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A few days ago, the eigth tropical cyclone of the West Pacific season formed northeast of the Philippines. Since then, the storm has become a 75kt typhoon whilst moving northwestwards east of Taiwan. Kompasu is very small, but is already developing a well defined eye. Kompasu has another 36hrs to strengthen before it recurves northeastwards into higher shear. Due to the small size of the typhoon, there is the possibility of rapid intensification. Of note also is TS Namtheun to the west- whilst the storms will get pretty close, Nemtheun is moving away so significant Fujiwhara Interaction is unlikely. The recurve to the northeast is expected due to a trough breaking down the ridge steering Kompasu. This same trough is responible for the progged increase in shear which should weaken Kompasu to a tropical storm prior to landfall in South Korea. Extratropical transition will then occur north of Japan.

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Kompasu's small size has allowed it to rapidly strengthen, aand intensity has risen to 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. Further strengthening appears likely as outflow is very good (bar towards the west), shear is low and waters are very warm. Kompasu certainly has a well defined eye which obviously a good base for further development.

Just to correct my earlier post, landfall is expected in North Korea, not South Korea.

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Looks like this could be a strong one this one

wp201008.gif

the 3 storms in the West Pacific

avng.jpg

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Kompasu has become the season's first cat 3 with intensity now at 100kts. The typhoon is still on track moving north-northwestwards and is still expected to recurve northeastwards and make landfall in North Korea as a weakened storm (due to impending high shear and cooler waters).

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Kompasu has weakened to 80kts. 30-40kts of shear is attacking the typhoon, and an eye is no longer visable. With no let up in the shear forecast, further weakening should occur, perhaps fast weakening as Kompasu is small. As forecast, Kompasu has shifted to a more northerly heading and should turn to the northeast in the next 12hrs, with a landfall in North Korea still likely. Kompasu will emerge to the north of Japan and become extratropical.

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Kompasu has crossed North Korea into the Sea Of Japan. Kompasu has weakened to 50kts and is well on it's way to becoming extratropical. High wind shear and cold waters will ensure extratropical transition completition in the next 12hrs. Currently, all that's left is a little shallow convection which has been removed far to the northeast of the flagging LLC which is still near the east coast of North Korea.

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