Major Hurricane Earl

[Paranoid]

Latest GFDL run brings Earl up to a Cat 5 with 140kt winds and a pressure of 936mb. The GFDL tends to overestimate winds and underestimate pressures so i would take this with a pinch of salt, although there is clear potential for Earl to become a very strong storm. Cat 4 is quite likely given the strength Danielle has achieved.

I cant work out how to post a picture of the model run so if anyone else knows how to, it would be appreciated.

Edited August 27, 2010 by Paranoid

[Cookie]

Latest GFDL run brings Earl up to a Cat 5 with 140kt winds and a pressure of 942mb. The GFDL tends to overestimate winds and underestimate pressures so i would take this with a pinch of salt, although there is clear potential for Earl to become a very strong storm. Cat 4 is quite likely given the strength Danielle has achieved.

I cant work out how to post a picture of the model run so if anyone else knows how to, it would be appreciated.

is this what you're after?

[Paranoid]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010082712-earl07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That's the one i was looking for, but i cant get it to go to the frame i want so posting a link is not quite as direct as it could be.

Edited August 27, 2010 by Paranoid

[Cookie]

[Iceberg]

Cant' go to bed without posting this from ECM tonight..

The first shows all three hurricanes, Danielle, Earl and Fiona.

The second shows Fiona with a strong ridge to her north and a certain landfall somewhere between N.Carolina and NYC as a CAT 4.

NYC might be spared Earl but will it escape Fiona ? , who looks like a right ogre of a storm !

[Iceberg]

Earl is doing quite well this morning upped to 45kts by NHC, he is certainly getting his centre sorted out with more persistant convection over it. Thenext task is to grow the CDO so that a strong TS can form.

In 3 or 4 days time Earl looks to have everything he could possibly wish for, lower shear, an Upper Anti-cyclone above him to aid in outflow and SST's approaching 30C, the only really limit will likely be the storm itself, so worth taking a bit of time getting the basics right for later.

[Iceberg]

The plan is to send Recon in as early as today to Earl, it probably means not much more recon on Danielle though.

1. TROPICAL STORM EARL

FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49

A. 29/0000Z

B. NOAA9 0107A EARL

C. 28/1730Z

D. NA

E. NA

F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70

A. 29/1200,1800Z

B. AFXXX 0207A EARL

C. 29/0945Z

D. 17.5N 56.0W

E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1800Z

F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[summer blizzard]

I would be very suprised if Earl does not become a major hurricane. In terms of track, definitely a fish, however it will hit the Windward Islands tommorow night.

[Iceberg]

Earl is really suffering from NW shear atm, the centre is on the NW of the recent convection and the LLCC is probably 60% or so exposed.

However it must get it's act together soon and when it does it should rapidly intensify (GFDL takes him to a CAT 5 )

As to track , yep a FISH seems to have been on the cards mostly for Earl with a breif hit on nova scotia.

[Cookie]

Latest

[Paranoid]

Ahh, Earl finally has taken on a shape that looks favourable for further stregthening. I think that Earl will be a hurricane in the next 12-24 hours.

Edit: Actually, looking at the satellite loops, Earl could already be a hurricane. Convection has flared up over the centre and the beginnings of an eyewall may be forming. Recon is due to investigate the system fairly soon i think so we'll see what they have to say on the matter.

Edited August 28, 2010 by Paranoid

[Paranoid]

Not quite there yet, but still strengthening.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 282349

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

800 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.5N 54.6W

ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR

SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS

* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* THE PUERTO RICO ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. EARL IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...34 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE

WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON

SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH

THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS

989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING

AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Katherine]

From the laminate flooring guy on Twitter:

8 pm citizens update: Earl a hurricane.. TPC should update shortly.

Update on topic title perhaps?

[Iceberg]

Earl isn't yet a Hurricane, but likely to be very soon, recon should be in around lunchtime to confirm, last recon was 71Kt flight winds, considering 75kt flt winds is hurricane strength it was just shy of it.

GFS still takes Earl very close to the east coast, but it does effect the islands before this.

Path is pretty secure so not much point talking about it too much.

As to how Earl is now, well to me, shear looks to be easying off gradually with the convection spreadying further NW from the centre, very cold cloud tops and heavy convection are around the centre and it has a good spin on it.

The problems come after Monday when conditions should be A+ perfect from some models.......GFDL continues to up the max stength for Earl and currently takes him to a strong CAT 5, making one of the strongest storms in recent history just behind Katrina.

This is not a forecast from me for Earl, but it does show that as it's down to Earl whether he wants to be monster or not.

The latst ECM is out and at 120 (which it hardly FI) does brush NYC coastline with a very strong Earl.

It still looks likes Tides and waves might be the biggest problem, but a very small shift east will start to get people seriously panicing.

[Iceberg]

Also quickly to add if the same movement occurs at 120 which occured between last night and this morning on the next run, Earl will Hit NYC directly, so heres hopeing that this is NOT a new Trend and is an outlier without much support.

[Iceberg]

Status Quo update from NHC on Earl, largely due I think to the fact that Recon is just entering the system (making use of a training flight rather than a scheduled flight! )

[Iceberg]

Recon from the experimental flight have found pressure of 983mb this is quite a bit below the NHC forecast 1 hr ago of 989mb.

Surface winds so far are around the 55-60 kt mark compared to the 55kt NHC forecast.

Their is little doubt that Earl is on the edge of Hurricane strength now, particularly once winds respond to the pressure...

[Cookie]

[Paranoid]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

An eye forming there?

[Paranoid]

Almost there, should be a hurricane by the 4pm advisory.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 291159

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

800 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD

ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.1N 57.6W

ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO

IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING

WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD

BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE

NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST. EARL IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT

AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE

LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA

LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY

MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN

ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS

POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE

NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE

PATH OF THE CENTER OF EARL. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE

AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH

POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Paranoid]

Triple post, i apologise.

Earl is now a Hurricane

000

WTNT62 KNHC 291232

TCUAT2

HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75

MPH...120 KM/HR.

SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W

ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Jason T]

Been following this through comments on here lately very interesting, the power of nature.

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic?desc=NHC&idx=2&trk=3&sid=201007&lat=17.9&lon=-61.401&z=2&rd=0&sr=0&cd=0&tk=1&os=0&mo=0&ht=0&mg=0&ob=0&wf=1&ml=1&ql=0&sl=0

[Cookie]

Good afternoon Hurricane Earl

[Paranoid]

Every 15 minutes or so Earl's appearence keeps improving. Possibility of RI underway?

In any case, i suspect Danielle moving away has helped things, Earl looked a bit squashed on the northern edge earlier today. Vortex message below says that Earl has formed an open eye ( i think, still can't remember for sure what all the individual bits mean)

000

URNT12 KNHC 291233

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010

A. 29/11:48:50Z

B. 17 deg 07 min N

057 deg 41 min W

C. 850 mb 1317 m

D. 45 kt

E. 218 deg 55 nm

F. 317 deg 44 kt

G. 220 deg 61 nm

H. 986 mb

I. 17 C / 1523 m

J. 21 C / 1527 m

K. 18 C / NA

L. OPEN SW-NE

M. C20

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 02

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 81 KT NE QUAD 12:07:30Z

MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 64 KT NE QUAD

Edited August 29, 2010 by Paranoid

[Katherine]

Change of thread title needed - Earl upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane!