Hurricane Alex

[kold weather]

Yep Paranoid, and given conditions aloft are pretty good as long as it can sort its inner core out pretty quickly I see no reason why it won't get to hurricane strength given there is good heat content and some very good upper air conditions right now.

Cookie, yeah that was quite an eye opener really, whilst I think its still an outside risk the fact some of the models are still trying to go that far north is something that needs watching closely. I personally would be surprised if this ended up getting north of say far S.Texas. However that being said anaylsis of the upper pattern right now does show the upper ridge has decayed a slack upper trough is trying to force the upper high further to the east, however the upper high is stil lstrong to the east so there is only so far the upper trough will get before it has to lift out and the weakness closes. Therefore I suspect what will happen is a NW/WNW track for a while, then possibly a bend back westwards. Some of the GFS ensembles do try and bring it back northwards after that bendback which does need to be watched as well but thats some way off yet.

Should be back over water in about 6-9hrs, then the real fun and games can begin...

[Cookie]

first visible of the day

[The PIT]

first visible of the day

Look pretty good this morning isn't he. So is this going bash up BP's clean up job ???

[Iceberg]

Looking at the latest visuals and Alex is still tighening IMO, with more and better banding. Well over half way across the Yucatan now and according to the NHC he has only lost 2mb or so of pressure, I think a very good chance this will be a hurricane within 12 hrs of being over water, so maybe by tomorrow morning.

Pretty much everything is in place for large pressure drops.

[ukweathergirl]

Is there a chance that the oil slick will be blown inland should the TS pass over the slick?

[kold weather]

Looking at the latest visuals and Alex is still tighening IMO, with more and better banding. Well over half way across the Yucatan now and according to the NHC he has only lost 2mb or so of pressure, I think a very good chance this will be a hurricane within 12 hrs of being over water, so maybe by tomorrow morning.

Pretty much everything is in place for large pressure drops.

Presentation has decayed in the last 2-3hrs, esp in terms of deep convection which is much more shallow then it was even 2-3hrs ago, though the structure is still decent. I think this may take a little longer then 12hrs to get going because of this quick decay and the system is actually slowing down right now so more weakening is likely in the next 3-5hrs before it finally makes it into the waters but then again a good convective blow up could well help to speed up the process. Still once it does finally end up sorting its inner core out again after land conditions aloft look decent so strengthening looks very likely, may even be good enough for some rapid strengthening.

GFS and CMC on thier 12z going for a landfall in the USA...however Alex has actually tracked only slightly north of west over the last few hours and so if these solutions are to come off Alex best lift out pretty soon, the models that make landfall in C/N.Mexico have a far more realisitic motion at the moment and therefore I still think those models are more likely to come off but we shall see, I'd never rule out anything just yet...

Edited June 27, 2010 by kold weather

[crimsone]

So, a TD again... the question is, how well will its core be doing by the time it makes it back out to sea, and how long will it spend there before landfalling again? North Mexico seems increasingly likely... keep watching that ridge

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg

Centres coming offshore now, however it has very little convection around it.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed SB, about another hour and the centre should move over water. As has been said, the structure of Alex is still very good for a system that has been over land for so long, the lack of convection is to be expected without the warm water beneath the cyclone.

[Iceberg]

Yep leaving land now, convection is poor, not surprising given the land and the time of day, however as the NHC put it "SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND

WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. NEAR THE

CENTER...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...PROBABLY DUE TO THE

INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE MEXICAN NAVY SURFACE STATION AT ISLA PEREZ

RECENTLY REPORTED 30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT

AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS

SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX THIS EVENING AFTER THE CENTER MOVES

OFFSHORE. "

Now it's just await and see to how Alex reacts over the next 12 hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Still has a feeder band wrapping into the south of the LLC, could aid in building convection over the LLC sooner rather than later IMO.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ft-l.jpg

Is it just me, or has another centre established in the big blob of convection in the north of the system now over water.

[Cookie]

[kold weather]

High resolution Vis.imagery suggests Alex is pretty much off shore now. Convection is indeed weak but thats something that is quite easily remided once the system has had a good 6-12hrs over water, the D-max tomorrow morning should help to relaly fire deep convection back over the core. Also remember the inflow is still overland and therefore the system probably won't strengthen that quickly for the next 24hrs or so even though it does have still a very good circulation though the MLC and the LLC they aren't quite virtucally stacked at the moment with the MLC just to the SW of the lower level circulation, but that won't take look. That being said modest strengthening is still quite likely in the next 24hrs.

Beyond that and really I see no reason why this system can't get upto 75-90kts type range and I don't think major hurricane can be totally ruled out in this case either. Heat content is more then good enough to support a cat-1/2 and higher as well, though shelf waters will probably weaken something above say 90kts at this stage in the game even with the Gulf SST's running well above average. Interestingly and tellingly the NHC have commented on how they think the models probably aren't strengthening Alex enough in the Gulf, most of them still make Alex to a hurricane...

Still a tough call about landfall, models still split into the same two camps with the UKMO/GFDL/ECM on one side and the GFS/CMC/HWRF on the other side so I still wouldn't like to make the call. Given the recent long term motion is about WNW, about 295-300 I'd imagine the middle ground is probably a good idea and that once again probably means the TX/MX border in a similar location to where Dolly hit in 2008 and maybe a little to the north of where the NHC track is, but honestly it could end up hitting C.Mexico or could end up hitting E.Texas. The uncertainty relates to just how quickly an upper subtropical ridge across the US breaks down and whether it tries to rebuild in afterwards and shunt Alex back to a heading closer to due west. Not an easy call...

Turning out to be a very interesting first system of the season, certainly the most interesting A system since...well Alex of 2004 actually!

[kold weather]

Recon flying into Alex have found some *VERY* low pressures indeed, I was quite shocked to be honest!

Pressure down to 991mbs with recon probably finding winds that support a 35kts TS. 991mbs would normally support 55-60kts TS, so a strong TS. This suggests background pressure is low and there may well have been some slight strengthening after landfall, I said yesterday that bursting systems tend to handle thier energy better, from the looks of things Alex handled it better than most, the brief eye development must have helped out.

Convection developing over the center, I think I may have been rather too cautious in my last post about the possible strengthening speed of this system, recon found the actual LLC is still tight and with convection blowing up, it makes me wonder...also turn to the NW seems to have occured in the last few hours, which may mean a greater threat to Texas as well...

This vould be a big story in a few days time folks, what a way to kick off the hurricane season!

[Iceberg]

Recon are back in quite a wide centre lots of 990-991-992 readings., official pressure.

Lots of 45+ flight winds and some above 50 Kts . Based on this I have no doubt that Alex will be a hurricane today.

We still need the convection to pep up over the centre though to get some decent intensification going.

[Iceberg]

Convection is starting to kick off now particularly to away from the NW of the centre. Deep convection is kicking off in the last hr near the centre.

Path is starting to firm up as well, with ECM, GFS, GFDL and HWRF all going for a hit somewhere between corpus christi and Galveston i.e Texas.

I would expect a north shift in the landing zone of Alex in the next advisory.

Intensity looks to be 990-991 with 40-45Kt winds IMO. Recon will be back in aroud or just after lunchtime depending on when you have lunch.

Basically Aircraft fixes every 6 hrs.

Edited June 28, 2010 by Iceberg

[Paranoid]

10am (our time) advisory here.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 280853

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 11

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

400 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 91.6W

ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO

ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR THE

COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. ALEX IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS...AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON

TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF

4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND

PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS AND

VERACRUZ TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Iceberg]

Yep nice to see NHC fully concur, 990mb with 45 kts, deep convection near the centre

"DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -84C HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR

AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR

FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT AROUND 05Z FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE

TO STILL BE AROUND 991 MB...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD INCREASED TO

51 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 38 AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO

MEASURED AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 41 KT IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ON

ITS OUTBOUND LEG. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MARKED INCREASE

IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE RECON FIX...THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT."

Path change is much as predicted as well, with a northward shift

"THE ENTIRE NHC MODEL

SUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE

ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN SEE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE THE

ECMWF...UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY NOGAPS DEPICT ALEX AS A SMALLER AND

WEAKER CYCLONE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING. GIVEN THAT

Intensity is also good, with the NHC making Alex a Hurricane sooner than before and they are now forecasting Alex to hit CAT 3 and become a major hurricane.

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...

GREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAS

RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT STILL

REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN."

[Cookie]

[Iceberg]

He's got the look of a top end TS now with the sharp outflow and tight convective banding. Particularly on the NW side away from land interaction, no doubt that land is effecting Alex a bit but not very much overall IMO.

A few more hours for recon, which might just find boardline Hurricane winds, certainly top end TS.

[Iceberg]

My timings is off Recon are in now and are just approaching the centre. the below are the first real results.

111630 2034N 09058W 9246 00675 9993 +205 +153 135045 047 034 003 00

111700 2033N 09059W 9258 00664 9992 +204 +153 135047 048 035 003 00

111730 2032N 09100W 9253 00666 9990 +203 +152 134048 048 035 004 00

111800 2031N 09101W 9246 00672 9989 +201 +151 134049 050 035 004 00

111830 2029N 09102W 9252 00663 9987 +199 +150 134050 050 035 005 00

111900 2028N 09103W 9247 00667 9984 +202 +148 135049 050 037 003 00

111930 2027N 09104W 9246 00666 9982 +201 +146 134050 051 035 005 00

[Iceberg]

Pressure so far now sub 990, with a clearly defined centre occuring with atm gradual pressure drops.

113200 2002N 09132W 9266 00577 9897 +225 +161 172005 007 021 003 00

113230 2002N 09134W 9246 00595 9897 +224 +165 292002 005 020 003 00

113300 2002N 09135W 9250 00594 9899 +225 +168 327006 007 999 999 03

Generally according to Dvorak classifications pressure of between 985 and 990 would just support a CAT 1 Hurricane, so even without any further strong pressure drops, winds should increase to 60-65kts over the coming hours.

[Iceberg]

Latest Vortex.

A. 28/11:32:20Z

B. 20 deg 02 min N

091 deg 33 min W

C. 925 mb 593 m

D. 46 kt

E. 063 deg 14 nm

F. 131 deg 57 kt

G. 053 deg 24 nm

H. EXTRAP 989 mb

I. 20 C / 761 m

J. 23 C / 707 m

K. 16 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1234 / 9

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 0501A ALEX OB 07

MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 11:23:40Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

GOOD SPIRAL BAND EAST SIDE OF CENTER FIX

;

[Iceberg]

Qutie a wide area of 60+kt flight winds some upto 65Kts on the latest recon, so strengthening is still happening.

132200 2019N 09126W 9253 00621 9941 +190 +178 132062 063 049 010 00

132230 2020N 09125W 9247 00631 9943 +202 +172 131062 062 047 005 00

132300 2021N 09123W 9250 00633 9946 +205 +169 132062 063 047 008 00

132330 2022N 09122W 9247 00638 9953 +189 +166 134065 066 045 009 00

132400 2023N 09121W 9250 00639 9955 +202 +163 136064 066 044 009 00

132430 2024N 09120W 9248 00645 9956 +213 +161 138061 062 043 004 00

132500 2025N 09119W 9250 00644 9959 +213 +161 138060 062 042 005 00

132530 2027N 09118W 9246 00653 9964 +208 +162 138063 065 042 003 00

132600 2028N 09117W 9251 00648 9966 +206 +163 140064 065 039 005 00

132630 2029N 09115W 9248 00654 9969 +206 +165 141064 065 040 001 00

132700 2030N 09114W 9248 00656 9971 +209 +168 140061 062 038 004 00

132730 2031N 09113W 9248 00658 9974 +205 +170 139062 062 039 002 00

132800 2032N 09112W 9242 00665 9975 +207 +172 140061 061 037 004 00

132830 2033N 09111W 9249 00660 9978 +205 +174 140060 061 036 004 00

132900 2034N 09110W 9254 00657