Convective Potential - June 13Th >>>>

[toggerob]

Got a nice CB building out to the East of me, a shame its heading NorthEast on the Convergence Vectors, but its looking nice on the illuminated sun side. Its currently building so a contender for anyone around the Leeds/Bradford areas in the next hour or so, being carried quite a pace by the wind but maintaining its composure nonetheless through Convection.

[Lewis]

Just been looking at the NMM charts.

Must say, tomorrow is looking very interesting for EA/Wash area Northwards through lincs and east yorkshire, they could be some pretty nice storms brewing.

[The PIT]

Well according to the radar there's some cells close to me. Unless they've got cloaking devices the radar is wrong.

[Guest]

It's dark to the SW now. These showers are nothing more than moderate rain at present though. Should make the air smell nice if they hit

[The PIT]

It's dark to the SW now. These showers are nothing more than moderate rain at present though. Should make the air smell nice if they hit

Odd spot of rain but skies clear to the east so the cloud must be directly above the house.

[Paul]

Yep, looks touch and go for England tomorrow with the NMM not overly keen to develop anything despite promising cape values. Time for this to change of course, but at the current stage it's Scotland & Ireland for some rumbles of thunder in amongst the showers, and the risk of an isolated storm or shower further south.

Rainfall - mostly over Scotland and Ireland

Cape - not bad

CINH - working against the CAPE across much of England and Wales

[Stuart]

right i hope to see a strom on sunday i hope

[Markh737]

What looked like an impressive storm to the east of Darlington 40 mins ago fizzled out after some rumbles and one inner cloud flash:wallbash:

The sky had gone pinky yellow and it was lined up to be a cracker, then it just disappeared, not a drop of rain! We had nothing earlier down here, it was quite dark looking north into Durham and beyond from about 5pm,the temperature in Darlington had risen to 25c by 16.00, more than I thought we would get, Tomorrow could be very interesting, its mega humid at the moment. Time for a beer or several and Glastonbury on the telly!

Cheers!

Mark H

[seabreeze86]

What looked like an impressive storm to the east of Darlington 40 mins ago fizzled out after some rumbles and one inner cloud flash:wallbash:

The sky had gone pinky yellow and it was lined up to be a cracker, then it just disappeared, not a drop of rain! We had nothing earlier down here, it was quite dark looking north into Durham and beyond from about 5pm,the temperature in Darlington had risen to 25c by 16.00, more than I thought we would get, Tomorrow could be very interesting, its mega humid at the moment. Time for a beer or several and Glastonbury on the telly!

Cheers!

Mark H

Impresive thunder and lightning here with heavy rain not the best storm ive ever seen but the best and only1 we have had here all this year,was not forecast at all as far as i no

[A.J]

That will soon change

I know what you mean Lewis, the models have been going up and down like a yo-yo the past 72 hours for storm potential, although the NMM has been by far more consistent than normal GFS

[Lewis]

I know what you mean Lewis, the models have been going up and down like a yo-yo the past 72 hours for storm potential, although the NMM has been by far more consistent than normal GFS

In all honesty, this week other than taking a quick glance on each GFS run, i have rarely examined the NMM model, until of course tonight.

NMM is at a much higher resolution and gives us a better "overview" of conditions especially for a local point of view, and of course for the non bias few "nationwide point of view" lol.

I'm afraid I shall be sticking my neck out again, i'm going for some storms to break out over EA/Camb areas, this pushing Northwards, to affect the Wash area and also parts of Eastern Lincs. With another line of showers developing a little further inland around the midlands, pushing NNE to affect more central areas of Lincs, and parts of N Lincs and later E Yorkshire around 8pm onwards. They may be some home grown ones, convective inhabilition looks pretty ok. Temps will be shooting up tomorrow, so I would not be amazed to see the CAP broke.

Of course sea breezes will be important tomorrow, although on a personal note being close to the coast, I think they will be in favour this time.

If you look at the few thunderstorms that have broken out, now pushing over NE England, the NMM was not showing this yesterday, infact it had them much further South.

All is not lost, game on.

I expect the 18z to be a lot wetter in terms of precipitation.

Regards

[Coast]

Time for a new thread!

netweather.tv/convective-potential-june-27th-onwards