Sea Surface Temperatures

[damianslaw]

How do this values compare with averages for late Jan/early feb.

I'm guessing they are a little below the average, about 1 degree below? I read how during the winter of 62/63 the North Sea got down to about 2 degrees just off the Kent coast and similiar values were recorded in Feb 1947.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Next animation up to the 30th January.

[Richard Lake]

Updated 1st February 2011:

http://www.amigaos.net/SSTs.html

I'm dreaming of a, white, February. Just like the ones we used to know. :cray:

@ Meso

Feel free to explore the rest of the site. :D

Edited February 1, 2011 by djrikki

[Richard Lake]

Updated 3rd February 2011:

http://www.amigaos.net/SSTs.html

[Richard Lake]

Updated 7th February 2011:

http://www.amigaos.net/SSTs.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest SST animation

[mesocyclone]

Thanks for the updated animation.

Still looks abnormal around the Gulf Of Mexico to me. That whole area has not been the same since the oil disaster.

[Richard Lake]

Updated 9th February 2011:

http://www.amigaos.net/SSTs.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thanks for the updated animation.

Still looks abnormal around the Gulf Of Mexico to me. That whole area has not been the same since the oil disaster.

No worries!

I wouldn't read too much into it, from the equator north the Atlantic looks practically the same as this time last year.

[BigDogStudioX]

Amazing work ! @

BornFromTheVoid

[mesocyclone]

Thanks for last years image. It does indeed look very similar in the Atlantic.

[Richard Lake]

Updated 10th February 2011:

http://www.amigaos.net/SSTs.html

[Richard Lake]

Updated 11th February 2011:

http://www.amigaos.net/SSTs.html

[Richard Lake]

Updated 12th February 2011:

http://www.amigaos.net/SSTs.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Next animation...

Looks like a clear weakening of La Nina and the the -ve PDO since the new year.

[Richard Lake]

Updated 17th February 2011:

http://www.amigaos.net/SSTs.html

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-110220.gif

Lots to talk about on the global sea surface temperature anomoly front.

Indian Ocean..

The level of cold anomolies are quite striking and is likely to continue to persist for the next 12 months. This is because with the current westerly phase of the QBO, a lot of Saharan dust and generally dry air is going to inhibit moisture with an area of high pressure in the region. As the +QBO turns easterly over the summer/Autumn, we are likely to see more cold anomolies from the west based La Nina cool waters further.

It will be interesting to see the effect of the lack of monsoonal rainfall on the Atlantic Hurricane season with less waves leading Africa.

Pacific Ocean..

For the most part we still see the pattern which has been dominant all winter. A split Pacific Jet Stream with limited Tropical Convection (La Nina leads to cooler air which is dryer), and a dominant ridge south of Alaska. This is likely to remain the case for the next month or two with a likelyhood of warm air being pumped into the Arctic leading to bouts of -AO conditions as we enter April, most likely the final warming.

Could be quite a thermal gradiant once we see the ice melt in early summer if the tropical conditions persist.

Atlantic Ocean..

Currently we have a pretty clear signal for high pressure in the mid-Atlantic and low pressure into Scandinavia which would normally favour colder weather for the UK. In the tropical Atlantic, there is a more mixed story with the +QBO leading to warm anomolies and much more shower activity as the season progresses, which obviously favours high pressure at mid-lattitudes.

I would suggest that the coming hurricane season will see a lot of those short lived storms that develop in the western Carribean and head north east.

Conclusion..

Over the Pole - Likely to see a generally -AO pattern caused by a weak Pacific Jet Stream and strong Siberian High, however this will mean that whatever Polar Votrex remains is likely to be in the vicinity of Greenland, so the best the UK can hope for is the Vortex to back west over Canada, or move east towards Scandinavia.

Tropics - With a strong signal for weak Pacific convection, we are likely to see the tropical Atlantic recording +OLR anomolies with the responce being a build of pressure to the north east over Russia.

Mid-Lattitude - Strong signal for a mid-attitude high likely to develop over or to the east of the UK, though it may pull back westward at times.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Better late than never!

[summer blizzard]

BFTV, what are your thoughts on the current anomolies.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Dunno if I could really add any more to your own analysis there SB, apart from maybe seeing the signal for high pressure being centered more just to the west or southwest of the UK and Ireland rather than east.

Hopefully that cold anomaly developing on the Ecuador coast is part of a new pulse that will reinvigorate the waning La Nina.

Anywho, latest animation

[Midlands Ice Age]

I am no expert in this subject having only lurked on here for about 6months, but to me this chart is now showing the true signals of La Nina.

To start off with look at all the high anomolies at the start of the period and they still develop rapidly in the Northern Hemisphere during the early part of the run. Later on and particularly in the last couple of weeks or so all the high anomolies in the NH and most of the SH have disappeared...

.

This is shown by the temp scale logo at the bottom. Check thru the run as the cold anomaly drifts downwards starting at -6C (mainly in the equatorial pacific) to -10C at the end of the run

Also BFTV I also will be watching to see if a new leg of the La Nina is starting as you point out above.

The other overall purely visual impact I see is the increase of blue on the chart and the disappearance of the yellow and reds.

I will be very surprised if we do not see a continuance of the colder world wide temperaures after seeing these anomalies.

This is my first post in here so apologies to you all if I am teaching you to such eggs.

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest animation

[BornFromTheVoid]

Next one

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-110327.gif

Signal for the Azores High to be to the south west of the UK around mid April.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Quite an impressive reduction in positive anomalies around Greenland and the North Central Pacific.