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Paranoid

Major Hurricane Danielle

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Will this one last longer than the others did? Could have the potential to become something quite significant.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 212030

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010

500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL

ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W

ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15

KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND

THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR

TOMORROW...AND A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

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looks very interesting this one

at201006.gif

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If this one continues as predicted it will probably provide a signifcant boost to the season's ACE value. If it's a fairly strong Cape Verde Hurricane then it could easily double what it is currently.

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Looking great already

this has potential

rb-l.jpg

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What's happening Cookie??? Shear???

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Yep under moderate NW Shear, however this should ease off tomorrow.

ATM the Shear has totally exposed what looks like a very nice centre, at this stage of it's developement its not really a problem although it will halt any development to a TS.

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Despite the shear we have TS Danielle

000

WTNT31 KNHC 222043

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010

500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.4N 35.1W

ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER THE

EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED

LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE

INTENSITY BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

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She isn't a small beastie either.

The top bit of the latest NHC discussion below the shear is still easing but is still their so the CDO isn't quite central, however even if it just eases off a bit this will make hurricane status.

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE...WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND

1900 UTC...HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS

AS COLD AS -90 C. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS AT 2151 UTC SUGGESTS

THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE

OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY

SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE

3.0...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. A

RECENTLY ARRIVING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 35 TO 40 KT WINDS OVER THE

WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS RAISING

THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

Very good track agreement all the way out to Day 10 really now.

Westwards, then a turn Northwards as we hit the ridge weakness, then beyond that she's too big and strong to get steered by very much, so we get a slow down then an engagement in the westerlies, GFS is slightly more progressive than ECM at day 10, but both have dartboard UK on it somewhere IMO.

Anyway, she's looking very good now with moderate strengthening taking place. Latest AMSR winds are indicative of a 50Kt storm with the possible formation of an eye/centre on the eastern side which to be would be where the centre is with the shear, however this could be just a random pattern, if it's not then a hurricane in the next 24 hrs is very likely IMO.

post-6326-076910200 1282544996_thumb.jpg

post-6326-092664900 1282545013_thumb.png

post-6326-071676600 1282545024_thumb.png

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Taken from the new latest NHC below.

Dvorak estiamtes are now between 3.5 and 4, which gives an estimate of between 55kts and 65kts.

On this basis Danielle looks to be a very strong TS, upto boarderline CAT 1 Hurricane.

Going from the outflow and banding I would suggest maybe aroudn 60Kts now.

NHC updated to a conservative 50kts in the last advisory and will certainly raise again in the next. Give this Danielle is intensifying quite a bit more than forecast and should make a hurricane later today.

Maybe tomorrow we can play eye chasing and start to get some good pictures.

Danielle is the biggest storm in size yet this season and really has a large CDO which IMO is the reason why it's coping well with the moderate shear atm.

Also worth saying that Danielle is bigger and stronger than the GM's currently have her.

DANIELLE HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A CLASSIC BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD

TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -85C DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 0351 AND 0541 UTC...

RESPECTIVELY...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION

CENTER LIES ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.

PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAN

PREVIOUSLY NOTED. THE BURSTING PATTERN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE

SURFACE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT DANIELLE CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EASTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH BEFORE. DVORAK

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...

RESPECTIVELY...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE 3.4. USING A BLEND

OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED

CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.

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Looking at the daylight visuals this is now a hurricane IMO. the classic SW inflow and strong outflow along with the tightening gives a classic 65Kt Dvorak T4.0.

The shear is continuing to ease and the LLCC moving further into the CDO.

I think we will have to wait until th 4.00pm advisory though for the official NHC upgrade.

An eye like feature might still develop later today, if this happens then I would put the estimate at 70-75Kts.

For Info There is NO flight recon planned for Danielle, this is norm for a system that is expected to FISH and is still quite a way east, it probably won't be for 2 or 3 days before flights are comissioned so intensity will mostly be guided by Dvorak estimates, which are determined from the visual look of the system, eye health etc, this is the norm for pacific systems but is still anoying !.

BTW any chance of a mod updating the title of the thread to indicate that this is a strong tropical storm called Danielle ?.

Cheers

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@ Iceberg: Regarding the chart you posted earlier showing a depression near the Azores, i think that's a different system to Danielle, most of the models i've seen have shown either an extratropical or tropical system forming around that area in 5-6 days time.

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Hi Paranoid, which one ?, you may be right as I keep various charts and try to correctly put them in the correct folder so one might be misplaced. :shok:

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Dvorak has dropped to T3.1 or (T3.0 rounded), this would put Danielle to 45Kts, however Microwave imagery is showing her quite abit stronger with no weakening.

The problem with Dvorak is that it's all based on the centre and can underestimate storms that are sheared the 4.00pm update will be interesting IMO this is a 60-65Kt storm, but I know my opinion isn't worth much !

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It should be the last one of the set you posted on here earlier, looks like a wetterzentrale one?

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Cheers.

I've check it out and it is I believe a Low pressure that basically consists of Danielle as the westerlies picks her up, Your right I think about the formation of another low in that area which is showing up on some GFS runs, due to the digging trough and the Tm air brought up in advance of ex-Danielle.

Re this all that can be really said is that Danielle/ex-danielle will be in our area of the North Atlantic in some form or another between the 1st and 4th of September on current GM runs, whether she comes across on the Jet or moves slowly throwing up a Ridge is still very uncertain, If I were a betting man I would say that the first week of september will be warm and potentially wet.

I think they are from NETW, (I wouldn't want to annoy Paul :shok: )

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We have Hurricane Danielle in my opinion!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

Great outflow, the easterly shear is actually been caused by a Tropical wave exiting Africa which is actually adding moisture to this system, and we clearly have a developing eyewall.

In regards to track, you can see it near Newfoundland on this chart, the system near the Azores is a normal low, and the system in the south west of the pic is another system the GFS is trying to develop.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100823/12/141/h500slp.png

GFS has a track which should not be trusted because it has Danielle nowhere near the UK, it merges and stalls with the system behind it mentioned above, and then curves the system back towards the USA.

ECWMF however does have the system heading for the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100823/00/ecmslp.240.png

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Danielle strutting her stuff

dzytxt.gif

2010AL06_1KMSRVIS_201008231645.GIF

nwj9s2.jpg

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An eye is emerging, I think Danielle is going to ramp up nicely soon. 40% chance of rapid intensification as stated by NHC.

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I think it's gotta be a 'cane by now it looks so good!!!

No midget either is she?

Looks like we may end up with 2 form up in the same week if that L.P. develops at the same rate of knots!

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She is indeed Hurricane Danielle

000

WTNT31 KNHC 232033

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010

500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

...DANIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC

SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.4N 41.5W

ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST. DANIELLE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND IS

EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70

MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

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Danielle looks very good probably 70-75 Kts IMO and is undergoing RI.

She is also now officially Hurricane Danielle, won't be a CAT 1 for long and is forecast to turn into a Major. !

THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER

THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM

IS NOW RELAXING. A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT

LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE

SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION. DESPITE THAT

STRUCTURE...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND

SAB...AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS. THE

CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID

INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD

CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN

LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48

HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU

SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND

HWRF.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF

290/15. A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE

HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS

TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL

CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE

GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.4N 41.5W 65 KT

12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 43.6W 80 KT

24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.8N 46.2W 90 KT

36HR VT 25/0600Z 19.6N 48.8W 95 KT

48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.6N 51.3W 100 KT

72HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 55.0W 100 KT

96HR VT 27/1800Z 27.5N 57.0W 95 KT

120HR VT 28/1800Z 30.5N 58.5W 95 KT

Interesting ECM tonight with this Hurricanes track,

The white bit is I believe winds inexcess of 100mph or 45m/s.

This has the potential to be very news worthy, but its very earlier days yet

post-6326-080961800 1282596120_thumb.gif

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