Convective Weather UK

[The watcher]

Thursday shows some risk for NI, LI -2, Cape upto 600j/kg with a nice wee wind conversion running into Scotlands West coast and Isles. Subject to change and availability of course.

[Coast]

A tiny bit more promise, true....

[Thundery wintry showers]

A scattering of sharp showers look like being set off during Tuesday afternoon ahead of the approaching Atlantic fronts. Nothing major in terms of thundery activity but maybe I might see my first cumulonimbus for two and a half months!

[Andy Bown]

A scattering of sharp showers look like being set off during Tuesday afternoon ahead of the approaching Atlantic fronts. Nothing major in terms of thundery activity but maybe I might see my first cumulonimbus for two and a half months!

Will you though even if they're there?

There was a lovely storm here yesterday afternoon but you couldn't make out the CB at all, it was misty with broken Altocumulus

most of the day until mid-afternoon when the sky gradually turned very black but with no discernable cloud formation.

I suppose though that the air/sky on Tuesday will be clearer so allowing 'clean' convective conditions.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think most of the dust and pollution associated with the anticyclone will have dispersed by Tuesday so it should be "cleaner", though I certainly can't rule out the possibility of cloud obscuring any Cb cells or perhaps just being limited to TCu (as happened on 12 February).

[Evening thunder]

I remember a similar thing happening to me in Lancaster on the 18th June 2004. I decided to go into the university library to get some books renewed, at a time when there were some Cb cells about but nothing major (and Lancaster rarely gets thunderstorms from northerlies- Spanish plumes and cyclonic southerly/south-westerly types are by far the biggest providers of thunder activity in that area of the country). It took a lot longer than expected and, part-way through my stay in the library I thought I could hear torrential rain. Came outside, and yes, I'd just missed a fairly significant thunderstorm!

I think your luck should turn around at some point- your location was pretty unlucky in 2009 (repeatedly missing the exciting weather that hit Exeter) and 2010 was a naff year for storms across most of the country, not just south Devon. You might not even have missed much in the 15 June 2009 instance (Exeter's storm was intense, but localised). Devon might not get as many storms as East Anglia, Lincolnshire and the SE, or even Yorkshire, but given the right setup individual months can be quite thundery, e.g. June 2005, October 2006.

I didn't read the earlier posts about yesterday's convective potential but it did get quite stormy-looking in Norwich last evening- we had that sort of "hazy with high pollution levels" type sunset with some significant cumulus congestus clouds sprouting up, which quite often precedes thunderstorms when continental air is dominant in summer, but nothing came of it.

Somehow that story almost sounds slightly familiar, It's always annoying missing exciting weather..

I think you will be right hopefully, I can remember some very good Spanish plume set up storms before, e.g late June 2005, August 2004 I think, and coupe in summer 06. With the 15th June event I knew there was a thunderstorm going on because we could hear the thunder outside,. There was a small window I could see and could tell it was raining pretty heavily, even thought I caught a flash out the corner of my eye. Can remember it was quite annoying not being able to jump up and go and look out. though this wasn't quite a direct hit at home apparently.

[Mesoscale]

August 2006 and June 28th? 2009 stick out to me as there where some hefty storms! with the latter producing some pea size hail the biggest id ever seen.

Another time which i cant remember the date i was standing looking south west at a CB at dusk I could see quite alot of lightning coming from it but it was heading northwest so it would miss me, i was enjoying watching it standing in the middle of my garden, there was a massive flash behind me. turns out there was a line of storms heading north west and one was about to come right over me. it was weird as the CBs blended with the dark blue sky which made them hard to make out. the storm died just as it got over head giving us a nice shower but that was it.

15th june 2009 the storms dodged round me, and I missed the nice little storm london got in feb of this year.

Bring on the storms though we had a total of 0 storms here last year with 1 clap over head which was pittiful and I only heard about 4 claps of thunder in the distance.

I had some brilliant storms in mexico so that made up for it.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Current model outputs continue to suggest a showery day tomorrow... but interestingly there's a dry area developing centred on Norwich! :lol:

[chapmanslade]

Will you though even if they're there?

There was a lovely storm here yesterday afternoon but you couldn't make out the CB at all, it was misty with broken Altocumulus

most of the day until mid-afternoon when the sky gradually turned very black but with no discernable cloud formation.

A few miles away the view was clearer once the storm had got going as it sucked up a lot of the general crud. Nice view of lightning from here.

[Jane Louise]

Morning all

Plenty of Altocumulus here which bodes for a good convective day here hopefully!

The Met Office have mentioned some potentially quite heavy showers this afternoon, especially in Wiltshire and Gloucestershire.

Estofex has a chance for many in the South too. Good luck my friends.

Within the low geopotential heights across central Europe, two short-wave troughs are crossing during the forecast period. One will affect France/western Alps while the second one affects SW Balkans peninsula. A building ridge approaches the Iberian peninsula later towards Tuesday.

At surface, a rather stationary baroclinic zone streches across central Europe. It separates weakly unstable environment to its south from the cool air northwards. Models are in good agreement of marginal convection on going mostly during the daytime hours over the 50% highlighted areas, while being in the very low or zero shear. Severe storms are unlikely, though some wind gusts or marginal hail cannot be excluded. Especially over France where kinematics seem enhanced under the cold upper levels.

Elsewhere, a few diurnal driven showers / thunderstorms are expected, triggered by the local topography features.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Coast]

Morning all

Morning Jane!

Estofex has a chance for many in the South too.

Just seen that!

What have other people got?:

I think its a long shot, but worth keeping an eye on the French side of the Channel.

We could probably do with a fresh thread now: