Hurricane Alex

[Iceberg]

NHC have started their next pass flying NW to SE, winds will be lower here, but the pressure readings will be interesting.

The eye doesn't seem to be doing very well on radar again and is suffering from the multiple bands and the weaker inner small eye

[Iceberg]

Recon are currently in the eye having a good look backwards and forwards for the lowest pressure, atm they can't find anything as low as on the previous past, so it looks like due to poor eye structure, pressure is a little higher.

Recon have come back out in the NW quad and found the below so flight winds upto 92kts, which might just be enough to get Alex upto 80kts but still just shy of a CAT 2.

143030 2429N 09445W 8423 01418 9915 +171 +159 141088 090 051 006 00

143100 2430N 09444W 8422 01422 9918 +171 +159 139087 091 051 006 00

143130 2431N 09442W 8435 01410 9919 +175 +158 142088 089 052 004 00

143200 2432N 09441W 8429 01421 9922 +176 +159 142086 087 053 006 00

143230 2433N 09440W 8429 01423 9925 +175 +161 141084 085 054 006 00

143300 2434N 09439W 8428 01427 9930 +171 +164 140087 088 053 006 00

143330 2435N 09437W 8429 01429 9935 +170 +165 138090 092 052 006 00

143400 2436N 09436W 8425 01435 9937 +171 +165 137089 090 053 006 00

143430 2437N 09435W 8425 01440 9942 +170 +164 138090 091 052 007 00

Edited June 30, 2010 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

92kts will justify upping the winds to 75kts. Problem for this sytem has become rather obvious from recon, in fact now I've been around for a while its quite obvious. Rather then the system focusing in all the explosive energy which the pressure dropping has caused into blowing up the core eyewall it has instead spread that energy out into several seperate high wind band.

The thing to watch for is if the Inner eyewall starts to record higher wind speeds and the outer eyewalls weaken...if that happens RI is briefly possible before landfall. If it doesn't then Alex will come in probably around 80kts. Sat.imagery does sorta suggest we are getting a bit of both at the moment and so I feel 85-90kts is probably still a safe estimate for now.

Also worth noting there has been a movement towards NW in the last 6hrs, so we need to watch this very carefully. Extrapolated movement takes it rather close to Brownsville, probably close enough to gfet wind gusts close to hurricane force. The Rio Grande region looks like it will in general get borderline hurricane force gusts, the sustained hurricane force winds will likely remain in the eyewall which I think should stay just south in far N.Mexico. Landfall therefore should still be in N.Mexico but it may well come very close tothe border.

This is classic tropics and why its by far the hardest Macro-scale forecasting out there, none of the models caught this until it started, the 18z GFDL last night briefly hinted at it but was no where near agressive enough with it. This means some people further north who saw it bend with the NHC probably weren't too concerned by it may be in for a big surprise...and unlike a good number of forecast disiplines, peoples lives really can depend on good forecasts...

Edited June 30, 2010 by kold weather

[MAF]

latest Forecast/Advisory from NHC

issued at 1500Z

HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO

GRANDE

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 95.5W AT 30/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB

EYE DIAMETER 10 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.

50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

34 KT.......175NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 240NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 95.5W AT 30/1500Z

AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.1N 96.7W

MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 50NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.

50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 98.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[kold weather]

The NHC look too far south already on that forecast Alex still moving NW and is at 24N more or less, so unless it bends back westwards very soon (in the next hour ro two) then the NHC will be too far south. Just keep an eye on radar and watch the *whole* CDO rather then just the eye because its still far enough out from radar to shift about as the radar 'sees' more of the convection in the eyewall.7

Rather worried that people in the Rio Grande region haven't prepared fully for a hurricane as it has been forecasted to hit to thier south for some time and may not have been paying attention to it. I still expect it to go south of that region but close enough so that they may well get 55-65kt gusts, which may cause some damage to house that are unprepared

[Cookie]

Thanks for all the updates today guys

South padre island webcams

http://www.islagrand.com/live-beach-cam/cam-viewer.htm

http://www.southpadreskycam.com/

[Paranoid]

Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning Storm Surge

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000

WTNT31 KNHC 301750

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

100 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE NORTHERN

MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W

ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO

GRANDE

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED

BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

BROWNSVILLE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST.

ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...NEAR 12

MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE

SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST LATER TODAY. THE

CENTER OF ALEX WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO

WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY

MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...135

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME

A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING

SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD

UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE

NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE

BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE

AUTOMATIC STATION IN MATAMOROS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST

OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN

TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...

ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR

SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE

SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN

THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS

ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST

TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD

PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH

GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...

THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME

SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Nick F]

As well as the threat of high winds and heavy rain, noticed there's a tornado watch over far south of Texas, some supercells in the outerbands have tornado warnings.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0430.html

80F dew point at Brownsville, Texas right on the NE Mexico border, very juicy air!

[Iceberg]

Flight winds of 96kts have been recorded now so the winds are still strengthening and must indicate an 80kt hurricane.

The eye has become much better over the last couple of hours and has a very strong eye wall, it is also clearing out(maybe giving us a partially clear eye before landfall). This are all indicative of further pressure falls.

Pressure has actually risen a bit due to the eye re-structure to above 960 but I think it will be dropping now.

Rainfall might be the biggest story of Alex though with over 5 Inchs so far in the Brownsville area of Texas and the storm isn't even half way done yet IMO.

I think this shows the path of alex nicely, it is notably to the north of the current NHC projection, but has started to turn more westnorthwest recently.

The eye is visible clearing out now as well.

[Nick F]

Fantastic being able to see the eye of the hurricane so clearly on US nexrad radar imagery:

Flash flood warning issued for deep south Texas:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX

305 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

NORTHERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...

HARLINGEN VALLEY AIRPORT.

HARLINGEN.

LASARA.

PORT MANSFIELD.

RAYMONDVILLE.

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

ANOTHER HEAVY RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX MOVING

OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN

TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA THROUGH

LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Also - Hurricane Alex local statement:

.STORM INFORMATION...

AT 2 PM HE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 24.53

NORTH LATITUDE 96.60 LONGITUDE...OR 108 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

BROWNSVILLE. ALEX HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHWEST AT

18 MPH BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW A LITTLE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL

BETWEEN 50 AND 90 MILES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE LATE THIS

AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. ALEX HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85

MPH AROUND THE IMMEDIATE CENTER...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

EXTENDING 150 TO 200 MILES ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE

STORM. THIS INCLUDES THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY COAST.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

THE MAIN THREAT TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

WILL THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF

6 TO 12 INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 12 TO 15 INCHES. THE

INCREASING SIZE OF ALEX BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR 20 INCHES IN A

WORSE CASE SCENARIO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO

EXPAND...AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR

HURRICANE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CAMERON AND WILLACY

COUNTY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TIDES ARE ALSO RISING STEADILY

PARTICULARLY ALONG SHORELINES OF THE LAGUNA MADRE BAY...AND MINOR

COASTAL FLOODING MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS OF

COASTAL CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY. FINALLY...THE TORNADO THREAT

CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FEEDER BANDS IN THE

NORTHEAST QUADRANT WILL CONTINUE.

.TORNADOES...

AT LEAST THREE TORNADOES AND ONE FUNNEL CLOUD HAVE BEEN REPORTED

SINCE LATE THIS MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM

THE KING RANCH AND FALFURRIAS SOUTH TO HIDALGO COUNTY AND EAST TO

THE COAST...INCLUDING THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM...UNTIL 8 PM.

OUTER BANDS ARE PRODUCING INTENSE SQUALLS...AND ROTATION WITHIN

THEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUICK BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES THIS

AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[Cookie]

looks amazing tonight

[Paranoid]

Certainly looks a lot more intense than it is. I have trouble believing it's only a Cat 1 storm. Advisory below.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 302036

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 21

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX HEADING TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH 90 MPH WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.5N 96.8W

ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO

GRANDE

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED

BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM

BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST. ALEX

HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR

13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. A GRADUAL

WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY TO THE

NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION IN

MATAMOROS JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...103 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN

TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...

ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR

SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE

SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN

THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS

ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST

TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD

PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH

GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE

COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE

WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME

SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

NHC noted in the forecast discussion that Alex may still yet reach Category 2 before landfall. If so we'll know in the next advisory, which is going to be issued at midnight our time i think.

Edited June 30, 2010 by Paranoid

[Cookie]

From BBC news

US President Barack Obama has declared a state of emergency in Texas as Hurricane Alex bears down on the coast with 80mph (130km/h) winds.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/us_and_canada/10466543.stm

[Somerset Squall]

Expect raised winds next intermediate advisory. With pressures as low as Alex has had, the winds were bound to catch up at some point. Almost looks like a cat 3 major to me, but we'll see.

[Paranoid]

From the looks of the latest satellite images i'd say hurricane force winds are now affecting the Mexican coast. Should make landfull in the next hour or so.

[Paranoid]

Alex now a Category 2, though the pressure and satellite presentation look like it should be more like a Category 4. Bizarre system. That said, a similar thing happened with Hurricane Ike in 2008; that was also a Category 2 but had a pressure of about 940mbar because it was so large, although it didn't have anywhere near as impressive satellie presenantion as Alex does.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 302257

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

600 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN

NORTHEASTERN MEXICO VERY SOON...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.4N 97.2W

ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO

GRANDE

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED

BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM

BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. ALEX IS

MOVING THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN A FEW

HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER

CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY

TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION

IN MATAMOROS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...78 KM/HR AND AN

UNOFFICIAL WEATHER STATION ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND REPORTED A WIND

GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN

TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...

ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR

SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE

SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN

THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHORTLY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST

TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD

PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH

GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE

COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE

WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME

SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM CDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

Edited June 30, 2010 by Paranoid

[Cookie]

[Katherine]

That looks very chuffing impressive.

[kold weather]

Yep offically a 85kts category-2...

An utterly amazing hurricane this one, the last 6hrs has seen the presnetation of Alex improve in a huge way with a small and clear eye developing over that time. Earlier inner structual problems have gone as the inner eyewall collapsed around 6-8pm BST and pressure briefly shot up. Since then we've seen a very fast turn around of the system and the presentation is exceptional now.

Dvorak now has a raw number of 6.0 roughly which is suggestive of a borderline 3/4 hurricane and I'd concur as it does look like a category-4 at the moment instead of a 2. What has happened is the earlier double wind Maxima profile has caused the storm to spread its hurricane winds wel out from the center. To get hurricane force winds out 70-90 miles from the center in a minimal category-2 is impressive, quite a few fully matured major hurricane don't have a wind radius of even half that size...

One other final factoid, Alex is now the 2nd strongest hurricane *ever* in June in terms of pressure and is just behind Audrey which had a central pressure of 946mbs and with a current pressure of 949-950mbs, its possible this one still could make the record or tie with it....and its the first hurricane for 15 years...1995 FWIW ended up being hyperactive.

Landfall should be in the next 90 mins, winds should be gusting towards 90-100mph near the coasts, hopefully people have prepared for it...it is slowing down but pretty much landfall is about to occur with this one. Immense Hurricane this one, if it weren't so spread out, it'd no doubt be a major hurricane.

Finally, recon taking probably one last pass of Alex and is finding winds that now certainly justify 85kts with a wind speed of 106kts in the NE eyewall...will find out the pressure in the next few minutes...can it beat the record?!

Edited June 30, 2010 by kold weather

[Cookie]

I might just stay up for landfall

[kold weather]

That presentation is just unreal for a category-2 hurricane, may just be one of the most stunning category-2 hurricanes I've ever seen!

Amazing system, look at the great connection to the upper level low over NE states/E.Canada!

If this system had a little longer to develop I'd imagine we would probably have a 105-115kts hurricane, we are just lucky the double wind Maxima really expanded the wind Radii earlier this eveing otherwise we'd have a rapidly bombing major right now heading for landfall, have no doubts about that all, as it is its still a low end hurricane 2 which is nothing to be sniffed at!

[Cookie]

That presentation is just unreal for a category-2 hurricane, may just be one of the most stunning category-2 hurricanes I've ever seen!

Amazing system, look at the great connection to the upper level low over NE states/E.Canada!

If this system had a little longer to develop I'd imagine we would probably have a 105-115kts hurricane, we are just lucky the double wind Maxima really expanded the wind Radii earlier this eveing otherwise we'd have a rapidly bombing major right now heading for landfall, have no doubts about that all, as it is its still a low end hurricane 2 which is nothing to be sniffed at!

is that a sign of things to come u feel?

[Katherine]

That presentation is just unreal for a category-2 hurricane, may just be one of the most stunning category-2 hurricanes I've ever seen!

I'm agog!

[Iceberg]

Well it finally made landfall earlier as a 90Kt 947mb storm, CAT 2, but only shy of a CAT 3 Major status.

Very much agree with the other comments another 24 hrs and this might well have made CAT 4.

Most of all though I am impressed with ECM, which yet again forcast this magnitude of hurricane nearly 9 days out when it was nothing more than a few clouds, ECM was wrong about the landing place, but still deserves alot of credit.

Would have been a nice sight to stand in the eye as the sun was setting on a beach in Mexico.......

[Guest]

Most of all though I am impressed with ECM, which yet again forcast this magnitude of hurricane nearly 9 days out when it was nothing more than a few clouds, ECM was wrong about the landing place, but still deserves alot of credit.

Is Alex forecast to disintegrate over land or will the storm end up back over the ocean at some point?

Edit: If I wasn't so lazy in the first place I would have found this http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025714.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Edited July 1, 2010 by CatchMyDrift