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Joe B And His Forecasts

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Joe B, what a great presenter this man is, his enthusiasm is second to none, he draws your attention, makes the forecast very interesting, even if not applicable to you.

What do we get over here in the UK? a rushed 30 second forecast of little relevance, possibly 1 minute if were lucky.

Joe Be produces forecasts for the UK occasionally, well worth listening to, and you can learn a great deal too.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/558045255001/td-5-did-not-dissipate-may-be-a-gulf-problem-sunday-wednesday.asp?partner=faceboo

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He is a very good forecaster although at times he can be a bit OTT his forecast for last Winters Severe cold in the Eastern US and Northern Europe however was spot on. Generally someone who should be listened to he knows his stuff.

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Joe B, what a great presenter this man is, his enthusiasm is second to none, he draws your attention, makes the forecast very interesting, even if not applicable to you.

What do we get over here in the UK? a rushed 30 second forecast of little relevance, possibly 1 minute if were lucky.

Joe Be produces forecasts for the UK occasionally, well worth listening to, and you can learn a great deal too.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/558045255001/td-5-did-not-dissipate-may-be-a-gulf-problem-sunday-wednesday.asp?partner=faceboo

Looks like this particular forecast has busted...

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His forecasts are no better than those of others...

As I said, his presentation and enthusiasm is first class, I agree his forecasts are probably no better than others, but then again I wasn’t really referring to accuracy in my initial post. In my opinion, I think it would be good to see this type of presentation over here, yes we do have some very good presenters, but they are not given the time and freedom to express and give there best.

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As I said, his presentation and enthusiasm is first class, I agree his forecasts are probably no better than others, but then again I wasn’t really referring to accuracy in my initial post. In my opinion, I think it would be good to see this type of presentation over here, yes we do have some very good presenters, but they are not given the time and freedom to express and give there best.

Couldn't agree more, Paul. This has been a pet topic of mine for years.

I've written to the BBC on several occasions about the limited time allocated to weather forecasts but to no avail.

Despite their platitudes it's quite obvious that programme trailers are of more importance to them than the weather and I've lost count of the number of occasions when some tedious interview with a politician, whose only skill seems to be a long winded way of saying nothing, has eaten into the limited weather forecast time on the Today programme on Radio 4.

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Couldn't agree more, Paul. This has been a pet topic of mine for years.

I've written to the BBC on several occasions about the limited time allocated to weather forecasts but to no avail.

Despite their platitudes it's quite obvious that programme trailers are of more importance to them than the weather and I've lost count of the number of occasions when some tedious interview with a politician, whose only skill seems to be a long winded way of saying nothing, has eaten into the limited weather forecast time on the Today programme on Radio 4.

hit the nail on the head there TM, blame the BBC for its their fault entirely, some of the Met forecasters over the years would knock spots off Joe B for presentation skills IF they had ever been given the time.

Perhaps the best if he was given the time of the present bunch would be Peter Gibbs.

Going back to the Radio 4 forecasts. That used to be, before TV took over, the flagship presentation around the regions. Only once you had proved your ability with presentation or rather ability to explain things in a few words were you allowed to be responsible for this. The ones today are a but a pale imitation of the standard that used to be, and as you say, often even less time than the supposed very brief allocation already given.

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I agree that the Beeb need to give more time to the forecasts. As for Joe B okay giving forecasts but if they tend to be busted you might as well have me talking for 20 minutes.

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The BBC forecasts are much longer than the 30 seconds - 1 minute above though. Normally closer to 2-3 minutes, however considering that a extra minute on a forecast would be free or at least a very negligible cost, surely it would be cost effective to do longer forecasts.

As for Joe B, he seems to always look for the same things, and this IMO leads to bias in his forecasts, and that is the reason he sometimes goes astray, however his enthusiasm and knowledge is first class.

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Couldn't agree more, Paul. This has been a pet topic of mine for years.

I've written to the BBC on several occasions about the limited time allocated to weather forecasts but to no avail.

Despite their platitudes it's quite obvious that programme trailers are of more importance to them than the weather and I've lost count of the number of occasions when some tedious interview with a politician, whose only skill seems to be a long winded way of saying nothing, has eaten into the limited weather forecast time on the Today programme on Radio 4.

hit the nail on the head there TM, blame the BBC for its their fault entirely, some of the Met forecasters over the years would knock spots off Joe B for presentation skills IF they had ever been given the time.

Perhaps the best if he was given the time of the present bunch would be Peter Gibbs.

Going back to the Radio 4 forecasts. That used to be, before TV took over, the flagship presentation around the regions. Only once you had proved your ability with presentation or rather ability to explain things in a few words were you allowed to be responsible for this. The ones today are a but a pale imitation of the standard that used to be, and as you say, often even less time than the supposed very brief allocation already given.

Hi john, TM

Yes I will second and third that. My first interest in the weather was very likely sparked in the 60’s. Very much helped by those old presenters who were given much more time in those days. Even in the 70’s the time slot was more generous than today, here is an old one from January 1979,though a little rushed here, Michael Fish does well.

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Looks like this particular forecast has busted...

Whilst this isn't really the right place for it, that forecast hasn't busted yet because the models are still very keen on strengthening a tropical low inland and IF it gets over water it will form again, I'm near 100% if it gets over water...notw getting over water may well be what stops this system from re-developing but we won't know till Tuesday-Thursday period.

I personally really like Joe B, for sure he does have a tendency to point out the worst case but having watched/read him he normally gets the right trend, and no denying he totally nailed last winter in terms of the global pattern...

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Joe Bs Ok, its just a pity his winter forecasts come with an agenda, and last year’s was the first that I can recall as being pretty near the mark. Of the BBC presenters Liam Dutton has the dullest voice, but the one that I cannot abide is Dan Corbett, weather for idiots is his style, I have to switch off when he comes on.

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Joe Bs Ok, its just a pity his winter forecasts come with an agenda, and last year’s was the first that I can recall as being pretty near the mark. Of the BBC presenters Liam Dutton has the dullest voice, but the one that I cannot abide is Dan Corbett, weather for idiots is his style, I have to switch off when he comes on.

I also find Dan Corbett very irritating. All this, 'Imagine a blob of plastecine or a long piece of string' and 'Finishing numbers' it's as though he's trying to deliver a forecast in tabloid newspaper soundbites.

I remember the days when Bob Pritchard was on Radio 4, now there was an absolute master. Not only would he never mention a region of the British Isles without outlining which counties were at the edges of region in question but he would also manage to pinpoint local variations in the general weather over that region, particularly during snowfall or thunderstorm events.

How many times do we hear broad generalisations such as 'The Midlands' or 'Northern England' without any qualification as to where one starts and the other ends? It's o.k if you live in one of the extremeties of Britain, there's no disputing Cornwall is in SW England or that Cumbria is in northern England, but not much use in a county like Derbyshire which stetches almost as far north as Manchester and not far short of Leicester in the south.

There was a piece on Radio 4's Feedback programme a week or so ago where the editor of the Today programme was brought in to answer listeners complaints about the lack of time allocated to the weather forecast on that programme.

He was at pains to explain that the weather forecast was very important to them but not so important that they would cut the programme trailers to give it more time, or reduce the amount of time allocated to the interview preceding it. In fact he went so far as to say that it was up to him to decide if the weather situation was important enough to warrant an extra 30 seconds or so, presumably if he steps into his back garden in the suburbs in the morning and isn't blown away or standing in a foot of snow or water then everything is as normal with the weather and the forecasters get 1 minute.

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There was a piece on Radio 4's Feedback programme a week or so ago where the editor of the Today programme was brought in to answer listeners complaints about the lack of time allocated to the weather forecast on that programme.

He was at pains to explain that the weather forecast was very important to them but not so important that they would cut the programme trailers to give it more time, or reduce the amount of time allocated to the interview preceding it. In fact he went so far as to say that it was up to him to decide if the weather situation was important enough to warrant an extra 30 seconds or so, presumably if he steps into his back garden in the suburbs in the morning and isn't blown away or standing in a foot of snow or water then everything is as normal with the weather and the forecasters get 1 minute.

that is pretty awful in my view but sums up the BBC's approach to the weather over very many years. At least its consistent, consistent in that its gradually reduced the amount of time for weather broadcasts on both radio and tv.

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that is pretty awful in my view but sums up the BBC's approach to the weather over very many years. At least its consistent, consistent in that its gradually reduced the amount of time for weather broadcasts on both radio and tv.

Indeed, the sad fact been that the BBC has the best weather forecast of the other channels.

Rob McElwee and Alex Deakin are the most detailed forecasters in my opinion, frequently showing synoptic charts and refering to the Jet Stream.

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Can't stand any of 'em due to their ridiculous glorification of all things sunny and warm instead of just telling it like it is. If I had to choose,I'd go for Rob McElwee. Dan Corbett walks a very fine line between highly amusing and highly irritating and manages to avoid either camp everytime,somehow. Joe B? He's alright.

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Here’s Joe B’s latest European Blog 29/12/10

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 29

CAN I BOTHER YOU FOR A MINUTE?

First of all, watch closely, boys and girls, how the core of the worst cold the rest of the winter is southeast of where it has been. The thaw you see now in the northwest is not the end of winter, but the end of that part of the winter... more back and forth now for the UK and Ireland, which is fun and certainly not done, but the worst is over relative to averages. However, over the heart of the continent, you've seen bad, and you may again see just as bad (I don't have the heart to say worse).

I want to ask you a question. If you were in a fight and thought your opponent was finished then all of a sudden he hit you with some thundering shots, wouldn't you at least think that the fight was not finished. At the least... okay? Common sense? Now even though I BELIEVE this is the start of the cooling over the next 20-30 years in a jagged fashion down, so we are back in the late 1970s according to satellite temps (again all the adjustment to temps being made by people is in the pre satellite era where they are free to do whatever they want with no current measuring crosscheck, which should also make you wonder), I am not willing to say, okay you guys are cooked. You know why? Because even though I think they are, I understand that no fight is done until it's over and one side is driven from the field. So my personal feeling that it's over really doesn't matter, what matters is that you have people that are ignoring major physical realities either by being deceptive, or ignorant of what temperature really is... a measure of energy! And the fact is the higher the average temp is the more the variance in temp has an effect on the global energy budget. I have talked with Joe D'Aleo about a work-up of this to drive home the point about the blocking. It takes much less energy to warm a gas 10 degrees from from the surface up when the average temp is let's say 0, then it does to cool the atmosphere a few degrees where the normal temp is 40. And when we try to quantify the amount of energy being lost in the tropical Pacific by the cooling there, it BLOWS AWAY the warming in the Arctic. It's an effective governor on the Earth's temps and is a precursor to what will be a major switch in the Northern Hemisphere... and once that happens, with the land masses, the temps will really fall. Anyone been watching the Southern Hemisphere, where a lot of the first warning shots started to be fired a few years ago? You can make all the excuses you want, but if you are going to argue the contraction of Northern Hemisphere sea ice is a sign of warming, since the continents are warmed because of previous ocean cycles, then you can't walk away from the reality of what has to be going on in the hemisphere with the most ocean, and hence a higher energy consideration where sea ice is increasing! Only in a world of fantasy can you think you can have it both ways!!! And the physics of the situation argues against you trying to use the temperature as a metric to determine whether the climate is actually warming in a permanent fashion, or there is simply a distortion of where temperatures are being measured higher, since the amount of energy DECREASES rapidly with temp loss. It takes next to nothing to raise temps that much in the Arctic; it takes a heck of a lot to drop them in the tropics!!!

But all this being said, you can see the crash already starting as forecast here back in the spring on the temps. So if you want to use temps as the metric, I say the fight is still on, and on big time and these people saying it's over, or explaining that a fight back is a sign they are winning, are either being deceptive or delusional to the idea that they are absolutely right and what is happening is because of what they say. At the very least, it's a sign that we should let it play out.

The real thing we should be looking at is if there is an accumulation of energy in the Earth's atmosphere system. Simple temperatures given equal weight energy wise to low and high values would be laughed out of any classroom if one is trying to quantify the total energy! It's basic. Why do you think there is weather? Because of the constant fight to even out imbalance. Why is there overrunning? Warmer, more moist air with more energy cannot push out a cold, stable air mass with less energy, so it's forced up and over. The molecules get more excited when they are warmed... etc., etc.

In a way, the whole thing is a bit amusing, if it wasn't that it could be enslaving.

Ciao for now.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/uk-city-list.asp?partner=accuweather&postalcode=CR0%201

Just click on Joe B's link on the lefthand side.

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Joe B appears to be writing the rest of winter off for the UK, but Will Hand seems confused with Joe B's statement...............Below is from Will Hand 09/01/11

He may be right but I'm gobsmacked to be honest. I have been tracking the

stratwarm and it is propagating downwards, strong zonal mean 60-90N rises

now at 10hPa and 30hPa, I am sticking to my guns for now, as I predicted,

models are all over the place as they struggle with the details of the

stratospheric changes http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

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THURSDAY NOON

IS THE WEATHER MAKING MY POINT FOR YOU????

The surge of warmth that is occurring is part and parcel of why I was not bullish on the rest of the winter being cold in the UKMET and IRELAND. Now, it is not that it won't get colder again, but in the end, January and February are going to be looked at as a mere pittance compared to December. And yes, we may have another period where it gets a bit rough, but it's winter... that is supposed to happen. Moral is that if you are looking for the coldest winter in a thousand years, you will have to wait.

However, the major factors I have been saying do have an influence when combined and will continue to tip scales colder over coming years. I just don't think you can assign direct responsibility to any one of them for any given event, but all working in tandem will make a set of occurrences, cold or warm, more likely. Remember, the solar cycles have just flipped, and that effect is somewhat sudden, but much more cumulative. The worst of the weather the last time this occurred happened after three cycles of min... The PDO has just flipped, and the AMO is still warm (and by the way, you are feeling that now). Maritime air with that signal warm... look out.

But I will tell you where it's much colder overall.

I will tell you where it's getting mighty cold... Remember the spring forecast for the global temperature back to normal by March? The pace of January so far says it's already there!!! We were .18 above normal in December, down from the peak of the El Nino spike of the summer... You can argue all you want about whether this past year was the warmest on record (given the readjustments made, if we had satellites trained on 1934, that would probably have blown it away), but you won't have that worry in 2011. Quite the contrary... it may be the coldest year since the mid-'90s, according to objective satellite temperatures perhaps running more than .05 C below normal. Let's keep that in perspective. It doesn't mean that my forecast for the coming decades is a lock... it does mean you can trace directly, if one allows for the lag in the atmosphere in a stimulus-response manner, the ocean as the prime driver, what is driving the global temperatures.

And with the PDO cold, the Atlantic 10 years or so away from it, the answer to where global temperatures are going should be pretty obvious. Throw in solar cycles, and other factors, and you don't need a weatherman to know which way the temperature goes.

Just did the calculation... first 10 days of January are running .10 C BELOW normal!

Isn't this interesting, folks... a meteorologist downplaying his importance in coming up with this answer, as opposed to the opposite side where you are made to feel like an ant because you can't understand all this.

Have I ever told you you're my heroes?

Ciao for now. ****

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/uk-city-list.asp?partner=accuweather&postalcode=CR0%201

Just click on Joe B's link on the lefthand side.

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I've always wondered... Does JB actually write in English or is it another unidentified language? ;)

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I've always wondered... Does JB actually write in English or is it another unidentified language? ;)

Yes, not sure if its Johnprescottish or Alcoholish.

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