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snowlover2009

Possible Drought - Parts Of UK Dryer Than Europe

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I get the intention that the UK has been far one of the dryest places this spring. Spain and France have been quite showery in nature. Germany, Poland, and all some eastern countries have been quite mediocre or saying that quite warm this May, but quite rainy too. Scandinavia hasn't doen too bad for warmth either.

Do you think the UK has been dryer or dryest area in europe this spring, particularly from april to may. I have looked at forecasts several times for europe and have been pretty poor. 5 day outlooks many time in april for instance would show 5 days of rain or showers for parts of Spain.

Lets hope it continues into summer. Already we have took most of the heat from this spell of, warm/hot weather.

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I get the intention that the UK has been far one of the dryest places this spring. Spain and France have been quite showery in nature. Germany, Poland, and all some eastern countries have been quite mediocre or saying that quite warm this May, but quite rainy too. Scandinavia hasn't doen too bad for warmth either.

Do you think the UK has been dryer or dryest area in europe this spring, particularly from april to may. I have looked at forecasts several times for europe and have been pretty poor. 5 day outlooks many time in april for instance would show 5 days of rain or showers for parts of Spain.

Lets hope it continues into summer. Already we have took most of the heat from this spell of, warm/hot weather.

Well its been incredibly dry here in Southern Wales the rivers are worryingly low If I'm onest and alot of clay pons are drying out wh ich doesnt bode well for amphibians. Have been watering the garden almost daily for the past month due to the dryness of it, it doesnt help that april was unusually dry and the winter allthough cold and snowy dryer than our usuall mild squirl, for my area anyway.

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Well its been incredibly dry here in Southern Wales the rivers are worryingly low If I'm onest and alot of clay pons are drying out wh ich doesnt bode well for amphibians. Have been watering the garden almost daily for the past month due to the dryness of it, it doesnt help that april was unusually dry and the winter allthough cold and snowy dryer than our usuall mild squirl, for my area anyway.

Same situation here, since the beggining of April i have had one front, and three showers in what should be one of the wetter parts of England, 1995 all over again, bring it on!

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welli just cannot get over this dry weather, it is very bizarre. We have not had one day of persistant rain since the start of april and since then any rain has been spits and drizzle or some showers, although one was quite a big downpour at the end of april, but that is it.

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It's all tied in with the generally blocked pattern with Highs in unusual places.

Spring droughts are a common issue though - they always end eventually.

Although rivers are low I think ground water replenished quite well over winter at least locally.

The supposition is that slow-melting snow is very good at getting down into the aquifers which seems almost plausible.

I know our supply spring is running strongly so far anyway.

It usually gives no worries until October even in a very dry summer.

Crops without irrigation are going to be badly affected before long as the long days of June are crucial for the bulk of growth.

I'm rather worried by lack of growth in hay and silage fields, but one good thunderstorm soak would help enormously.

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Roger Brugge's page certainly shows a lot of sub 10mm rainfalls for this month so far (also a fair few in the 20-40mm range). I think it's pretty difficult for consistent showery weather to persist over the Mediterranean during summer. They have their summer minimum of rainfall (nothing at all in some places), whereas much of Britain has no real seasonal variation of rain. So based on this, it would be surprising for the Med to not dry up soon, but as for Britain- who knows?

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Something I posted in the Model Output discussion and thought might be relevant here in regards to the dry weather associated with blocking patterns:

In regards to this blocking we have seen throughout the winter both to our North and West and the very real chance of some kind of blocked pattern continuing, the North of New Zealand too has seen an extremely blocked Summer and Autumn period from January through to May. This in turn lead to widespread droughts officially declared with very little rain falling during the 5 month period. In fact Auckland, a thin sliver of land between the Tasman sea and the Pacific ocean with the prevailing winds westerly and a humid, sub-tropical climate (ie one where you expect at least reasonable rain during the summer), also saw drought conditions with little noticeable rain falling through the summer and it becoming the driest summer quarter (or any quarter of the year) since records began. February and March both saw records broken with 5 and 8mm respectively, in addition to April continuing the very dry pattern, which is way below the average for the time of year.

The dry conditions which have caused major problems for farmers and those who live in rural communities such as my Auntie who many of whom live off water tanks, meaning water has had to have been bought in by trucks frequently. However, the highs also brought noticeably above average temperatures and meant summer lasted deep into the autumn, the term 'Indian summer' being thrown about on some articles I've read, in addition to above average sunshine hours across much of the upper North Island.

The main point of this ramble is that the blocking highs situated across the Tasman have proved very stubbourn and have only recent been broken with multiple sub-tropical depressions moving in from the North and it seems a similar situation has been experienced in the UK these last few months. This blocking may be very difficult to displace and it would be interesting if it could situate itself in a favorable position, such as we have just experienced, but for a more extended period of time through the summer. I don't know... Just an example I found interesting, in that blocking patterns seem to be common place across the globe (or at least in these two places where it isn't common) and have the potential to remain in influence for many months at a time - something that might provide food for thought.

Some short articles from a NZ Weather site -weatherwatch.co.nz some might find an interesting read, although I'm not saying I think this is likely to happen in the UK also, its interesting to see the result of such blocking patterns through the summer:

Driest quarter for more than 50 years

Record breaking dry spell for Auckland

Drought creates feed shortage for winter

Drought officially declared in Auckland, Waikato

Its the middle of Autumn, so where are the storms?

Indian summer rolls on for some

Auckland needs to save water now

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River and reservoir levels are currently very low in North West England and South Wales. The Environment Agency produce river flow data and reservoir data weekly and monthly respectively and these make for quite interesting reading, I have put the links below:

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/Leisure/Drought_18June10.pdf

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/Research/WSR_May_2010_national.pdf

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/Research/Weekly_Summary_150610.pdf

I have also put a couple of pictures up on my site that I took over the weekend at Pontsticill Reservoir in the Brecon Beacons.

http://cardiffstormchaser.net/stories/south_wales_drought_210610.html

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Roger Brugge's page certainly shows a lot of sub 10mm rainfalls for this month so far (also a fair few in the 20-40mm range). I think it's pretty difficult for consistent showery weather to persist over the Mediterranean during summer. They have their summer minimum of rainfall (nothing at all in some places), whereas much of Britain has no real seasonal variation of rain. So based on this, it would be surprising for the Med to not dry up soon, but as for Britain- who knows?

Britain actually has quite a large rainfall variation with April the driest month on average and i would assume that October is the wettest with double the amount on average.

The Mediteranian is on average drier than the UK year round, drier summers and drier winters, though most rainfall is in the form of showers rather than persistant frontal rainfall.

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