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jethro

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Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent

It must be a year since I last posted in the climate area, but I wanted to come back and plug the ozone depletion theory has a significant effect on Climate change argument.

Interesting new research highlights two link between Ozone depletion and Climate change:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_898_en.html

It will be interesting to see the full report early in the new year, but I always believed the link was obvious and far more significant then first thought.

Incidentally the ozone hole was the second smallest it has been in the last decade this year.

Edited by HighPressure
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

As a n 'add on' to the increase in " 1 in a hundred year" events

http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/Lloyds/Reports/Emerging%20Risk%20Reports/East%20London%20Extreme%20Rainfall_Finalv2.pdf

The above is a paper submitted by Lloyd's of London and brings some interesting data to the table. Did you know 40mm rainfall events in E. London have increased 900% since 1960? 1 such event from 1915 to 1960 and 10 such events since 1960 up to 2006........now are 'extreme weather events occurring more often around the world or is it just the 'media' reporting them more?????

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I think an increase from 1 event to 10 events is too small a sample size to be meaningful. Consider the possibility that someone could have trawled through hundreds of different locations and time periods to find one that just by chance offers such a comparison.

The number of days with more than 25 mm was about 45, and increased to just over 60, and being a larger data set, this does look a little more like it could be a real trend, and not nearly as spectacular as the >40mm case. Of course even for those numbers, if you looked through dozen of locations with purely random variations in rainfall it would not surprise me to see some increases of that size purely from chance.

I do expect that the number of higher rainfall events should have increased in the last few decades, but I'd want to see more data before I'd consider this confirmed.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think an increase from 1 event to 10 events is too small a sample size to be meaningful. Consider the possibility that someone could have trawled through hundreds of different locations and time periods to find one that just by chance offers such a comparison.

The number of days with more than 25 mm was about 45, and increased to just over 60, and being a larger data set, this does look a little more like it could be a real trend, and not nearly as spectacular as the >40mm case. Of course even for those numbers, if you looked through dozen of locations with purely random variations in rainfall it would not surprise me to see some increases of that size purely from chance.

I do expect that the number of higher rainfall events should have increased in the last few decades, but I'd want to see more data before I'd consider this confirmed.

Hi Micheal!

I hear what you say and 'statistically I'd guess that your thinking is sound. It's just that ,over the past couple of years, I've been looking at the folk who have to foot the 'bill' for global warming to see how much 'risk' they place in it being 'real' (and not the hoax the denialists claim it to be). i know that they'd be the first guys to 'up the ante' once they feel able but i also know that they do not want to loose customers/become broke through excess claims.

When we look at the areas blighted with flood staus (and uninsurable) the 'trend' there must appear quite clear?

I'm not worried though, i am of the opinion that AGW is a real threat and GCM's have poorly modelled the speed and impacts (as we see from the 'surprises in the Arctic?) and we are ever closer to the 'unmistakeable proof' of the changes (as if the A.A. driven Arctic Di pole freezing my nuts off isn't enough!!!) :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Hi Micheal!

I hear what you say and 'statistically I'd guess that your thinking is sound. It's just that ,over the past couple of years, I've been looking at the folk who have to foot the 'bill' for global warming to see how much 'risk' they place in it being 'real' (and not the hoax the denialists claim it to be). i know that they'd be the first guys to 'up the ante' once they feel able but i also know that they do not want to loose customers/become broke through excess claims.

When we look at the areas blighted with flood staus (and uninsurable) the 'trend' there must appear quite clear?

I'm not worried though, i am of the opinion that AGW is a real threat and GCM's have poorly modelled the speed and impacts (as we see from the 'surprises in the Arctic?) and we are ever closer to the 'unmistakeable proof' of the changes (as if the A.A. driven Arctic Di pole freezing my nuts off isn't enough!!!) :)

I wouldn't trust the insurance industry to accurately reflect the risk involved, it's a bottom covering exercise of the highest magnitude.

Recent example springs to mind.....my dog slipped and injured his leg in the snow £400 vet bill, insured with an excess of £75, claim made. New premium arrived this week, it's gone up and now will cost me an extra £250 per year with an excess of £150.

Do I conclude from this that there is now more likelihood of snow?

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Posted
  • Location: PO1 5RF
  • Location: PO1 5RF

To quote the authors of the Lloyds report :

"This report shows that climate trends can be hidden unless the data is analysed at an appropriate granularity."

They then go on to show how easily data may be plausibly obfuscated to provide a slant on the climate to their own organization's advantage.

Lloyds are kind enough to publish their Spreadsheet from which some of these statistics are derived here. (Sadly, they do not archive their entire or raw data.)

Of the "Extreme Rainfall" events analysed, 7/10 occurred within the 20-year period 1958 -1979, and the remaining 3/10 occurred in the 10 years between 1992 and 2003. Their "granular analysis" approach does not seem to take into account the random clumping in time such events seem to possess. (It is also not pointed out that all these events occur from June to September (isolated thunderstorms, perhaps?), yet much is made in the paper of the analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall statistics.)

The researchers could have made their case so much more convincing if they had chosen the period 1909 - 1957, with zero extreme rainfall events over 45mm, and contrasted that with the 48 years from 1958 - 2006 with ten extreme rainfall events! Infinity percent over 96 years is so much more convincing that just 900% over 92! The next 48 years may perhaps see Lloyds moving from their EC3 City address to somewhere less flood-prone, such as NW3, Hampstead? Not on the basis of this study.

All in all this pamphlet shows what Lloyds stockholders will want to hear, that more can (and will) be "justifiably" charged for premiums depending on the effects of severe weather, whatever the actual current trends show. This is exactly what may be expected from a financial institution with vested interests, but it is not a valid piece of scientific analysis.

Ain't statistics marvellous?

Day . Month . Year .. Amount (mm)

12 ... 7 ... 1908 ... 51.3 ..... (not within analysis period)

5 .... 9 ... 1958 ... 55.9 ..... (in 1915-1960 analysis data)

3 .... 9 ... 1965 ... 79.0 ..... (in 1961-2006 analysis data)

14 ... 9 ... 1968 ... 97.5 .......... "

15 ... 9 ... 1968 ... 47.0 .......... "

7 .... 8 ... 1970 ... 45.5 .......... "

20 ... 9 ... 1973 ... 48.8 .......... "

31 ... 7 ... 1978 ... 48.8 .......... "

9 .... 6 ... 1992 ... 78.5 .......... "

10 ... 8 ... 1994 ... 58.5 .......... "

2 .... 9 ... 2002 ... 49.0 .......... "

Edited by Timini Cricket
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At Climate-Debate.com you can read an ongoing interesting thread about UHI (Urban Heat Island) with both sides in the climate debate represented: http://www.climate-debate.com/forum/uah-reveals-urban-heat-d6-e10.php.

Frank Lansner is a very active Danish climate skeptic. Bo Vinther is a Danish climate scientist who is not afraid of arguing with the skeptics. I expect some interesting points in the discussion.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Hi Micheal!

I hear what you say and 'statistically I'd guess that your thinking is sound. It's just that ,over the past couple of years, I've been looking at the folk who have to foot the 'bill' for global warming to see how much 'risk' they place in it being 'real' (and not the hoax the denialists claim it to be). i know that they'd be the first guys to 'up the ante' once they feel able but i also know that they do not want to loose customers/become broke through excess claims.

When we look at the areas blighted with flood staus (and uninsurable) the 'trend' there must appear quite clear?

I'm not worried though, i am of the opinion that AGW is a real threat and GCM's have poorly modelled the speed and impacts (as we see from the 'surprises in the Arctic?) and we are ever closer to the 'unmistakeable proof' of the changes (as if the A.A. driven Arctic Di pole freezing my nuts off isn't enough!!!) :)

People build more on flood plains so flood claims will go up. Until we make more of these homes 'uninsurable' hence usually no mortgage that will continue.

Not sure what that has to do with global warming.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

People build more on flood plains so flood claims will go up. Until we make more of these homes 'uninsurable' hence usually no mortgage that will continue.

Not sure what that has to do with global warming.

Methinks that the weather stations used were there since at least 1915 and not on any 'new developed' flood plain?

AGW general theory looks for more 'extreme' weather events including drought and floods. Sure looks like an increase in 'flood events' (as measured by 'deluge' and not water on the ground) esp. 900% increase in such extreme events.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970–2008

J. I. Barredo

Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission – Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

Abstract. On 18 January 2007, windstorm Kyrill battered Europe with hurricane-force winds killing 47 people and causing 10 billion US$ in damage. Kyrill poses several questions: is Kyrill an isolated or exceptional case? Have there been events costing as much in the past? This paper attempts to put Kyrill into an historical context by examining large historical windstorm event losses in Europe for the period 1970–2008 across 29 European countries. It asks the question what economic losses would these historical events cause if they were to recur under 2008 societal conditions? Loss data were sourced from reinsurance firms and augmented with historical reports, peer-reviewed articles and other ancillary sources. Following the same conceptual approach outlined in previous studies, the data were then adjusted for changes in population, wealth, and inflation at the country level and for inter-country price differences using purchasing power parity. The analyses reveal no trend in the normalised windstorm losses and confirm increasing disaster losses are driven by societal factors and increasing exposure.

Here, PDF.

Re: statistics, if we took the average number of legs of people in the UK, then we'd end up with a preposterous proposition that most people in the UK have an above average number of legs, since very very few (if any) have three legs, but some people have less than two leading to an average of something like 1.9 legs per person with the majority of people walking around with two.

There's a strong caveat emptor, here: the domain of enquiry is at least as important as the arithmetic mean (which is, really, a special case of the weighted mean) which, by extension, dictates the type of average actually used. For the number of legs enquiry the mode is probably the one to use.

One last point is that the median and the mode are very robust in the presence of outliers; the 'average' often banded around is highly sensitive.

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Methinks that the weather stations used were there since at least 1915 and not on any 'new developed' flood plain?

Totally agree..

There's a good chance that some of them will have been on "old developed" flood plains...

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

A new paper has been released which aims to re-construct 20th century weather, more accurately than ever before. Many sources of data have been incorporated including ships logs.

Abstract:

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time-scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis.

The 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time-varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three-day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging.

It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century.

Full paper here:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.776/full

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Based on reconstructions of Arctic climate variability in the greenhouse world of the Late Cretaceous, Southampton scientists have concluded that man-made global warming probably would not greatly change the climatic influence associated with natural modes of inter-annual climate variability such as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Arctic Oscillation/ North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/ NAO).

http://noc.ac.uk/news/arctic-climate-variation-under-ancient-greenhouse-conditions

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I was of the opinion that there would still be 'warm and cold' but that the 'baseline' would be a lot higher? If my thinking is correct you would still see the warm and cold plumes in the eqatorial Pacific ,just that there would be more energy around?

EDIT: But if you used todays 'temps' across the regions it would look like a permanent El Nino even with the 'warm/cold' phases as ,by todays standards, it would all be super nino territory?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

I was of the opinion that there would still be 'warm and cold' but that the 'baseline' would be a lot higher? If my thinking is correct you would still see the warm and cold plumes in the eqatorial Pacific ,just that there would be more energy around?

EDIT: But if you used todays 'temps' across the regions it would look like a permanent El Nino even with the 'warm/cold' phases as ,by todays standards, it would all be super nino territory?

You are joking, aren't you?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/images/tpacv2.png

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

At the risk of sounding rude, you were saying earlier today in the Arctic thread that other folk were guilty of skewing information.....

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

You are joking, aren't you?

http://www.emc.ncep....ages/tpacv2.png

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

At the risk of sounding rude, you were saying earlier today in the Arctic thread that other folk were guilty of skewing information.....

You mis-understand J. If global temp's (and sst's) were all elevated by the 3c we seem likely to be running into then the 'temp' of the nina event would be the same as todays SST temps for a Nino?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

You mis-understand J. If global temp's (and sst's) were all elevated by the 3c we seem likely to be running into then the 'temp' of the nina event would be the same as todays SST temps for a Nino?

Sorry GW, when you said " today's temps" I thought you were inferring something completely different.

Wouldn't your above statement only hold true if oceans continually stored energy? We have no evidence that this is the case.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Sorry J' , I've a head full of snot and it's obviously interfering with my 'thinking bone'.....

If the planet is 'warming' and the best projection of that warming is another 2 or 3 degrees c then the planet must 'store/trap' that energy? So when average temps are all hiked by 2 to 3c then the ENSO zones will reflect this and so a Nina 'then' will have SST's more in keeping with a Nino' now?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://www.physorg.c...sts-carbon.html

If it not the oceans suddenly becoming producers instead of sinks it's Amazon droughts or aftermath of major 'canes like Katrina or drying of soils in drought regions and now the forrests of Alaska!

Either it's all 'biased' evidence looking at only one part of the system or we are really starting to see how 'positive feedbacks' can play such a major role in warming episodes?

Edited by jethro
See, there is a polite, non inflamatory way of wording things.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

While governments debate about potential policies that might curb the emission of greenhouse gases, new University of Washington research shows that the world is already committed to a warmer climate because of emissions that have occurred up to now.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-02/uow-igg021511.php

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

While governments debate about potential policies that might curb the emission of greenhouse gases, new University of Washington research shows that the world is already committed to a warmer climate because of emissions that have occurred up to now.

http://www.eurekaler...w-igg021511.php

I take it that is just the carbon up there already? I don't think we can stop these additions even if we stopped our emissions

http://www.colorado....dddd7f60b8.html

.

Edited by jethro
Anymore moralising and you'll be taking a half term vacation.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A new paper by George Mason University researchers shows that 'Climategate'—the unauthorized release in late 2009 of stolen e-mails between climate scientists in the U.S. and United Kingdom—undermined belief in global warming and possibly also trust in climate scientists among TV meteorologists in the United States, at least temporarily.

http://eagle.gmu.edu/newsroom/853/

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A new paper by George Mason University researchers shows that 'Climategate'—the unauthorized release in late 2009 of stolen e-mails between climate scientists in the U.S. and United Kingdom—undermined belief in global warming and possibly also trust in climate scientists among TV meteorologists in the United States, at least temporarily.

http://eagle.gmu.edu/newsroom/853/

Methinks that that was the whole purpose of the entire charade, WS?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Methinks that that was the whole purpose of the entire charade, WS?

Sadly they have performed very well for their pay masters but I think the end result will be the same as it was with the tobacco industry, it'll just impact more folk?

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