Model Output Discussion

[rmc1987]

yep looking warm perhapes humid across all models now awsome stuff 28c by the end of the week could be on the cards.

humid 28c aswell.

Just a shame the warmer weather isn't staying for long. The GFS would suggest a cool down after the weekend. I don't think it'll quite reach 28c though.

[snowlover2009]

Just a shame the warmer weather isn't staying for long. The GFS would suggest a cool down after the weekend. I don't think it'll quite reach 28c though.

why do people rely on the temperatures so much. I have seen many times these situations where they show 23c widely across parts of the country and it ends up being 4 or 5 degrees warmer than what the charts say. the cool down has been knocked back again and has also been shortened as well as the wet weather. any really wet weather is for 4 or 5 days in FI. the high pressure starts to rebuild ove rmost of the uk by the weekend, this could be a trend and if i am correct there maybe an extended spell of weather. look, see how pressure is rising quite quickly near that trough to the west of the UK, wouldnt take much for high pressure to reestablish again before that low gets here and dips southeastwards:

[SP1986]

Above post by 'weather09' is good summary of what the models show.

Lots of warmth and humidity, although perhaps slightly cooler on western coasts where there could be some bands of rain/drizzle trying to push in from time to time.

FI is quite a fun one to look at if you live in Scotland. Middle finger at England comes to mind

[mushymanrob]

disappointed the countryfile forecast at dinner time showed the atlantic trough skirting across to our noth, whilst both the gfs and ecm had it stalling in the near atlantic, interesting though the latest ukmo suggests the ecm and gfs were closer to the mark, even though the latest gfs gets rather messy by next sunday. i wonder if tonight proper countryfile forecast will support the ukmo chart at lunchtime or update to the latest ukmo outlook. unfortunately ill not be watching!

[SP1986]

The UKMO and GFS verify pretty well, but now its the ECM that swings towards cooler and unsettled weather, in fact on the ECM the warmth never actually gets going across western areas, it looks fairly wet and largely below average temperatures here, with settled weather further east and consequently better temperatures.

It's a little concerning the ECM is showing this as it is the top performing model.

[SP1986]

The thing that will make the difference is dewpoints and humidity. Thusfar it has been fairly low so days have felt quite cool, but with a southerly wind flow and high humidity even the worst case scenario for the west; 14-16C should feel quite pleasant even in the rain.

[Costa Del Fal]

Not good to see GP in the Spring/Summer thread going for a cool and showery outlook soon enough for the Summer. Hopefully it wont be too bad or at least better than the last 3.

In the meantime, apart from Tuesday, a good week beckons with pleasantly warm temperatures though perhaps turning very warm with the risk of some storms by the end of the week.

Edited May 30, 2010 by Blizzards

[loopydreamer]

well.... im waiting in expectation here! models showing potential for storms weekend and/or into next week!

im moving to chatham kent on thursday from the west midlands and im hoping i will have a nice beefy storm to welcome me at the weekend!

[Costa Del Fal]

well.... im waiting in expectation here! models showing potential for storms weekend and/or into next week!

im moving to chatham kent on thursday from the west midlands and im hoping i will have a nice beefy storm to welcome me at the weekend!

If you do get a storm please share with it with us West Midlanders please! :lol:

Gfs 18z rolling out now. Pressure readily building from Wednesday onwards. GFS predicting 22c as the Max though i know it can undercook things at times so maybe a touch higher. So far little change on the run.

[summer blizzard]

Model output for the coming week certainly is interesting, cloud and drizzle for most on tuesday as the warm front moves in, folloed by a largely sunny and dry wednesday and thursday, however friday and saturday look humid and potentially thundery before a cold front brings a breakdown for most on sunday.

[Guest FireStorm]

well.... im waiting in expectation here! models showing potential for storms weekend and/or into next week!

im moving to chatham kent on thursday from the west midlands and im hoping i will have a nice beefy storm to welcome me at the weekend!

2 towns away from me Let's hope the models hold true and do bring the 1st thunderstorms to Medway for your arrival !!!!!

[SP1986]

The 18z is good for most areas of the UK possibility of thundery showers set off but the chance is fairly low.

I would say people in the west should make the most of the warmth on Wed-Fri as it looks like breaking down pretty quickly here and becoming much cooler and wetter, probably without a thundery breakdown. Elsewhere though it looks pretty good for a longer spell of dry warm weather lasting into the weekend - thereafter the FI period looks a bit 2007ish.

Good job FI is just that as they are probably the worst charts you could get in early summer. In anomalous terms probably as cool as the equivalent prolonged -10C (850's) in January

[Costa Del Fal]

The 18z is good for most areas of the UK possibility of thundery showers set off but the chance is fairly low.

I would say people in the west should make the most of the warmth on Wed-Fri as it looks like breaking down pretty quickly here and becoming much cooler and wetter, probably without a thundery breakdown. Elsewhere though it looks pretty good for a longer spell of dry warm weather lasting into the weekend - thereafter the FI period looks a bit 2007ish.

Good job FI is just that as they are probably the worst charts you could get in early summer. In anomalous terms probably as cool as the equivalent prolonged -10C (850's) in January

Doesnt look great in FI. There is very little proper High pressure across Europe in this run, many areas look rather unsettled so the outlook isnt appealing outside of the UK either!

Edited May 30, 2010 by Blizzards

[Wilxy]

Latest gfs doesnt really look that bad for the weekend now.

[Eugene]

Disappointingly that last nights runs downgraded the strength of the high to our northeast, it looks flabby and weak now quickly deterioating letting in weak fronts from the southwest, not sure where these thunderstorms are to come from to be honest, looks like a nondescript southwesterly for the weekend, warm yes but not producing any exciting convective weather before cooler atlantic fresher air and atlantic fronts move in next week.

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack4.gif

Edited May 30, 2010 by Eugene

[Cheese Rice]

Not sure I agree there re temperatures across western parts of UK. The 12z GFS run maintains warm temperatures across northern and western parts going into the weekend. The trend so far is for many places across the UK to experience warm temperatures from mid-week to the weekend, though the warmest temperatures will be experienced furthest south and east. Furthest north west of UK will perhaps experience cool conditions with much more cloud amounts and spells of light rain towards the latter half

I would say the warmest places are likley to be yorkshire, further south and east appears to be cooler with a potent breeze taking the edge of the temperatures. If it wasn't for the risk of cloud and sometimes rain in nw england, nw could easily be the hot spot.

Edited May 31, 2010 by 10123

[risk of sleet]

Possibly a storm around the 10th? A bit ominous ensemble control

Edit: Probably nothing when we get there.

Edited May 31, 2010 by risk of sleet

[mushymanrob]

The 18z is good for most areas of the UK possibility of thundery showers set off but the chance is fairly low.

I would say people in the west should make the most of the warmth on Wed-Fri as it looks like breaking down pretty quickly here and becoming much cooler and wetter, probably without a thundery breakdown. Elsewhere though it looks pretty good for a longer spell of dry warm weather lasting into the weekend - thereafter the FI period looks a bit 2007ish.

Good job FI is just that as they are probably the worst charts you could get in early summer. In anomalous terms probably as cool as the equivalent prolonged -10C (850's) in January

a good summery there, even this morning thats how the charts appear to me. fi is now looking unsettled with the jet apparently looking like taking up a southerly track ... time to write off summer then? (that was a joke btw...just in case...)

[Frosty.]

A largely disappointing GFS 00z run with low pressure bringing cool & showery conditions mixed with spells of rain from early FI onwards but at least during this week there will be a warming trend but alas it won't last as usual, tomorrow is looking rather cloudy with scattered outbreaks of rain pushing east across the uk but between wed/fri it should be warmer and brighter with sunny spells and temps into the low to mid 70's F, the fine spell will then probably be eroded during next weekend with low pressure moving in off the atlantic and the last vestiges of warmth perhaps lingering in the southeast until sunday, it's sad that we can already see the end of the warm spell before it even begins but it's also a bit funny as well.

[Paceyboy]

A largely disappointing GFS 00z run with low pressure bringing cool & showery conditions mixed with spells of rain from early FI onwards but at least during this week there will be a warming trend but alas it won't last as usual, tomorrow is looking rather cloudy with scattered outbreaks of rain pushing east across the uk but between wed/fri it should be warmer and brighter with sunny spells and temps into the low to mid 70's F, the fine spell will then probably be eroded during next weekend with low pressure moving in off the atlantic and the last vestiges of warmth perhaps lingering in the southeast until sunday, it's sad that we can already see the end of the warm spell before it even begins but it's also a bit funny as well.

That is only the 0z GFS op run and i emphasise the fact that both UKMO and ECM look much better on their 0z runs compared to a few days ago with regards to high pressure hanging on longer and even real heat on the ECM . UKMO the pick of the bunch though.

[snowfish]

A largely disappointing GFS 00z run with low pressure bringing cool & showery conditions mixed with spells of rain from early FI onwards but at least during this week there will be a warming trend but alas it won't last as usual, tomorrow is looking rather cloudy with scattered outbreaks of rain pushing east across the uk but between wed/fri it should be warmer and brighter with sunny spells and temps into the low to mid 70's F, the fine spell will then probably be eroded during next weekend with low pressure moving in off the atlantic and the last vestiges of warmth perhaps lingering in the southeast until sunday, it's sad that we can already see the end of the warm spell before it even begins but it's also a bit funny as well.

Frosty 039 - Indeed - British weather eh?! Still, at least we've got about four to five nice days to enjoy and the warm spell lasting through the weekend which will be very nice for all.....giggles...

[MP-R]

An awful pattern after this week, fortunately it is in FI but nevertheless. This is exactly the pattern I wanted to set up in March and April and get done by May and just as we want settled weather to be the case, this sort of pattern establishes itself. Instead, we wasted nice weather in April and May when it wasn't wanted.

Not all doom and gloom though as towards the very end of FI, higher pressure over the continent may try and make inroads just to the east of us - possibly a plume:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3721.png

Clutching at straws here. Best make the most of this week's sunshine.

[TEITS]

Rather surprised at some of the comments this morning. During this coming week we have a lovely spell of warm sunshine arriving with temps creeping upto the low/mid 20s. Now in F.I the models suggest it turning unsettled with LP but there is plenty of time for this to change. Lets use recent model output as an example because it was only a few days ago the UKMO suggested LP moving in at +144 and now between +72/+144 the UKMO suggests HP.

So my advice is enjoy this weeks lovely warm sunshine and only worry about F.I if the LP moves into the reliable timeframe. Even then this could change as we have seen with the model output for this coming weekend. My hunch is these LPs will be kept at bay and remember I did promise a lovely start to June many days ago, even when the model output suggested otherwise (remember Eugene constantly posting unsettled charts!).

[chrisharry007]

That is only the 0z GFS op run and i emphasise the fact that both UKMO and ECM look much better on their 0z runs compared to a few days ago with regards to high pressure hanging on longer and even real heat on the ECM . UKMO the pick of the bunch though.

After watching this forum for over a year and experiencing all the ups and downs of model watching I have decided to join.

I agree its only the 0z GFS op run and its one of the coldest members and is unlikely to be correct , still plenty of warmer members.

We will wait and see what 06z brings

[johnholmes]

very true TEITS

quite why we have negative posts about FI when after Tuesday, most of us, will have Wed-Sat with plenty of sunshine, warm, pleasantly cool nights (sorry Botty!) and then what a lot enjoy a thundery breakdown. Beyond next Sunday who knows, best to enjoy what seems likely this week and stop worrying it is only the weather after all. Maybe another case for NO data being available beyond about 7 days then we have nothing to get worked up about!