New Research

[knocker]

With differing information you just don't know what or who to believe nowadays!

http://www.iceagenow...ng_glaciers.htm

Well I don't have a problem with the USGS report. If we are talking world glaciers then I wouldn't look further than here.

http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/pdfs/5.pdf

The full report (someone posted this link in another thread the other day)

http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/

Or even.

http://www.wgms.ch/

[blitzen]

Well I don't have a problem with the USGS report. If we are talking world glaciers then I wouldn't look further than here.

http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/pdfs/5.pdf

The full report (someone posted this link in another thread the other day)

http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/

Or even.

http://www.wgms.ch/

Thanks for the liks WS. Very interesting.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Global evaporation rates have gone into decline recently.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19565-water-cycle-goes-bust-as-the-world-gets-warmer.html

They found that evapotranspiration rose steadily until 1998, as would be expected in a warming global climate. But the trend reversed in 1998, and the amount of moisture being cycled into the atmosphere began to drop.

Not too sure what to think of it. Odd how it ties in with the supposed levelling off of global temperatures since 1998, though it could just be coincidence!? Seen as the main feedback mechanism for the projected CO2 induced global temperature rises is warming through increased water vapour, if we see evaporation levels fall enough so that levels of water vapour in the atmosphere begin to level off, could we see much lower levels of warming than expected?

[knocker]

Extended solar minimum linked to changes in Sun’s conveyor belt

A new analysis of the unusually long solar cycle that ended in 2008 suggests that one reason for the long cycle could be a stretching of the Sun’s conveyor belt, a current of plasma that circulates between the Sun’s equator and its poles. The results should help scientists better understand the factors controlling the timing of solar cycles and could lead to better predictions.

http://www2.ucar.edu...s-conveyor-belt

Edited October 11, 2010 by weather ship

[sunny starry skies]

Global evaporation rates have gone into decline recently.

http://www.newscient...ets-warmer.html

They found that evapotranspiration rose steadily until 1998, as would be expected in a warming global climate. But the trend reversed in 1998, and the amount of moisture being cycled into the atmosphere began to drop.

Not too sure what to think of it. Odd how it ties in with the supposed levelling off of global temperatures since 1998, though it could just be coincidence!? Seen as the main feedback mechanism for the projected CO2 induced global temperature rises is warming through increased water vapour, if we see evaporation levels fall enough so that levels of water vapour in the atmosphere begin to level off, could we see much lower levels of warming than expected?

Looks like a coincidence. They seem to suggest a significant reason being that in some areas evapotranspiration slows down because there is no more water to evaporate once everything's dried out. Also, specific humidity continues to rise in neat agreement with temperature rise, which has of course continued through the past decade despite the 1998 anomalous year. Se the below post from Tamino at Open Mind, with data from the State of the Climate 2009 report:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/08/08/urban-wet-island/

[PersianPaladin]

I don't know if a link to this study has already been posted (It's a bit of a job going back through long threads when you are a newbie), or even come to that if this the right place for it but here it is. I must admit I haven't come across this before-along with many others by the sound of it.

Two Russian scientists, Victor Gorshkov and Anastassia Makarieva of the St. Petersburg Nuclear Physics, have published a revolutionary theory that turns modern meteorology on its head, positing that forests—and their capacity for condensation—are actually the main driver of winds rather than temperature. While this model has widespread implications for numerous sciences, none of them are larger than the importance of conserving forests, which are shown to be crucial to 'pumping' precipitation from one place to another. The theory explains, among other mysteries, why deforestation around coastal regions tends to lead to drying in the interior.

Although the theory has garnered a wide contrast of reactions—from dismissal to accolades—it has so far been mostly ignored by the greater scientific community since first published in a small journal in 2007. A new paper in Bioscience by Douglas Sheil and Daniel Murdiyarso attempts to remedy this by introducing (or re-introducing) the theory to scientists of all fields, many of whom have probably never heard of the theory despite its radical and widespread implications.

http://news.mongabay...narytheory.html

These 'scientists' obviously don't study oceanic wind-systems properly.

[knocker]

A change in the color of ocean waters could have a drastic effect on the prevalence of hurricanes, new research indicates.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100813121916.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

A change in the color of ocean waters could have a drastic effect on the prevalence of hurricanes, new research indicates.

http://www.scienceda...00813121916.htm

Shame we're seeding the oceans with our washed out fertilisers then?

[knocker]

I think AGW can counter balance that.

A century-long decline in tiny algae called phytoplankton could disrupt the global ocean food chain, including the human consumption of fish, according to a study released Wednesday.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/declining-algae-threatens-ocean-food-chain-study-2039287.html

[Gray-Wolf]

http://environment.y...owledge2010.pdf

No surprises here then, in fact you might ask "What's Up With That?"

EDIT: You'll find the test, page 45 onwards, very interesting

Edited October 17, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/press-releases/ipcc-wg1-ar5-authors.pdf

A heads up for the upcoming IPCC paper, list of sections and folk involved.

[knocker]

New space research published this week (Thursday 21 October) in the journal Nature, has settled decades of scientific debate. Researchers from the University of California (UCLA) and British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have found the final link between electrons trapped in space and the glow of light from the upper atmosphere known as the diffuse aurora. The research will help us understand ‘space weather’, with benefits for the satellite, power grid and aviation industries, and how space storms affect the Earth’s atmosphere from the top down.

http://www.antarctic...ase.php?id=1312

To save people the bother if they want to read the full paper.

ftp://ftp.nerc-bas.ac.uk/pub/photo/Nature-diffuse-aurora/documents/PDF%20Nature%20paper.pdf

Edited October 21, 2010 by weather ship

[jethro]

"While a number of records indicate a warming of coastal and shelf waters during the last 200 years, the twentieth century does not appear to be unusual when the proxy records spanning the last two millennia are examined."

Here's the rather glib explanation:

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2010/10/19/lessons-of-the-loch-sunart-monster/

Here's the reference:

http://hol.sagepub.com/content/16/7/1017.abstract

[knocker]

Ongoing rather than new research. I came across this by chance and found it fascinating. Then I would but I don't suppose anyone else will. The painting of the radiosonde release is great.

An historical archive of over 25 000 radiosonde observations from the former Soviet “North Pole†series of drifting ice stations has been compiled and made available to interested researchers. This archive was constructed through an international, collaborative project involving numerous United States and Russian scientists and keypunch operators.

https://pantherfile...._80_10_2019.pdf

Edited November 3, 2010 by weather ship

[jethro]

Not really new research but an entire down loadable book and lots more free info has got to be worth a look:

http://www.intechopen.com/books/show/title/climate-change-and-variability'>http://www.intechopen.com/books/show/title/climate-change-and-variability

http://www.intechopen.com/

[jethro]

Don't know if this has been posted before:

http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/10S1_LGray_SolarInfluencesCLimate.pdf

It discusses at some length the impact that a quieter Sun has upon our weather and climate.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/1/014006/pdf/erl9_1_014006.pdf

"Therefore, assuming that there is a causal

link between either of them with the mean global surface

temperature, the long term variation of the temperature must be

less than the amplitude of its cyclic variation of 0

.07 â—¦C. Hence

within our assumptions, the effect of varying solar activity,

either by direct solar irradiance or by varying cosmic ray rates,

must be less than 0.07 â—¦C since 1956 i.e. less than 14% of the

observed global warming"

Hmmmmm?

[jethro]

That's a couple of years old now and with research moving on a pace within the Solar circles (prompted in part by the unusual behaviour of the Sun recently) and the on-going research with CERN, I would expect more information on this subject in the not too distant future.

This paper looks only at the variation in TSI and the impact that the varying levels of Cosmic Rays have upon climate, this is only one small part that Solar variation plays in climate and certainly not the largest player. The paper I linked to above gives a greater explanation of the various impacts it has, not least the impact upon different weather regimes and patterns in various parts of the globe. The pattern of weather we are currently experiencing in this country is a classic example of lower Solar output shifting our weather pattern from the usual, expected SW regime.

Looking at the Little Ice Age in the NH, in particular the weather patterns for that time, it is clear that the drop in TSI and corresponding increase in cloud due to Cosmic Rays was nothing more than a bit part player, in a grand production of weather regime changes.

[knocker]

Seeing as solar irradiance is 'in' again, was it ever out, a paper by Dr. Judith Lean who has been researching the subject for years. Click on PDF after link.

Cycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate.

http://wires.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WiresArticle/articles.html?doi=10.1002%2Fwcc.18

Edited December 9, 2010 by weather ship

[knocker]

The attached diagram is from another paper by Judith Lean written in 1995 (you need your reading specs to see the grey dashed line). Reconstruction of solar irradiance from 1610. Implications for climate change. I know it's not exactly new research but none the less interesting for all that. http://www.geo.umass...ey/lean1995.pdf. The attached diagram was used by Kenneth R. Lang in his magnus opus, The Cambridge Encyclopedia of the Sun (Cambridge University Press).

Her comment in the conclusion of her more recent paper more or less sums it up for me but it leaves plenty of bandwagons to jump on.

Understanding of how, when, where, and why

climate responds to solar variability is incomplete.

Among the many remaining questions are what is the

long-term amplitude of irradiance changes, how does

the spectrum change in concert with the total, how

can we better quantify the relative roles of direct and

indirect processes, themechanisms of stratosphere and

troposphere coupling, and the amplitude and profile

of ozone changes, are responses to solar radiative

forcing altered by the presence of other forcings, such

as by elevated volcanic aerosols or concentrations

of greenhouse gases, what are the relative strengths,

timings and spatial distributions of dynamical and

radiative responses, how much larger are (equilibrium)

climate response than shorter-term (more transient)

responses?

As the only external climate forcing directly specified

independently of climate models, solar irradiance

variations promise a touchstone for advancing understanding

of climate change. When climate models can

reproduce the multiple, complex responses embodied

in the empirical evidence, confidence will increase in

their ability to simulate climate changes in response

to other radiative forcings, including by greenhouse

gases.

Edited December 10, 2010 by weather ship

[sunny starry skies]

Recent winter weather patterns make fascinating viewing, especially as one who loves a snowy and cold winter! There will likely be a grerat many people who will be desperate to equate a snowy winter on these shores to global cooling of some form, but the below papers are well worth bearing in mind:

Petoukhov and Semenov (2010): A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. JGR: http://www.agu.org/p...9JD013568.shtml

ScienceDaily version here: http://www.scienceda...01117114028.htm

Note the date - it was published before this year's recent cold spells began, and the initial paper was received in Nov 2009, before last year's cold spells began.

At present, I remain open-minded about whether the current anomalous patterns (including remarkable NAO values) are at least partly due to low solar activity, which has been flagged frequently as a possible cause (for example: Lockwood et al (2010): Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? http://www.nature.co...s.2010.184.html)

But I find it intriguing that we are having a series of remarkable cold winters while the rest of the world has high temperatures. Check out http://data.giss.nas...vs2005+1998.pdf (record high Nov temperature despite strong La Nina) and http://climateprogre...-solar-minimum/ - note that the only NH mid-high latitude region with anomalous cold is UK/Scandinavia! To me, you have to ask the question - are we seeing the first strong impact on our weather due to reduced Autumn sea ice? It is still clouded by the remarkable low solar activity, but if we see these kinds of patterns persisting through the coming solar max, then we may have to adapt to them as a consequence of AGW, namely hot globe, cold UK winters. Perhaps the Arctic can't hold in it's winter cold anymore. If I was to bet, I'd go for a combination of the two, strengthening the signal to produce extreme remarkable synoptics, but where we go from here with continuing losses in the Barents-Kara Seas and elsewhere, yet rising solar activity till 2014, I have no idea.

Other (reasonably) recent sea ice-winter climate papers, some published before even last year's winter:

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1–9.

Warm Arctic-cold continents... our future?

"In December 2009 (Fig. A7b) and February 2010 (Fig. A7c) we actually had a reversal of this climate pattern, with higher heights and pressures over the Arctic that eliminated the normal west-to-east jet stream winds. This allowed cold air from the Arctic to penetrate all the way into Europe, eastern China, and Washington DC. As a result, December 2009 and February 2010 exhibited extremes in both warm and cold temperatures with record-setting snow across lower latitudes. Northern Eurasia (north of 50° latitude to the Arctic coast) and North America (south of 55° latitude) were particularly cold (monthly anomalies of -2°C to -10°C). Arctic regions, on the other hand, had anomalies of +4°C to +12°C. This change in wind directions is called the Warm Arctic-Cold Continents climate pattern and has happened previously only three times before in the last 160 years." http://www.arctic.no...atmosphere.html

Would I be right in saying that this pattern is repeating/has repeated this year, making it twice in consecutive years? Whatever the cause, this Edinburgh resident knows the conditions are truly remarkable!

[VillagePlank]

Recent winter weather patterns make fascinating viewing, especially as one who loves a snowy and cold winter! There will likely be a grerat many people who will be desperate to equate a snowy winter on these shores to global cooling of some form, but the below papers are well worth bearing in mind

No need to refer to the journals; even simple reasoning is enough to see this as some form of deviation about an underlying trend (see my blog, here) I can't believe that even if this does turn out to be a record breaking Nov/Dec (and it looks likely, now) that it is more than, say, 5sd from the mean - which is the threshold for weeding out naff data.

Besides, there was always going to be the case when an exceptional run of meridional weather patterns dominates for a few years on the trot against the norm of zonality. That's easy to test, flip a coin 100 times, remove a third of, say, heads, at random, and do you still have a run of heads within the 66 data points left? It's certainly egg on the face of those who said it could never happen - and we've had some of those through this forum over the years! (not you, I might add)

One has to be very careful to avoid the Gambler's fallacy in that a small run of exceptional circumstances predict this that or the other - ie that the odds have matured so therefore something is likely.

The crux of the matter is how much data is enough to make a hypothesis. Even the apparent stalling of temperature rises over the last decade made it to a lower level of statistical significance (90%) with 2010 looking like confirming the rising trend with the higher normal significance test (95%)

What will be interesting is to see if anywhere else in the NH gets colder as the solar minimum drags on.

Edited December 11, 2010 by VillagePlank

[sunny starry skies]

No need to refer to the journals; even simple reasoning is enough to see this as some form of deviation about an underlying trend (see my blog, here) I can't believe that even if this does turn out to be a record breaking Nov/Dec (and it looks likely, now) that it is more than, say, 5sd from the mean - which is the threshold for weeding out naff data.

Besides, there was always going to be the case when an exceptional run of meridional weather patterns dominates for a few years on the trot against the norm of zonality. That's easy to test, flip a coin 100 times, remove a third of, say, heads, at random, and do you still have a run of heads within the 66 data points left? It's certainly egg on the face of those who said it could never happen - and we've had some of those through this forum over the years! (not you, I might add)

One has to be very careful to avoid the Gambler's fallacy in that a small run of exceptional circumstances predict this that or the other - ie that the odds have matured so therefore something is likely.

The crux of the matter is how much data is enough to make a hypothesis. Even the apparent stalling of temperature rises over the last decade made it to a lower level of statistical significance (90%) with 2010 looking like confirming the rising trend with the higher normal significance test (95%)

What will be interesting is to see if anywhere else in the NH gets colder as the solar minimum drags on.

I agree wholly with most of what you say there VP. I stated that it is an hypothesis that heat being released from exposed Arctic water in the autumn is affecting our weather patterns - it is not elevated to theory or any higher degree of scientific acceptance than 'hypothesis'. It is some way from that hypothesis being verified by the evidence, though as most of these papers were written before the last two winters, the evidence is growing. Still it is far too short a time for significance, while the alternative hypothesis I mentioned, that low solar activity leads to cooler winters at least in the UK/North Atlantic region, is much more established and supported by longer term data. The indicator for me would be if these conditions persist, either repeating over too many years for it even to be solar-related (few occasions even in the LIA had long unbroken streches of cold winter years), or if the conditions repeat even when solar activity rises to a peak. Additionally, if we see truly unprecedented synoptic patterns, especially if repeated, alarm bells may ring. For this particular hypothesis, I wouold suggest that the years 2012-2016 may be key, around the next solar maximum, which although not a strong one, should be strong enough to negate the solar-driven cold winter weather pattern and we may be able to determine the strength of this hypothesised new driver of Northern Hemisphere weather. As yet, I remain open-minded, as I cannot forget shivering through the coldest nights on record in December 1995, and that probably had a 'low solar' component to the blocking!

I read a 1999 paper discussing how we might see climate change expressed in the dominance of one or other weatehr pattern - ie the anthropogenic signal forces the pattern, rather than being altered by it, link below:

http://www.nature.co...s/398799a0.html

While not quite exactly relevant here, particularly as this is perhaps the emergence of an almost unprecedented pattern, I think the general comment would be that with a warming atmosphere, and modified parts of the land-ocean-atmosphere linkages such as reduced sea ice, we might expect to see unusual weather patterns emerging (or the increased frequency of particular patterns). The result is that any one region may see sharp changes in local climate by comparison to what is thought of as 'normal' rather than a difficult-to-spot gradual 0.17C/decade warming trend. You'd be hard-pressed to clearly identify the gradual trend, but you'll notice if there are events happening that have never happened before (2 feet of snow in Edinburgh)! Some regions see large warmings, others even coolings (seasonal or overall), yet others see large changes in prevailing wind direction or precipitation. But as you say, too early to call it a trend yet - I remember the long period of +ve NAO, but the next few years will provide interesting weather watching...

It will be very interesting to see if we get a full repeat of the Warm Arctic - Cold Continents pattern - at the moment, the November temperature anomaly plot shows the UK and Scandinavia alone as a patch of blue in a sea of red warm anomalies above ~45deg N. Places like China and the US that were affected last winter were dominantly above average in November's record global warmth.

Edit: Interesting blog post too - well worth a read!

Edited December 11, 2010 by sunny starry skies

[VillagePlank]

<Snip>

Thanks for the kind words.

The blog post is meant to be over-generic; Will reply about boundary conditions, probably in the morning.

Edited December 11, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101209141231.htm

Clouds seem to be at an optimum right now?