Major Hurricane Earl

[AderynCoch]

Advisory 25A...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.5N 68.5W

ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

NHC have gone against the NRL and upped the pressure slightly. What confuses me right now is that the pressure seems to be rising but neither the wind speed nor the wind field are decreasing. Where's the weakness manifesting itself?

[The PIT]

I'd wait for the eye wall to be fully replaced then it should start building again.

[Mondy]

Fiona bringing up the rear. Earl looking not so hot at the moment. There is tons of dry air about to (or is) affect(ing)Earl. A huge swathe off north of him.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

[Jason T]

awesome pic.

[Mondy]

About to hit dry air - let's see how Earl likes it.

Edited August 31, 2010 by Mondy

[Cookie]

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITEDSTATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDINGTHE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINANORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

[Mondy]

It's about to go poooooof soon. Interaction with dry air and the coastline is gonna slow this buggah down.

West and south-west flank already seemingly having probs with the dry air intrusion. If this is the actual case, then he'll wobble northwards, not west.

[summer blizzard]

Must say, Hurricane Earl is massive, he streches pretty much all the way to South America.

[tripleseis]

I'm currently on holiday in NYC staying with family who live near the coast of Long Island Sound - very prone to storm surges. The development of Earl is certainly a cause for concern as we've already two days of sickness and I hope we don't have the holiday ruined by having to be evacuated. We were in North Carolina when Danielle brushed passed. I'm hoping this bugger dies or misses us completely.

[pottyprof]

Hi Peeps..

Just to let you know that I've removed a few posts as they are off topic. If anyone wishes to continue with their off topic posts, can they kindly take them to PM please?

Thanks

[Iceberg]

Wow OT posts in here. !

Anyway my take on the last 24 hrs is..

Earl needed and attempted an ERC yesterday, these are difficult at the best of times, some hurricanes can do it, some can't, some can do it sometimes. Earl suffered from the inner eye not decaying enough and the outer eye as being too large.(A little similar to Danielle).

Coupled with this was a bit of starvation as the inflow was cut off, thanks to the mountains of DR and Haiti, with restricted Inflow Earl could not maintain it's monsterous CDO.

These things together have put a very large halt on further intensification.

However even saying all this Earl is CAT a very strong CAT 4 hurricane, with a hurricane field that expand 150 miles east to west. (90 miles at it's most in the NE Quad away from the centre).

Pressure has risen a bit over the last 24 hrs but only to 940mb which considering the state of his eye yesterday is quite remarkable.

Going forward the eye from the latest recon Vortex was Circular at 30nm, but ragged. If this eye can reinforce it's walls then it could still strenghten a bit although a CAT 5 is probably beyond it's reach.

Dry air shouldn't be a problem as it's assocaited with the ridge which should be pushed aside and assuming the inflow and outflow are still working for Earl. Shear is due to decrease over the nect 48 hrs, so I think this will be the case.

Latest Sat pics show that Earl is looking better this morning.

WRT path due to the latest NHC Earl is set for a sharp turn in 48 hrs northwards, currently the NHC path put Earl 90 miles from the N.Caroline coastline then 150 miles from long Island and 50 miles from Rhode Island.

Considering the size of the Hurricane wind field, all will depend on when the sharp turn happens, even a few hrs difference will be critical as to where gets the storm surge and the hurricane winds.

There is still model uncertainty with ECM and HWRF keeping the track further to the west of the NHC and closer to the east coast. GFS and GFDL are to the east of the NHC.

[Iceberg]

Just to add to that that Recon found 940mb pressure on it's first pass and 938mb on that pass so Earl could be doing a bit of re-intensification. 938mb is only 10mb off it's lowest pressure at it's height.

072230 2344N 07047W 6970 02623 9388 +172 +125 161016 020 033 000 03

072300 2343N 07049W 6966 02626 9383 +175 +127 167002 007 022 001 03

072330 2343N 07051W 6970 02627 9385 +176 +131 345014 017 021 000 03

[Iceberg]

His eye looks a bit better to be, but he's struggling slightly with convection.

Recon are in anyway which will be interesting.

06Z model runs are really cat and pigeon status with 3 model runs taking Earl either directly over Rhode Island or westwards......

A hurricane warning has been extended from N.Carolina northwards, but not yet to NYC.

(One model run takes a direct CAT 3 NYC hit)

[Jack Wales]

The EWRC process appears to have been completed which IMO would normally allow scope for some intensification, especially considering the sst's in that region. There are a couple of stumbling blocks in that Earl has entrained quite a bit of dry air in the last 12 hours, although this has not affected the core of the hurricane, intensification will likely be restricted until this can be mixed out. Secondly the outflow to the south appears to be somewhat inhibited which indicates southerly shear. Although these factors will restrict strengthening, Earl is now a large and vigorous hurricane so any weakening will also be slow to occur. I would not be at all surprised if Earl is still a Major Cat 3 hurricane as it approaches the eastern seaboard of the US.

Edited September 1, 2010 by Jack Wales

[Gray-Wolf]

I take it the U.S. open will be interupted on thurs/fri/sat with rain and high winds then?

[Jack Wales]

At the moment a direct hit on NYC looks unlikely so as you say it will just be gusty and showery…However the track guidance envelope stretches as far west as the eastern half of long island and if Earl does follow this path, I think it will make Wimbledon’s weather look positively benign!

Realistically I would be very concerned if I was a resident on the North Carolina coast, especially as Earl could still be at Cat 3. Also the north east coastline, north of cape cod are potential landfall areas although Earl should have weakened somewhat by then.

Edited September 1, 2010 by Jack Wales

[tripleseis]

They've ordered mandatory evacuations of the NC Outer Banks now for tourists. Timing! We were discussing during our stay last week, that if we left it until a week later we wouldn't have had all the rain we had during our stay (it wasn't that bad looking back). Happy now we chose the week we did.

http://www2.wnct.com/weather/2010/sep/01/67/hurricane-earl-move-gaining-strength-ar-354686/

[Paranoid]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg.

Eye looks like it's sorted now. Could be on the mend?

[ZONE 51]

looks like ts fiona is becoming a hurricane soon, seem to be developing more.Earl looks amazing!

Edited September 1, 2010 by nimbilus

[Paranoid]

Pressure has dropped slightly on the last advisory so Earl is strengthening again. Doubt there will be much opportunity for anything on a massive scale but could get back up to Cat 4, winds need to only increase by about 5mph.

[Iceberg]

A quick update from me, sorry another busy day as the kids are back at school. !

Earl is STRENGTHENING, and I will add the caveat that it could be quite rapidly.

The dry air has been pushed aside as the ridge as weaken, pretty much as expected, and moisture is nolonger a problem for Earl, coupled with this the eye has developed a good convective wall of -70C tops.

The below recon recently taken shows 6 flight winds at 125 or above and 2 of 138.

This would equate to a CAT 4 hurricane of 115 kts. The short advisory by NHC also confirm that Earl is strengtening and might reach CAT 4.

These are are highest winds found in EARL during is shrot life..

This was always a possibility once the SE outflow stopped being impeded by Cuba and the shear eased. Due to this there is every chance that EARL will reach the EAST COAST of the US as a strong CAT 4 Hurricane.

171200 2548N 07226W 6967 02697 9478 +151 //// 132093 096 096 003 01

171230 2549N 07224W 6967 02717 9498 +150 //// 135100 101 099 005 05

171300 2550N 07223W 6968 02735 9525 +146 //// 138105 108 101 012 01

171330 2551N 07222W 6961 02769 9546 +128 //// 142124 127 100 016 01

171400 2552N 07221W 6960 02784 //// +100 //// 143136 138 098 019 01

171430 2554N 07219W 6968 02793 //// +098 //// 145135 138 099 016 01

171500 2555N 07218W 6973 02812 9674 +098 //// 142127 129 096 018 01

171530 2556N 07217W 6963 02843 9675 +112 +103 141123 126 091 015 00

171600 2557N 07216W 6976 02842 9710 +099 +095 140122 123 088 013 00

171630 2558N 07214W 6956 02882 9744 +084 //// 140124 125 088 011 01

171700 2559N 07213W 6972 02879 9763 +083 +079 140122 123 086 006 00

171730 2600N 07212W 6966 02903 9762 +100 +072 139120 121 084 007 00

171800 2601N 07211W 6970 02910 9773 +104 +067 140117 117 081 006 00

171830 2602N 07209W 6966 02928 9783 +107 +064 142114 115 080 006 00

171900 2603N 07208W 6965 02941 9803 +102 +062 143110 112 078 006 00

171930 2604N 07207W 6967 02951 9808 +108 +062 141109 111 076 012 00

172000 2606N 07206W 6965 02960 9827 +098 +061 142107 109 075 010 00

172030 2607N 07204W 6964 02968 9843 +091 +061 145108 111 076 015 00

172100 2608N 07203W 6970 02969 9858 +084 +061 143109 110 074 013 00

$$

Now to have a quick look at the path.

Edited September 1, 2010 by Iceberg

[AderynCoch]

...so Earl forewent wind speed for an expansion of hurricane-force winds. Dry air shouldn't be causing too much of a problem, as Earl is already such a large and powerful system. The large size of the storm combined with sustained winds which should be at least Category 3 lead me to believe that the Outer Banks are set to receive an almighty storm surge (at least Category 4 standard), especially if Earl takes a left wobble upon approach. Thereafter, the increase in forward speed should enable Earl to race northeastwards so that he could retain his potency for some time before unfavourable conditions begin to take their toll.

Looking very rough all the way up the east coast.

[Iceberg]

...so Earl forewent wind speed for an expansion of hurricane-force winds.

I think Earl could be going for both expansion and wind speed !.

GFS, Canadian and Nogaps are ALL going for a direct hit on the eastcoast somewhere in the 12Z, ECM is now the furthest east global model, but not by much.....

I am still trying to get a bit more info on them.

[Iceberg]

Two pics from the GFS model, blown up and the latest from the NHC with the hurricane warnings from Jackonsville to Vaginia Beach. A hurricane watch is also for the Delaware coast (This is only because of the length of time).

[Cookie]

he looks amazing again