Tropical Depression Five

[Paranoid]

000

WTNT35 KNHC 102336

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010

730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.0N 84.1W

ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY

LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE

PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF

OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS

FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN

AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE

TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2

TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO

THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[Iceberg]

The curse of the NHC stikes again , this looks terrible this morning, as shear isn't allowing very much sustained convection.

I fully understand why they made it a TD though given the closeness to the US coastline.

[Rob]

Five is falling apart, will be a remant low shortly.

[Katherine]

That's another one with promise dissipated. The more these systems fall apart because of dry air or shear, the more cynical I've become about 2010 activity predictions.

[Somerset Squall]

The remnant low of TD5 is bringing some very high rainfall totals over Louisiana, particularly the New Orleans area at present. Upto 5 inches of rain has fallen, which is causing some flooding. The remnant low has stopped moving north and is actually inching westwards. Shear has fallen, and if ex-TD5 can move slightly south of west, it may manage to move back over the toasty waters of the GOM. Models have been toying with this idea over the last day, so there is a possibility and it needs to be watched.

Edited August 13, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[CardiffStorm]

NHC are giving a 30% chance of TD5 forming again as the remnant low moves back over the Gulf on Monday.

[Cookie]

wow this is what I get for not paying attention

[Somerset Squall]

This is a very interesting system indeed. Looks likely to re-generate, which if it does, it quite some achievment as TD5 degenerated 5 days ago. The system has remained over land for about 4 days of this time, so the fact that it already looks quite healthy again and has not even emerged over water yet is impressive. NHC upped the chances to 50% in the latest TWO.

Thanks for the imagery Cookie

[BornFromTheVoid]

Now up to 60% chance now with lots of convection bubbling up.

I'm guessing this kinda system is very unusual. Are there any records for the longest a depression has spent over land before managing to reach water and re-develop into a TD or storm?

[summer blizzard]

Its upped to 60% now. The best chance for it to develop is to cross Florida quickly, heading south east, if it can do this then it can meander and strengthen before it gets caught by the Jet Stream in around 48 hours.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Its upped to 60% now. The best chance for it to develop is to cross Florida quickly, heading south east, if it can do this then it can meander and strengthen before it gets caught by the Jet Stream in around 48 hours.

I think it's moving westwards SB, looks like clipping the Louisiana coast and into the warmest waters in the Gulf.

[Somerset Squall]

Recon are in the remnants now, reporting pressure of 1009mb, but I think they haven't reached the centre yet. Plenty of convection with ex-TD5, and it appears to be getting better organised. We will soon see if recon find data justifying the system to be reborn. Surprisingly, it is practically where it dissipated! The remains are currently moving westwards quite quickly so may not have much time over water.

[londonsnow]

what a wierd feature td5 is proving to be.seems to be developing again, maybe it'll hit florida as a weak td

[summer blizzard]

It has moved onshore, development is not expected.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, still providing some pretty heavy rains to the Gulf coast however.