Tropical Storm Mindulle

[Somerset Squall]

94W has organised into a tropical depression in the South China Sea. Intensity is at 30kts and there is some deep convection over the LLC and some formative banding features, which means the depresison is close to storm strength. 06W will travel generally westwards towards the coast of Vietnam. Low shear and warm sea temps should promote strengthening, but 06W is unlikely to become a typhoon as it doesn't have all that long over water.

[Somerset Squall]

TD 06W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Mindulle, with intensity rising to 50kts. Mindulle is a small storm which has responded well to the favourable environment. Mindulle has travelled generally westwards over the last 24hrs and is nearing the coast of Vietnam. However, a turn towards the northwest due to some weakening of the steering ridge to the north may delay landfall until the 24-36hr time period. If the ridge weakens further then a northward turn may materialise but this is considered unlikely by JTWC. Bottom line, some flooding and fairly damaging winds look poised to pound Vietnam.

[Cookie]

Nice system

Edited August 23, 2010 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like there could be an eyewall forming there- perhaps, just perhaps, Mindulle might become a typhoon prior or at landfall after all. The upper level environment is certainly supportive.

[Somerset Squall]

This is not good at all, I would love this if the storm wasn't so close to land- Mindulle has an eye, and if it isn't a typhoon my next advisory (issued within the next hour) then it could well be after. Mindulle's small size means it is ramping up much quicker than expected.

[Cookie]

never was classed as a typhoon.

seems like their was some underestimation with regards to wind speeds

made landfall this afternoon

Edited August 24, 2010 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, peaked at 60kts, just shy of typhoon strength. I too think it may have been a touch stronger than this- I guess we will have to wait until post season analysis next year to find out for certain.

Mindulle is indeed moving inland and should dissipate soon. 137 fishermen are reported missing by Vietnam:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-24/vietnam-says-137-fishermen-missing-as-tropical-storm-mindulle-approaches.html

[Cookie]

very sad news re fisherman