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Nick F

Chase 2010 - Day 38 Discussion

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Chance of a tornado perhaps with supercells that develop in moist airmass over NEB/SD ahead of trough/dryline moving in from the west later today. Looking WRF/NAM, initiation looks to be across SW corner of Nebraska/NW corner of Kansas then storms moving/developing NEwards through central NEB/SD. I would target somewhere like Lexington on the I-80 in Nebraska.

00z WRF/NAM shows moderate SBCAPE up to around 2000-2500 j/kg across SE/central NEB by 00z and also SR Helicity values increasing,

post-1052-12755691710632_thumb.gifpost-1052-12755691805227_thumb.gif

...so better looking chances for a tornado - SPC have upped probs to 5% too on 1230z update:

post-1052-12755692098092_thumb.gifpost-1052-12755692013136_thumb.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0728 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2010

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID

ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN

AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE NATION TODAY WITH

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS NY/PA AND SOUTHWARD

ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS

RATHER STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...LEADING

TO EARLY AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT IS HARD TO

DISCERN UPSTREAM UPPER FEATURES THAT WILL AID IN THE INITIATION OF

CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG

THE FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM

CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND

MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF

DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER NV. AT ITS

CURRENT PACE...THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST

CO BY 04/00Z. STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL

FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THROUGH

THE DAY...YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE SURFACE

DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHWEST KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS AND VEERING/INCREASING LOW

LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT INDICATE A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE

OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO

POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

..HART/GRAMS.. 06/03/2010

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hi all our chase target for today is winner south dakota around 160 miles NNE of our current location so we will jog north past valentine and head east from antalope to winner

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just nearing the south dakota border under an hour away from our target area of winner SD

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got a storm firing 30 miles to our south so going to go south east to go have a look

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Good evening, dont want to p"%ss ya off but a cell in Nebraska has just been tornado warned.. about 80-90 mile to ya south...

199

WFUS53 KLBF 032247

TORLBF

NEC071-183-032345-

/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0032.100603T2247Z-100603T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

547 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

SOUTHERN WHEELER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 544 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT HARTSUFF STATE PARK...OR 9 MILES EAST

OF BURWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ERICSON...BARTLETT AND PIBEL LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA.

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Severe thunderstorm watch issued for parts of SE South Dakota and NE Nebraska.

post-5386-12756064780185_thumb.gif

618

WWUS20 KWNS 032258

SEL3

SPC WW 032258

NEZ000-SDZ000-040500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 253

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

600 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF

ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS

NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 250...WW 251...WW 252...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ON THE NOSE OF THE

STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IN CENTRAL NEB...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL

DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NWD INTO SD. THE CONVECTION WILL BE

FOCUSED BY THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND MIDLEVEL

TROUGH FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE

RULED OUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL

BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. BY EARLY TONIGHT...THERE WILL ALSO

BE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM

CLUSTERS.

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If they are still in the SD-NE border area, there's a more promising cell developing upstream that may lead to a chase, looking on the road map there is only one bridge across the Missouri River in that general area, should the cell head into southeast SD, and that's at Pickstown SD.

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Quick messgae to Paul..

Surely it doesnt get better than the second tour this year does it?

with awesome structure and tornado's :)

Surely not :lol: ...everytime you keep telling me it will get better...If the 4 year cycle is to believed then we havent seen anything yet :lol:

blown away with my pics and vids..

I will have sell my right kidney not to miss the 4 yr cycle

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Nice chase today along the Nebraska and South Dakota Border. Targeted Winner (SD) As chase target and storm fired about 30 Miles to our South East. Met up with Tony Gilbert and his team and we all headed South East to intercept. Along the way we decided to treat Tour 4 to a Core Punch, well a 27 Mile core punch to be precise. Took quite a few dents on the bonnet, emerged to a Wall Cloud when we broke free from the precip, saw the most Vortex2 Vehicles of the entire trip today. Cut off the chase to eat the Steak we are owed at Norfolk (Ne) and are in a good position for today. Today will make it 5/5 Chases with 4 Slights and 1 Moderate Risk.

Paul S & Team

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