and thus had a relatively formidable structure.

[AderynCoch]

Down to 10%.

This thing is toast if it goes near the Greater Antilles.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/wv-l.jpg

Honestly, looking at that image i would see Hello again Tropical Depression Gaston!

[Jack Wales]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/wv-l.jpg

Honestly, looking at that image i would see Hello again Tropical Depression Gaston!

Yes, just when we thought all was lost covection literally takes off again as has been the case with this system for the last week or so. The only problem now is that Gaston (or should I say AL09) is experiencing moderate south-easterly shear and approaching pueto rico which will likely inhibit development of this system. You never know though he may surprise us again.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg

Could well be close to being a Tropical Depression again, though Peurta Rico should not really inhibit development as Gaston is moving west.

[Iceberg]

I do think NHC made a mistake taking the percentage so low, just when the LLCC was due to hit a more moist environment....Yet keeping it at 70-80% when he was surrounded by dry air. I think we need to see what he's like in the morning.

[summer blizzard]

I do think NHC made a mistake taking the percentage so low, just when the LLCC was due to hit a more moist environment....Yet keeping it at 70-80% when he was surrounded by dry air. I think we need to see what he's like in the morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/wv-l.jpg

Even better appearence now, if it carries on like this we may have a Tropical Storm by tommorow morning.

[Jack Wales]

Strong convection bursting now, the system appears to have made a turn to the west north west, probably being steered around the periphery of the sub tropical ridge to the north east. If it survives the high ground of puerto rico, it could follow a track over hispinola, bahamas and then north towards florida before looping back into the atlantic.

Edited September 7, 2010 by Jack Wales

[summer blizzard]

Strong convection bursting now, the system appears to have made a turn to the west north west, probably being steered around the periphery of the sub tropical ridge to the north east. If it survives the high ground of puerto rico, it could follow a track over hispinola, bahamas and then north towards florida before looping back into the atlantic.

Convection now over the centre, circulation present, this should now be a Tropical Depression!

[Paranoid]

Certainly come back from the dead as it were, or at very least a bit of a fidget in it's grave. Can't see much of a circulation but that's normal in weaker storms undergoing a convection burst.

Edited September 7, 2010 by Paranoid

[The PIT]

Certainly come back from the dead as it were, or at very least a bit of a fidget in it's grave. Can't see much of a circulation but that's normal in weaker storms undergoing a convection burst.

I guess lack of news means it's dead an ex system.

[summer blizzard]

Yes, Gaston is no longer an invest, Haiti killed him, literally split him in two.

[Cookie]

gone

NHC_ATCF

invest_DEACTIVATE_al092010.ren

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201009091515

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END