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Nick F

Convective Discussion

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Please continue discussion of the potential for convection/storms over next few days.

Please post your storm reports:

Old thread:

Have issued a storm forecast for tomorrow:

Convective / Storm forecast - Issued 08/06/2010 22:00

Valid: 09/06/2010 0600 - 10/06/2010 0600

Headline: ...THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

During Wednesday, large upper trough over NE Atlantic extends south across Ireland and digs down across Iberia, creating an area of slow-moving low pressure over western Europe with centre over N Spain at 12z. An occlusion lies from Cork - Carlisle - Middlesborough at 12z with a brisk NE flow to the north and an unstable slack E or SE flow over much of England and Wales once again. A developing low over central France will drift north to lie over N France by 00z Thursday, with front bringing thundery rain to far SE England by 06z.

... WALES, SOUTHERN ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, LINCS, E ANGLIA ...

Residual overnight showers will become more widespread through Wednesday inland across England and Wales, surface heating should build a few 100 j/kg of CAPE across central and southern areas of England and Wales, though 850-500mb lapse rates look marginal for widespread thunderstorms, so the threat will be more isolated than Tuesday. Once again, wind convergence may provide a focus for any storm development. Slow moving heavy downpours are possible - leading to isolated localised flooding. Weak deep layer shear will mean severe weather is unlikely. An isolated weak tornado or funnels cannot be ruled out along the convergence zones.

Late Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday morning, there is a risk of heavy rain with isolated embedded t-storms moving in across the far SE of England then moving N across E Anglia Thursday morning.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

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Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-06-08 20:29:00

Valid: 2010-06-09 00:00:00 - 2010-06-09 23:59:00

Regions Affected

E/S/W Midlands and E/S/C Wales (majority of England and Wales south of Mersey-Humber are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

A complex area of Low pressure, "Doris", becomes centred over southern Britain on Wednesday, dominating the weather across the United Kingdom.

South of a quasi-stationary occlusion, located over northern England and Northern Ireland, numerous showers and local thunderstorms are expected to develop as a result of daytime heating and instability. Showers may form a NE-SW aligned line as part of a weak convergence zone during the afternoon hours, with the greatest threat of electrical activity most likely across the north Midlands southwestwards into east Wales.

Light winds will ensure that any showers are slow moving, in a predominately WSW direction. There is the potential for a weak convergence-type funnel possible. Showers will generally decrease in coverage during the evening hours, particularly after sunset.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-299/

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Not entirely convinced of anything today.

Meto have nothing, Estofex have nothing, ukasf have nothing.

Will have to see how it goes then :lazy:

Edit: Scrap that, Meto do have something.

But not for here :lazy:

Doh lol

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UKASF do have something out too. I dont have much confidence for today unfortunately. Just as good that im out all day. :lazy:

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Yeah todays not looking the best, its very dull.

you never know though it might just happen? whistling.gif

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ESTOFEX not showing anything for today but as Nick F has noted, they have been a bit hit and miss for us of late. Stuart has put up the UKASF forecast a few posts above and they are showing their map for today:

2e54549a5b2c111811f8467d7b0bf2a2.png

Here are some other indicators:

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_30.GIF

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_18_00Z.png

PGNE14_CL.gif

Rtavn1811.png

gfs_icape_eur18.png

gfs_layer_eur18.png

gfs_kili_eur18.png

gfs_spout_eur18.png

gfs_lapse2_eur18.png

gfs_srflow_eur18.png

and currently:

ASII_20100609_0615.png

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you've got to wonder why the met office have a warning out? presumably its for showers to become stuck over the midlands for most of the day, not storms? :lazy:

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you've got to wonder why the met office have a warning out? presumably its for showers to become stuck over the midlands for most of the day, not storms? :lazy:

Could be. We had a "shower" yesterday evening that was torrential and lasted for well over an hour, perhaps an hour and a quarter. No thunder, but it looked like it would blow any minute.

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Takes yer money you make yer choice. Another words no one has a clue today. Slow build up of showers over the Midlands right now moving slowly north west. I guess it's a case of what happens if the sun comes out.

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This morning is dull damp and rather humid. The sky is dark suggesting tall clouds and impending thunderstorms or at least that there will be some locally before long.

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Looking very Grey and Dull here today so im not to sure if anything convective will happen but its still earlier days,yesterday i had nothing whilst at work but did get treated to a FC which i wanted to film but dam phone froze on me,how ever i did capture this bout 15-30 mins later http://www.youtube.com/user/ozziestorm303 sorry quality not to good.

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Grey and dull here too yet heavy showers not too far east and NE.

It is the instability of the air that is a big factor, sunshine would help though.

Great FC capture there! Was that in Rugby?

EDIT: I see it was Crick near Rugby.

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TORRO has a forecast out today!smile.gif

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 08:00GMT on Wednesday 9th June 2010

Valid from/until: 0800 – 1900GMT on Wednesday 9th June 2010 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

S England

Midlands

E Anglia

Southern N England

Wales

THREATS

Brief, weak tornadoes; CG lightning; heavy rain; hail

SYNOPSIS

As yesterday, a moist boundary layer will reside across the area today. Diurnal heating and no capping will allow showers and a few thunderstorms to develop fairly quickly this morning, and continue into this afternoon. Weak shear will promote fairly disorganised storms, but localised convergence zones may allow heavy rainfall to develop in places. In addition, vorticity along these zones, along with low LCLs, mean that a few brief weak tornadoes are possible. It is tricky to pin down where the highest risk exists, but sea-breezes are expected today, and the north coast of SW England has a marked convergence zone indicated on hi-res models. In addition, parts of central and southern Wales have a number of marked convergence zones indicated. Elsewhere, the risk seems lower, but is still present. Deepest instability appears to be across SW England and Wales, into the N Mids, so the thunder risk seems highest here.

Forecaster: RPK.

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

Good Luck allsmile.gif

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Sun is allready burning through the cloud layer here, and its very humid again with a warm breeze. What people are forgetting, this time of year the sun is at its strongest and can easily burn off and residual overnight low cloud. So if your cludy at the minute the suns going to come out at some point unless your under a shower.

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A large towering cloud to my east , very dark underside ! :) . May turn thundery

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Radar showing cells that gave Anvil Crawler's FC just SE of Rugby near the M1:

post-2595-12760752462318_thumb.png

This was at 1650 as the 1655 was incomplete.

Screengrab from the excellent Version 5 Beta 4 version of the NW radar.

Heavy thundery type shower here now (west Wales).

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Looking very Grey and Dull here today so im not to sure if anything convective will happen but its still earlier days,yesterday i had nothing whilst at work but did get treated to a FC which i wanted to film but dam phone froze on me,how ever i did capture this bout 15-30 mins later http://www.youtube.c...r/ozziestorm303 sorry quality not to good.

shok.gif wow!! that was really good!! I was picturing a little ropey worm cloud when I read your post, but that was deffo a funnel cloud in my books! That looked like if it touched down, it would be quite healthy looking tornado. Nice shape to it! I take it you could see it rotating? Couldnt tell in the vid, but ace shot anyway!!

good.gif

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mad.gif Nottingham has this stupid large shower to the south of it thats just hangin out and not shifting. Its blocking my sun!!! If it doesnt want to develop into a storm then it should SHIFT- nonono.gif

I need the sun to come out to give me a chance with a storm or at least some rolling thunder for today, or even a nice chunkifer-CU to look at and give me hope laugh.gif

All morning has been like Im in Bolivia without the heat- really misty foggy and vertical rain with no wind. VERY humid and quite tropical feeling out, but without the oppressive heat.. (is that an oxymoron?)

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Quite a downpour with more very slow-moving stuff east of here.

3mm in 20 minutes so far.

Now this is what I call 'thundery rain' 7mm in 40 minutes.

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Just seen on sat 24 there are a cluster of towering clouds just to the north of me, Fingers crossed im just within the torro convective warning area.

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Hard to tell what's going on up above at the moment as there is so much low-level stuff hanging around in the way. The sun has been appearing more often though over the last 20 or so minute so let's hope it can punch some more holes in this cloud.

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post-5458-12760796511878_thumb.jpgNot sure if i should post this here but sorry if it in wrong place but i just found i had photographed the funnel on me phone l b4 videoing .

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HI, My first post herepardon.gif, yesterdays storms (tuesday 8th) were producing more funnel clouds, one was seen near kings lynn, and another in Norhamptonshire wich may of touched down, i saw a photo of the funnel on BBC1 look east,and it was almost down to the surfacegood.gif

hi.gif good funnel cloud pic youve taken Anvil crawler.

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Hey Sprites welcome to netweather!!

FINALLY the Bolivian rain has stopped and its t-r-y-i-n-g to brighten up here, but no sign of any clearing clouds yet, just a brighter gray.. C'mon sun!!!!

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more showers starting to form around the home counties now, albeit light. those showers in mid wales are the most exciting thing for now, moving steadily westwards.

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