Storm General Discussion Thread

[camiscool]

is kent going to get hit?

[Neilsouth]

is kent going to get hit?

Yes but how much i don't know

[Wilxy]

is kent going to get hit?

Not to sure but the wind looks to be the main event in kent.

[Evening thunder]

:help:Monsoon season has arrived and it's only just began

I see that heavy stuff over South Devon on the Netweather radar.

Looking at the radar there seems to be heavy/very heavy convective like areas embedded in the main rain, could be interesting.

Very light rain started here with some heavy stuff coming this way by the looks of it.

[camiscool]

Well neilsouth i am in west kent and you are in east so we could have different weather so who knows :s

[tornadomanuk]

Sefrics now showing up within the storm

[NorthantsSnow]

Eek. Could be a very wet night indeed in Northants. Netweather is suggesting torrential rainfall from 0000hrs through 0900hrs with totals exceeding 40mm.

[Evening thunder]

Can't really say whether the more heavier pulses on radar are due to convection. Given uplift of moist Tm air mass with high PWAT amounts, it should be expected that very heavy or torrential pulses of rain are going to occur. Saturated/moist upper profile will likely inhibit convection at this stage - would think past midnight chances for embedded convection increase slightly as low deepens.

Ah ok thanks, I was just thinking some of it looked slightly convective looking at the 'sharp' edges and how some of it forms around south Devon on the netweather radar. I've just thought before it kind of looks like 'convective' showers on showery days but surrounded by the other rain too. I agree they are not strong convection that forms thunderstorms If I'm making any sense:lol:

Rain gradually getting heavier here, now reaching the 'moderate' stage

[TheToastPeople]

Going over 32 in places

[dodge]

The BBC never show isobars on their charts anymore. I'm just wondering how deep this low is going to register and the strength of the winds. Not expecting much up here, but central & southern england could be in for a real soaking overnight.

Edited August 22, 2010 by dodgeredee

[Marcus_surfer]

Any lightning in this mass of rain yet? I can see some very torrential bursts heading towards SW England

[Greeny]

Just back from 5 days in Norfolk and had a great send off this morning. Moored the boat at Horning overnight and was awoken to very heavy rain at 515am and rolling thunder in the distance, fantastic Cg at 530am made all the house and car alarms go off, Storm finally cleared at 7am to leave great sunny skies.

Looks like I missed nothing in Stormless Essex.

Paul S

Yeah I knew that potential would still be around during the early hours but it had been like that all afternoon with nothing but low cloud hindering surface heating. I guess when the front finally came over it used what was left Was awaken at 5am and it died off for me around 6am.

Now it looks like some good convection over to my E/SE however not showing much CAPE on the SKEW T but atmosphere not what I call totally stable. Has been a nice day today so surface heating could have helped that convection however not an overall humid day I must say. I guess wait and see for the next few hours to see what it brings.

[Lewis]

could tonight/tomorrow be another mess from metoffice. sorry but am i the only one thinking that other than the track this has June 2007 written all over it me thinks, i also think metoffice have well under-done their values/returns on rainfall again.

I hope not!!

Edited August 22, 2010 by North Sea Breeze

[TonyH]

Although I am supposed to be very much on the fringe of things tonight, the sky does have that ominous, 'something special is on the way' look to it

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Going over 32 in places

Where is that?

[TheToastPeople]

like right in the center of the storm

[TonyH]

could tonight/tomorrow be another mess from metoffice. sorry but am i the only one thinking that other than the track this has June 2007 written all over it me thinks, i also think metoffice have well under-done their values/returns on rainfall again.

I hope not!!

No, the 2007 event was very static and torrential over the SW Midlands, whereas this system is moving on through with 'only 6-9 hours heavy/ torrential rain in any one region.

[Sunny Android]

The BBC never show isobars on their charts anymore. I'm just wondering how deep this low is going to register and the strength of the winds. Not expecting much up here, but central & southern england could be in for a real soaking overnight.

MetO only have this dropping to 995mB over the UK, dropping lower as in heads into the continent !

[TheToastPeople]

bbc has updated there weather model

http://news.bbc.co.u.../forecast/10209

[Lewis]

No, the 2007 event was very static and torrential over the SW Midlands, whereas this system is moving on through with 'only 6-9 hours heavy/ torrential rain in any one region.

True.

But some of the returns from the radar shows some pretty hefty totals.

Over a sustained period of 6-9 hours locally, or in some cases regionally it could cause some very large totals. Possibly exceeding 90mm. As always it depends what happens once it starts to head inland.

It may not be much of a widespread event in terms of disruption and flooding, but it could be pretty bad for the areas that do get the rain.

Judging by the current dewpoints, they seem quite high where the system is pushing in, the SW and parts of the South are showing dew points generally 15-17c, saturation is going to be pretty high, which won't help matters.

regards

lewis

[SteveElbows]

Met office have done flash warnings for Herefordshire,Worcestershire and Warwickshire within the last hour (previously just advisories for these areas).

[cyclonic happiness]

I see it's now gonna hit my end of the region.

To my eyes, as there is gonna be no huge southwards push by a cold front or northern airmass, the northmost extent of the rain will be just south of Manchester.

there is also not a wisp of wind to be seen atm, which is usually and indicator of change.

Edited August 22, 2010 by cyclonic happiness

[Optimus Prime]

Met office have done flash warnings for Herefordshire,Worcestershire and Warwickshire within the last hour (previously just advisories for these areas).

Yeah because the warning ALWAYS starts off from an advisory. Normal stuff really.

[Ian Fergusson]

True.

But some of the returns from the radar shows some pretty hefty totals.

Over a sustained period of 6-9 hours locally, or in some cases regionally it could cause some very large totals. Possibly exceeding 90mm. As always it depends what happens once it starts to head inland.

It may not be much of a widespread event in terms of disruption and flooding, but it could be pretty bad for the areas that do get the rain.

Judging by the current dewpoints, they seem quite high where the system is pushing in, the SW and parts of the South are showing dew points generally 15-17c, saturation is going to be pretty high, which won't help matters.

regards

lewis

Ageed re potential seriousness for many districts and we have been at pains to stress this.

Latest UKMO Chief Forecaster guidance not a pretty picture. Rainfall as previously advised in my posts; slightly diminished (70 v 80mm) story for spot values but only key change is the sting jet potential transferring now to just offshore Netherlands tomorrow AM and also off southerly parts of Norfolk as opposed to Wash.

Trouble expected from this one, for sure. Thankfully - somewhat - it's a nocturnal feature, as will be the Wed night and Fri night depressions, we reckon.

Ian

Edited August 22, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[SteveElbows]

Yeah because the warning ALWAYS starts off from an advisory. Normal stuff really.

Yes but most regions went orange long before us, we stayed yellow till pretty recently.