Convective Outlook

[Kain]

Now looking very black to my west, looks like on NW radar whatever were going to get will be here in the next 15/20 mins.

Looks like heavy rain atm though

Edited June 6, 2010 by Kain

[Dorset_Weather]

Went out on a chase last night hoping to get my first lightning pic but made the mistake of heading SE and there wasn't much about.

Managed to get this shot though out over Eastbourne about 4am this morning, it was very rushed as it was distant anyway and moving away from me, don't think its a bad first attempt though

[Costa Del Fal]

Think you're in prime position, Blizzards. Cells moving due east and should make it to your location 1-2 hours from now. Assuming they hold their intensity of course.

I hope so. Plenty of time i know but i see no new cells are forming behind the current lot. I thought numerous showers might keep developing? There is plenty of time though.

NW Detector also picking up some sferics around Evesham way too now and a couple in Western wales...

[Essexgooner]

Went out on a chase last night hoping to get my first lightning pic but made the mistake of heading SE and there wasn't much about.

Managed to get this shot though out over Eastbourne about 4am this morning, it was very rushed as it was distant anyway and moving away from me, don't think its a bad first attempt though

Good picture mate

[Lynxus]

Went out on a chase last night hoping to get my first lightning pic but made the mistake of heading SE and there wasn't much about.

Managed to get this shot though out over Eastbourne about 4am this morning, it was very rushed as it was distant anyway and moving away from me, don't think its a bad first attempt though

Very good, I like the reflection on the sea.

Very good.

Edit: Shame theres a ugly bin in the way.

Edited June 6, 2010 by Lynxus

[Lewis]

I hope so. Plenty of time i know but i see no new cells are forming behind the current lot. I thought numerous showers might keep developing? There is plenty of time though.

showers are now moving east. im keep an eye on the stuff thats just coming out of wales, i think its them that will continue to intensify and then later this afternoon they will sit over yorkshire

[Thundery wintry showers]

Excellent photo!

I can see a cell sprouting up SW of Norwich on the radar, just south of the Peterborough cell. It's a dull muggy day so I'm guessing that high level instability is still the "order of the day".

[Wilxy]

Went out on a chase last night hoping to get my first lightning pic but made the mistake of heading SE and there wasn't much about.

Managed to get this shot though out over Eastbourne about 4am this morning, it was very rushed as it was distant anyway and moving away from me, don't think its a bad first attempt though

Thats a great first attempt well done

[Lewis]

Went out on a chase last night hoping to get my first lightning pic but made the mistake of heading SE and there wasn't much about.

Managed to get this shot though out over Eastbourne about 4am this morning, it was very rushed as it was distant anyway and moving away from me, don't think its a bad first attempt though

Very nice picture, may I ask what equipment you used, is it an expensive piece of kit? If i took a wild guess, you used a Cannon 400D.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Keeping an eye on heavy showers west of here- are steadily progressing ENE. Either they can maintain or build their intensity by the time they make it to here, or new cells form ahead of them. Either way, could get interesting for some parts of the region within the next couple of hours!

Actually, showers moving more due east.

Was hoping that they would drift a little further north, looking like we may miss them here

[TonyH]

Heavy storm or shower recently grown over north Herefordshire.

[Kain]

Nieghbour just said it is thundering, I never heard anything but still. Ive noticed there is suddenly a breeze that has picked up in front of this lot, hmm.

[Craigers]

showers are now moving east. im keep an eye on the stuff thats just coming out of wales, i think its them that will continue to intensify and then later this afternoon they will sit over yorkshire

exactly what ive been thinking mate! ties in with the NMM forecast and with the cape building over yorkshire things could get interesting!

[Lewis]

exactly what ive been thinking mate! ties in with the NMM forecast and with the cape building over yorkshire things could get interesting!

Fingers crossed ay mate. Only thing is, they have to make their way over the pennines lol.

[Costa Del Fal]

Quite a few sferics coming from that very intense cell to my WSW. If it keeps its intensity then boy are we in for it!

[Serendipity]

We've had some spots of rain, no thunder or anything though. Fingers crossed for some storms later.

[Dorset_Weather]

Cheers guys, damn that bloody bin lol. hopefully many more of them to come this summer

I used my old Canon 10D with a 28mm-105mm lens, remote and tripod.

Thanks again for the kind comments.

[staplehurst]

Excellent photo!

I can see a cell sprouting up SW of Norwich on the radar, just south of the Peterborough cell. It's a dull muggy day so I'm guessing that high level instability is still the "order of the day".

Looks like it will pass to the south of us sadly. We ideally need something to sprout up in between the two of them.

[Crimson_Sprite]

Nieghbour just said it is thundering, I never heard anything but still. Ive noticed there is suddenly a breeze that has picked up in front of this lot, hmm.

I cant imagine how that storm is producing, it really looks nasty on radar, surely there has got to be some sferics with that. I dont see any on the NW radar though Is the sky super-insane black?

[Nick L]

Looks like I will miss the heaviest of the stuff currently moving east.

[Kain]

I cant imagine how that storm is producing, it really looks nasty on radar, surely there has got to be some sferics with that. I dont see any on the NW radar though Is the sky super-insane black?

Yeah thats what I would have thought too, for whats its worth I aint heard anything, next door neighbour is sat outside in his wheelchair and told me so. Unless I hear it myself I generally don't believe it when it comes to storms lol.

It is pretty black out there, and the temp has dropped a few degrees, but I think its just going to be a sharp shower

[Ian Fergusson]

Phew... UKMO modelling for last night proved pretty close to reality, especially their call to keep the MCS just off the SE quadrant in the Channel. Let's see how the UKV high-res models pan-out for today, then... including a consistent signal for some deep convection to pop-up from late afternoon in parts of the S-SW Midlands / N Glos / N Wilts / Oxon and environs, in the convergent flow, ahead of the upper trough axis. Some of those look pretty potent in the modelling.... we shall see. Elsewhere, bar a few exceptions up in northern districts of England and up the coast from Lincs northwards, it all tends to quieten-down and dry up now and overnight.... if the models are to be believed!

After brief transient ridging to quieten everything down overnight and early tomorrow, we then look to the next upper trough arriving - it will dominate proceedings into this coming working week, offering distinctly unsettled and often thundery weather for many.

Things start turning decidedly wet from the SW with the arrival of an active, overrunning system, currently expected to be throwing an arc of showery rain across much of southern England by around 12z and then turning heavier and more persistent thereafter. However, the period of note is Tues / Wed especially. Some real potential here for hefty PPN totals / PPN rates through localised deep convection as well as directly via fronts themselves; influences also being imported up in a system from the south will tend to underpin the upper trough's influence in-situ (2007 springs to mind). For this forum especially, I'm sure some very interesting points of discussion lie ahead, as well as some very lively weather. Do stay tuned!

Ian

[Costa Del Fal]

Still no new cells behind the current lot???

Probably best enjoy whats on its way as maybe that could be it.

Hi Ian, we were very lucky to get a brief storm last night. A few flashes of very nice IC/CC Lightning and deep rumbles of thunder.

[picog]

Cells blowing up now just north-west of Ludlow- strong cores showing up on Radar so torrential rain and small-sized hail over there! Really is difficult to say whether these cells would affect here, assuming they maintained their intensity. At the moment it looks like they may move over the city, or perhaps further south of there.

Edit: Cell becoming pretty strong now. Is using up all the energy out of any surrounding developing cells.

We're about 6 miles south of Ludlow. Thunder rolling around towards Ludlow, and looking very grey and threatening. Still dry here, but it looks wet over Ludlow area.

[Lewis]

Phew... UKMO modelling for last night proved pretty close to reality, especially their call to keep the MCS just off the SE quadrant in the Channel. Let's see how the UKV high-res models pan-out for today, then... including a consistent signal for some deep convection to pop-up from late afternoon in parts of the S-SW Midlands / N Glos / N Wilts / Oxon and environs, in the convergent flow, ahead of the upper trough axis. Some of those look pretty potent in the modelling.... we shall see. Elsewhere, bar a few exceptions up in northern districts of England and up the coast from Lincs northwards, it all tends to quieten-down and dry up now and overnight.... if the models are to be believed!

After brief transient ridging to quieten everything down overnight and early tomorrow, we then look to the next upper trough arriving - it will dominate proceedings into this coming working week, offering distinctly unsettled and often thundery weather for many.

Things start turning decidedly wet from the SW with the arrival of an active, overrunning system, currently expected to be throwing an arc of showery rain across much of southern England by around 12z and then turning heavier and more persistent thereafter. However, the period of note is Tues / Wed especially. Some real potential here for hefty PPN totals / PPN rates through localised deep convection as well as directly via fronts themselves; influences also being imported up in a system from the south will tend to underpin the upper trough's influence in-situ (2007 springs to mind). For this forum especially, I'm sure some very interesting points of discussion lie ahead, as well as some very lively weather. Do stay tuned!

Ian

Hi Ian,

From what I can see the showers coming out of wales now over West Midlands are pushing across the penines to affect yorkshire and east yorkshire later this afternoon.

The high res NMM model shows this clearly;