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jethro

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
20 hours ago, tablet said:

where is that happening then Knocker ?

19.thumb.png.f25decc7dd252badbefd2d8b263eccb7.png source - Ryan Moue

118.thumb.png.ff95da797ce6dc812c46053bb8380300.png

 

 

 

 

 

Can you (or anyone) supply a more up to date version of Dr Maue's charts please? To include this year.

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
15 hours ago, tablet said:

I'm thinking that they can't , after this time Devonian ,,,, but I can provide move evidence if you want

I'd just like to see an updated version of Dr Maue's ACE graph to include this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation

Quote

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed that there is a robust signal of the nearly periodic 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, which thereby raises the possibility of using the solar cycle to predict the circulation years in advance. Here we present evidence that contradicts this claim. First, we show the absence of a solar signal in the North Atlantic Oscillation in the instrumental record prior to the mid-1960s, and a marginally significant signal thereafter. Second, from our analysis of a global chemistry–climate model repeatedly forced with the sequence of solar irradiance since the mid-1960s, we suggest that the solar signal over this period might have been a chance occurrence due to internal variability, and hence does not imply enhanced predictability.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

To quote Amy Butler

Quote

Just to be clear. Global warming is happening. It is caused by man-made fossil fuel emissions. But our certainty about the thermodynamic, e.g., surface temperature, response is a lot higher than our certainty about the dynamic, e.g. jet stream, response.

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sj903980/Home_files/Perspective.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190122104611.htm

"We need to rethink everything we know about global warming

New calculations show scientists have grossly underestimated the effects of air pollution"

About time we got real on the impacts of global dimming ( IMHO).

When we look at the global impacts of single large eruptions and compare the impacts around the planet compared to our 'ongoing' human eruptions of sulphates and particulates there has always been an apparent 'underestimation' from my p.o.v.

The rapid uptick in particulate/sulphate emissions from China gave near instant global impact and their move toward 'clean air' has seen this impact both peak and now beginning to reduce with near instant response over the past 4 years.

If we do not see another nation take up the mega polluter title then we should expect Global temps to surge at a faster rate than the last surge over the 80's/90's for the coming period.

With us sailing so close to a number of tipping points we should expect to see at least one threshold crossed and possibly force a cascade of impacts.......maybe then we'll take AGW as serious as it is?

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

A paper from Atmospheric and Climate Sciences titled The “Ocean Stabilization Machine” May Represent a Primary Factor Underlying the Effect of “Global Warming on Climate Change” 

https://file.scirp.org/pdf/ACS_2019010914482656.pdf

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
1 hour ago, jonboy said:

A paper from Atmospheric and Climate Sciences titled The “Ocean Stabilization Machine” May Represent a Primary Factor Underlying the Effect of “Global Warming on Climate Change” 

https://file.scirp.org/pdf/ACS_2019010914482656.pdf

 

Two references to the risible 'Energy and Environment'. Enough said.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

(Mountains of spelling, punctuation and grammar mistakes aside) The biggest flaw in the paper is they claim that their statistical model fit global land surface temperatures almost perfectly, using data up to 2013. Then, based on their great statistical fit, they predict dramatic cooling, with temps back down to 90s levels by now... we all know how that's working out!
Here's their model and prediction. You can see the model goes for a large land surface temperature drop between 2010 and now (I added the straight black lines)

"In science,if a function fits all the observed data quite well,we can use it to predict it in future. According to the values of the best function from 2014 to 2146,we can see that the downward trend for the monthly anomaly of GLST had already begun"
1.thumb.png.5eee34396d90991e38185e071ad129ba.png 1b.jpg.9304ae28ebc4e3fd56546d319148ca1f.jpg
Figure 3. The anomaly of global land surface temperature (1880-2013) and the fitting function value from 1880 to 2146.

How have land surface temps gone between 2010 and now in reality?
mean_12.thumb.png.d748392f4e5951cc582e80dac2899bc8.png

Hmmmm.... you can see a hint of the drop from 2010 to 2012 that they were hoping would continue, but things went the opposite direction to their predictions after that.


It's amazing that they completely disproved their own method and still got it published. I guess it shows why impact factor still has some value (that journal has an IF of just 1), but it also shows if you make a model that completely ignore basic atmospheric physics, as many "sceptical" papers have done, then your predictions tend to go completely wrong!

mean_12.png

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Though I can't seem to find it again there is a paper out this week showing how we have drastically underestimated the warming of the oceans since the 1950's.....

Maybe the data going into jonboys paper was their problem?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

How far in advance can we predict changes in large‐scale flow leading to severe cold conditions over Europe?

Quote

Abstract

The potential of early warning for severe cold conditions is explored using the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project data archive. We explore the use of a two‐dimensional phase space based on the leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of mid‐tropospheric flow computed over the Euro‐Atlantic region in order to study the time evolution of flow patterns associated with high‐impact temperature anomalies. We find that the phase space is an effective tool for monitoring predictions of regime transitions at medium and extended ranges. We show that a number of S2S systems have some skill in the prediction of cold spells over Europe, even beyond the medium range. In particular, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts) model represents well the observed preferential transition paths. We reveal that the impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the predictive skill of large‐scale flow over Europe is asymmetric. The impact of the MJO on the Brier skill scores and reliability is significantly positive for predictions of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): beyond week one, forecasts with the MJO in their initial state are significantly more reliable than forecasts with no MJO in their initial conditions. In contrast, the predictive skill for positive NAO shows little sensitivity to the MJO.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3341

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Areas that have lost their ice cover in Arctic Canada are warmer now in summer on average than than they have been for at least 115,000 years.

Rapidly receding Arctic Canada glaciers revealing landscapes continuously ice-covered for more than 40,000 years

Quote

Abstract

Arctic temperatures are increasing faster than the Northern Hemisphere average due to strong positive feedbacks unique to polar regions. However, the degree to which recent Arctic warming is unprecedented remains debated. Ages of entombed plants in growth position preserved by now receding ice caps in Arctic Canada help to address this issue by placing recent conditions in a multi-millennial context. Here we show that pre-Holocene radiocarbon dates on plants collected at the margins of 30 ice caps in Arctic Canada suggest those locations were continuously ice covered for > 40 kyr, but are now ice-free. We use in situ 14C inventories in rocks from nine locations to explore the possibility of brief exposure during the warm early Holocene. Modeling the evolution of in situ 14C confirms that Holocene exposure is unlikely at all but one of the sites. Viewed in the context of temperature records from Greenland ice cores, our results suggest that summer warmth of the past century exceeds now any century in ~115,000 years.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08307-w

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Not NR, more a wrap up, but worth a read I feel

Q&A: How is Arctic warming linked to the ‘polar vortex’ and other extreme weather?

https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-is-arctic-warming-linked-to-polar-vortext-other-extreme-weather?utm_content=buffereec6d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0387-3

I've been saying this for years but we never seem to find that things will impact us less or act slower than initially thought? I am at the point now of dismissing most of the projections from the IPCC reports as they arrive they are so out of date/lacking in data!

Anyhow transfer of atmospheric heat will apparently increase much faster than ocean heat transfers..... maybe friday/sat/sunday will show us how that works for us here in the UK?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Earth may be 140 years away from reaching carbon levels not seen in 56 million years

Quote

WASHINGTON — Total human carbon dioxide emissions could match those of Earth’s last major greenhouse warming event in fewer than five generations, new research finds.

A new study finds humans are pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at a rate nine to 10 times higher than the greenhouse gas was emitted during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a global warming event that occurred roughly 56 million years ago.

The results suggest if carbon emissions continue to rise, the total amount of carbon dioxide injected into the atmosphere since humans started burning fossil fuels could equal the amount released during the PETM as soon as 2159.

https://news.agu.org/press-release/earth-may-be-140-years-away-from-reaching-carbon-levels-not-seen-in-56-million-years/

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Earth may be 140 years away from reaching carbon levels not seen in 56 million years

https://news.agu.org/press-release/earth-may-be-140-years-away-from-reaching-carbon-levels-not-seen-in-56-million-years/

I liked you're post but really it's  . Ignorance of what we're doing to this planet (often driven to doing) really is, and would be, bliss.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
2 hours ago, knocker said:

Were is the research to back this up?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Hi Knocks!

Never mind the references just look at the long list of record warm temps the last 10 years has thrown up around the basin!

I've given up on the number of times , under our 'washout summers', that the arctic basin was having a much nicer time of it than us down here!!!

If folk will accept that we will see a seasonal pack then maybe they can begin to appreciate the scale of change such a thing will drive?

The loss of the permafrost at the surface ( being driven ever deeper year on year) means that the land surfaces are now also able to react to warming once their protective snow cover melts out? The sudden leap in growth rates of the once 'dwarf' trees illustrates we;; the kind of seasons these trees are now becoming used to, sadly this only helps further warm the region across the year.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the specific report that the "locked in" Autumn/Winter warming claim originated from: https://www.amap.no/documents/download/2987/inline

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Why results from the next generation of climate models matter

Quote

The first results from a new generation of global climate models, which are valuable tools for understanding climate change, are now becoming available from climate research centres around the world.

These new climate models make maximum use of advances in technology – such as increased supercomputing power – and feature many improvements in their treatment of Earth’s climate system. These include better representation of the weather systems that bring us wind and rain, the clouds within those weather systems, and aerosols – the myriad of small particles in the atmosphere that come from natural sources and human activities.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-results-from-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-matter?utm_content=bufferdce1c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Interaction with the Midlatitude Flow, Downstream Impacts, and Implications for Predictability

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Abstract

The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones often has an important impact on the nature and predictability of the midlatitude flow. This review synthesizes the current understanding of the dynamical and physical processes that govern this impact and highlights the relationship of downstream development during ET to high-impact weather, with a focus on downstream regions. It updates a previous review from 2003 and identifies new and emerging challenges and future research needs. First, the mechanisms through which the transitioning cyclone impacts the midlatitude flow in its immediate vicinity are discussed. This “direct impact” manifests in the formation of a jet streak and the amplification of a ridge directly downstream of the cyclone. This initial flow modification triggers or amplifies a midlatitude Rossby wave packet, which disperses the impact of ET into downstream regions (downstream impact) and may contribute to the formation of high-impact weather. Details are provided concerning the impact of ET on forecast uncertainty in downstream regions and on the impact of observations on forecast skill. The sources and characteristics of the following key features and processes that may determine the manifestation of the impact of ET on the midlatitude flow are discussed: the upper-tropospheric divergent outflow, mainly associated with latent heat release in the troposphere below, and the phasing between the transitioning cyclone and the midlatitude wave pattern. Improving the representation of diabatic processes during ET in models and a climatological assessment of the ET’s impact on downstream high-impact weather are examples for future research directions.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0329.1   Open access

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