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New day, new thread! Remember, this thread is for more focussed, technically based discussion on storm potential. We now have a thread for general discussion about storms or what's currently happening/not happening in your area here:

netweather.tv/general-storm-discussion-thread

We also have somewhere to post your storm reports please, here:

netweather.tv/storm-reports

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OK, what does today have in store other than an amazing win against Germany and Button or Hamilton coming first in the F1 GP ???? :good:

ESTOFEX say:

post-6667-066397700 1277622888_thumb.jpg

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 27 Jun 2010 06:00 to Mon 28 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 27 Jun 2010 05:24

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

An upper ridge is centered over France and will stretch northward towards the S Baltics. Very warm air from S Spain is advected to the northeast into S France and SW Germany. Between the ridge and an upper trough over the British Isles, a strong southwesterly upper flow will establish. Some instability is forecast in the transition zone between the ridge and the trough over Iberia and France in an environment with marginal shear.

Another plume of unstable air overspreads the Ionian / Aegean Sea and parts of Greece and Turkey near the centre of an upper cut-off low. This low will move eastward during the period, affecting Turkey and parts of the eastern Mediterranean.

A strong frontal boundary is present over W Russia, separating hot and moist air in the eastern parts from cool air in the western parts. This region should be the focus for severe convective storms on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

...Iberia and France...

Recent GFS runs show up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in this region with only weak vertical shear and rising geopotential heights. Some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will develop and may locally pose a risk of large hail and isolated flash floods. Given the isolated nature of such an event, no threat level was issued.

Similar conditions are expected in N Italy during the afternoon hours. 0-6 km shear has decreased to values below 10 m/s which indicates that organised severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

UKASF say:

bf0526abe9adc9d112c713240afeeb56.png

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-06-27 00:55:00

Valid: 2010-06-27 00:00:00 - 2010-06-27 23:59:00

Regions Affected

C, E + S Scotland and Northern Ireland (all of Scotland, Northern Ireland and eastern England are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

A slack southerly airflow develops between Low pressure "Ilse" over the North Atlantic and High pressure "Xerxes" to the east of the United Kingdom

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across Scotland and Northern Ireland in response to daytime heating and instability. Local torrential downpours are possible, and there is a threat of a weak funnel or tornado developing.

Isolated sharp showers or local thunderstorms may develop in a few places across eastern England later in the afternoon and into the evening. Such storms may produce locally very high rainfall totals, gradually drifting northeastwards during the evening, before fading as they cross the North Sea.

A selection of charts and indications:

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_30.GIF

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_18_00Z.png

PGNE14_CL.gif

Rmgfs186.gif

gfs_icape_eur18.png

gfs_kili_eur18.png

gfs_spout_eur18.png

gfs_lapse_eur18.png

gfs_thetae_eur18.png

gfs_mixr_eur18.png

skew0.824988670720817.png

skew0.365801548658968.png

skew0.641173078752221.png

skew0.35592290440491.png

Lucky old Paul Sherman may be in with a shout on the Norfolk Broads later this afternoon (but things seems more favourable towards Cambridgeshire or Scotland)

Current conditions:

ASII_20100627_0630.png

uk_dewpoints_i1_points_metric.png

england_flag_19.gif

I hope everyone gets a result by the end of the afternoon.....

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Well, IMO all the charts are wrong.

There will be super cells about and they will line up in an orderly fashion and work their way to Gloucester.

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after a clear start we now have loads of convection and some big towers forming already.

i'm quietly confident for later on today.

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Think there is still a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm breaking out around Lincolnshire/Norfolk regions and perhaps further north towards the Hull region late on this afternoon and into evening. Despite the build-up of SBCAPE as temperatures rise into the high 20s and more moisture becomes available, rather strong upper ridge and convective inhibition (CINH) will work against showers or thunderstorms developing. If a thunderstorm does develop then it will form along the rather defined convergence zone progged by models, situated over aformentioned areas this afternoon. If a storm does manage to develop over this region, then it would be within a sufficiently deep-layer sheared environment given increasing winds aloft - so a small risk of a storm becoming organised and long-lived.

Much further north across Scotland, a few hundred j/kg SBCAPE is generated through day-time heating and sufficient mid-level lapse rates, and should contribute to the development of heavy showers and perhaps an isolated weak thunderstorm given better lift.

I agree with you there mate,

Just woken up, and no word of a lie, its not just nice and warm, its HOT! just hit 25.7c in my back garden already and its not even in the sun!

hopefully it will be like bombs going off later.

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i see the system off Western France is being drawn up towards Southern England does anyone have any idea what this could mount to?

Knowing my luck nothing!! we need rain or something exciting

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No storms today. The set up doesn't look right. As usual a good chance predicted a few ago has vanished without trace.

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Just hit 30C here

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Just a reminder - we have 2 threads on the go for convective discussion - this one for forecasting and more in depth posts, and another one for general chat:

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Guest FireStorm

i see the system off Western France is being drawn up towards Southern England does anyone have any idea what this could mount to?

Knowing my luck nothing!! we need rain or something exciting

I Tend to agree. There's nothing there to really suggest any storm activity kicking off this far south. True French imports should roll in soon enough though, That's when we get hammered by storms for the South and SE! :lol:

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Was a few storms over Northern Ireland today, I heard a few rumbles of Thunder from an approaching small cell, but then this died off as it came overhead.

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Was a few storms over Northern Ireland today

More due today???

post-6667-076251400 1277707517_thumb.jpg

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 28 Jun 2010 06:00 to Tue 29 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 27 Jun 2010 17:42

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Ukraine, N-Moldova and NE-Romania mainly for large hail and locally excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Over Europe, weak geopotential height gradients prevail. An upper low over SE Europe remains in place as frontal zone over Ireland/UK/Scotland strengthens. Mid-/upper levels are still cool enough for moderate to steep lapse rates, enough for adequate CAPE build-up.

We won't reflect high CAPE amounts over France in our forecast strategy, as BL air mass (in model data) seems to be too moist compared to latest synop reports. Even with some moisture recovery at LL, moisture layer will be quite shallow, prone to mixing. 500 to 1000 J/kg are forecast in N-Spain, France and N-Italy. Shear is non existent, so pulse storms with strong wind gusts and marginal hail will be the main hazard. Also, locally excessive rainfall is possible, given rapid clustering and slow storm motion.

The same for SE/E-Europe. Central Ukraine may see a few organized storms due to enhanced 0-3km shear, supportive for a few large hail reports.

An isolated large hail event is possible ober central Norway/Sweden and N-Algeria, as shear is somewhat better, but nothing too widespread to go with a level 1.

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_30.gif

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_18_00Z.png

PGNE14_18_CL.gif

Rtavn1811.png

gfs_icape_eur18.png

gfs_layer_eur18.png

gfs_kili_eur18.png

gfs_spout_eur18.png

gfs_lapse_eur18.png

gfs_the700_eur18.png

gfs_stp_eur18.png

Current conditions:

ASII_20100628_0600.png

Reurmetd.gif

After tomorrow, looking a bit sparse for a while :shok:

MU_Manchester_avn.png

MU_London_avn.png

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We are one of the few areas of the whole of EUROPE not under a storm watch...grrrr!!

Still, loving the weather now - a full, unbroken week of blue skies and temps between 25-31C...oh yeah!! Meant to stay in high 20s for most of this coming week for the SE too with little rainfall!

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thats very heavy rain heading towards the UK...

wonder if it will turn into anything electrical later tonight

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thats very heavy rain heading towards the UK...

wonder if it will turn into anything electrical later tonight

Its not forecast too. If it did you know it will only be in the East anyway. Lol.

Barely any rain is forecast here anyway.

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Its not forecast too. If it did you know it will only be in the East anyway. Lol.

Barely any rain is forecast here anyway.

the thing is Blizzards I have seen no TS forecast before over the yrs.....And they do catch the weather forecasts out from time to time....

not often but they do happen..

with any heavy rain I always keep a open mind and a eye on things..

A classic was when a forecast said it will be dry this afternoon everywhere with very high temps......as he was saying that we were having a huge Thunderstorm.. :)

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Amazingly thunder potential for this coming week is pretty low. Skew-T forecasts suggest that a strong cap will be in place for much of the week which is probably one of the main reasons.

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I'm astounded that we are under Thunderstorm watch again today....I highly doubt I'll see anything though. That looks to be some mighty Thundery rain though heading into South Irelan at the minute....wonder if it has any s-ferics in it.

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Upper trough moving east, above shallow surface low moving ENE across Nern England tonight with attendant cold front moving east engages a rather warm moist Tm airmass advecting NE ahead of the frontal boundary:

post-1052-092581900 1277728341_thumb.png

This warm moist airmass looks to become unstable tonight across Irish Sea, N Wales and N England in particular – with GFS showing several 100 j/kg of MLCAPE, forcing from upper trough/cold front should be sufficiently strong for convection and perhaps some embedded elevated storms in the heavy thundery rain expected to move ENE across these areas tonight. Fairly strong jet winds aloft may organise storms, though given likely elevated nature, severe weather would appear unlikely other than excessive rainfall.

post-1052-045129800 1277728369_thumb.pngpost-1052-080566500 1277728391_thumb.png

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ESTOFEX area just touching the East coast today:

post-6667-097451500 1277794693_thumb.jpg

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 29 Jun 2010 06:00 to Wed 30 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 28 Jun 2010 23:17

Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for parts of south-central Ukraine, northern Moldova and northeastern Romania mainly for large hail and excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

As previous days, a rather calm period continues across Europe. A weak ridging over much of west-central Europe, a weak upper-level low staying stationary over western Black sea and a NE-wards moving short-wave trough across northern Europe. At surface, a weak frontal boundary extends from western Scandinavia into western Europe.

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_24.GIF

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_12_00Z.png

PGNE14_CL.gif

Rtavn1211.png

gfs_icape_eur12.png

gfs_layer_eur12.png

gfs_kili_eur12.png

gfs_spout_eur12.png

gfs_lapse_eur12.png

gfs_stp_eur12.png

skew0.770143726448627.png

skew0.12910839270717.png

Current conditions:

ASII_20100628_0615.png

Rdtlmetd.gif

Perhaps today might be the last chance of something for a while?

MU_London_avn.png

MU_Manchester_avn.png

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Who said that? :)

here Mr Coasty..lol

they havent changed it so I assume all system's are still looking a possabilty

K Outlook for Sunday 4 Jul 2010 to Tuesday 13 Jul 2010:

Northwestern areas look to set to remain relatively unsettled throughout the period with rain or showers at times and often fresh or strong winds. However, some sunnier spells are also expected, especially to the lee of high ground. Further southeast, a more settled theme looks likely with more in the way of sunshine and lighter winds, and a lower chance of seeing rain or showers, although some are possible at times. There is however a possibility of some thundery rain spreading from the south during the middle part of next week. Temperatures look to be around normal for many northern areas, but warm elsewhere and possibly very warm in the south and southeast at first, and maybe again towards the end of the period.

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Met Office have been keen to show t-storms moving across extreme SE on Friday night for several days now, both on their low-res global model and on their FAX charts (with human input). However, this time round GFS isn't showing this - so who's right? :)

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Met Office have been keen to show t-storms moving across extreme SE on Friday night for several days now, both on their low-res global model and on their FAX charts (with human input). However, this time round GFS isn't showing this - so who's right? :)

I always think the Met over the general GFS charts as they have more sophisticated equipment at there finger tips...

just have wait and see if the Met change it either way

certainly been a stormless year for most parts

UK's death ridge

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Im new on here dont know who D32 is...who is he..lol..

Harry what do reckon on the Met saying a possability of a Thundery Plume ..any thoughts

I think if current ECM charts win out, then there is a fairly decent chance I reckon, especially with a shallow LP system sitting to our SSW...who knows though what the charts will read nearer the time...probably nothing favourable :)

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Met Office have been keen to show t-storms moving across extreme SE on Friday night for several days now, both on their low-res global model and on their FAX charts (with human input). However, this time round GFS isn't showing this - so who's right? :)

Showing it on their TS threat output, but it's a tiny corner over me late evening/early Saturday :lol:

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_60_00Z.png

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_72_00Z.png

GFS:

Rtavn6011.png

Rtavn7211.png

More likely overnight perhaps?

skew0.485090510760532.png

skew0.124924376214953.png

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