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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The cold pool that was moving towards us has all but disappeared at this stage with the North Atlantic looking very warm. SST anomalies around Greenland looking especially high. La Nina is still rapidly developing, with areas 4C below average beginning to appear.

    post-6901-020924800 1280623573_thumb.gif

    While the anomoly has certainly weakened, it has continued its progress towards us, so my stance on a wetter than average September still stands for me. I would guess the reason for weakening is due to more energy going into the cold pool developing west of Spain, this has strengthened and will spread back towards the USA.

    Sea surface temperature anomolies around Greenland are indeed well above average, however this is consistent with a -AO/NAO signal so its not something to worry about as far as i am concerned, though i would not mind seeing a colder anomoly just north of the UK and Scandinavia.

    In regards to La Nina, it is indeed developing very strongly at the moment and it will be interesting to see how long it carries on for.

    Personally, the thing that stands out for me are just how well the anomolies in the Pacific look in regards to a weakened Jet Stream. Just look at that massive positive anomoly south of Alaska allied to warm anomolies spreading from Aisa, a classic -PDO/+PNA pattern, if the anomoly pattern is anything like this in a month or two then i would say that western Canada and the central USA states should be expecting a pretty severe late Autumn. In regards to conditions for the UK, it depends if the anomoly west of Spain does indeed back towards the USA, if we can have a line of cold anomolies in the Tropical Atlantic, then it looks game on for a cool Autumn.

    All in all, i am still happy to punt for a cooler and wetter than average September on the basis of these anomolies, in regards to the longer term, there is nothing to suggest that sea surface temperature anomolies are anything but onside.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-100815.gif

    The negative anomoly approaching the UK has dissapated, however the cold anomoly coming off Spain is moving westward towards the USA, however the placement of the anomolies is only serving to enhance the -NAO signal, so i would expect height rises over Greenland to continue well into September.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-100815.gif

    The negative anomoly approaching the UK has dissapated, however the cold anomoly coming off Spain is moving westward towards the USA, however the placement of the anomolies is only serving to enhance the -NAO signal, so i would expect height rises over Greenland to continue well into September.

    Nothings really changed since the last update aside from the cold anomoly traveling further west, this will only be enhanced by the Tropical Storms dragging cooler water to the surface.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-100815.gif

    As you can see, La Nina continues to dominate along with a strong -PDO signal, this combined with a signal for an Atlantic High and the cold pool spreading west to the USA indicates a Jet stream on a NW/SE trajectory.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    There have been some changes to the SST anomalies over the last few weeks.

    The Western Pacific has cooled quite a lot and cold anomalies are growing across the region. It also seems the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is getting into a negative phase, the most negative in at least 5 years.

    The southern Atlantic's cold anomaly is growing and spreading, and, similar to around this time last year, a very deep negative anomaly is growing just off the southern tip of Newfoundland.

    Greenland is still looking very warm, though not quite as much as recent weeks.

    Meanwhile, the UK and Ireland look pretty much average still...

    post-6901-031571600 1286052592_thumb.gif

    This time last year, anomalies much less varied.

    http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-091004.gif

    Edit: didn't mean to say "Eastern" Pacific!

    Edited by NaDamantaSam
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    There have been some changes to the SST anomalies over the last few weeks.

    The Eastern Pacific has cooled quite a lot and cold anomalies are growing across the region. It also seems the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is getting into a negative phase, the most negative in at least 5 years.

    The southern Atlantic's cold anomaly is growing and spreading, and, similar to around this time last year, a very deep negative anomaly is growing just off the southern tip of Newfoundland.

    Greenland is still looking very warm, though not quite as much as recent weeks.

    Meanwhile, the UK and Ireland look pretty much average still...

    post-6901-031571600 1286052592_thumb.gif

    This time last year, anomalies much less varied.

    http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-091004.gif

    Certainly some big developments..

    Pacific - Looking at the west Pacific, we see a cold/warm/cold tripole (bottom up) which bodes very well with a +QBO for a weak and amplified Jet Stream once ice development occurs over the Pacific side of the Arctic, with a +WPO (higher than average pressure over the western Pacific), this also indicates a southerly tracking Jet Stream exiting Aisa promoting as strong Siberian High. In the eastern Pacific we are seeing a classic La Nina signal developing (like last year we should see a cold anomoly south of Alaska which in combination with La Nina should lead to troughing over the western USA, but much further south than normal (expect a bumper season in the Rockies). In conclusion the Pacific is favourable for cold outbreaks once ice development occurs.

    Atlantic - Looking at the Atlantic i am very pleased, we have cold anomolies developing across the Tropics with a very cold anomoly off Newfoundland and warm anomolies over Western Greenland, this indicates a southerly tracking Jet Stream exiting the USA with a -NAO signal in place, the fly in the ointment being that we have warm anomolies east of Greenland where we would want cold anomolies, this could indicate that the core of high pressure will be close to us as opposed to west of us.

    Looking ahead to winter, we want the Pacific to carry on the way it is going and the Atlantic tropics to cool further with the cold anomoly off Newfoundland to develop/get even colder, though we do need to lose the warm anomolies east of Greenland otherwise we could end up with high pressure bang on top of us which in winter means cold, dry but very dull.

    There tends to be a lag of around 20 days, and right now we do have a fairly strong thermal gradiant over the Pacific, so i would say that we will see a high over/east of us with low pressure probably close enougth to bring large amounts of rain for the west of the UK.

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-101017.gif

    Certainly some interesting developments since the beggining of the month..

    Pacific - Looking at the west Pacific, we see a +WPO still present which bodes well for a weak Pacific Jet Stream until at least December though once ice development occurs over the Pacific side of the Arctic, there is a chance that the thermal gradiant could strengthen, leading to a neutral/negative WPO during spring, consistent with La Nina conditions (+WPO - higher than average pressure over the western Pacific), until December this also indicates a southerly tracking Jet Stream exiting Aisa promoting as strong Siberian High. In the eastern Pacific we are seeing a classic La Nina/-PDO/-EPO signal developing (like last year we should see a cold anomoly south of Alaska which in combination with La Nina should lead to troughing over the western USA, but much further south than normal (expect a bumper season in the Rockies). In conclusion the Pacific will be favourable once -AO conditions occur because the combination of an extremely -EPO added to La Nina and a -PDO will strongly supress the Jet Stream during -AO periods.

    Atlantic - Looking at the Atlantic i am very pleased, we have cold anomolies developing across the Tropics with a very cold anomoly off Newfoundland and warm anomolies over Western Greenland, this indicates a southerly tracking Jet Stream exiting the USA with a -NAO signal in place, the fly in the ointment being that we have warm anomolies east of Greenland where we would want cold anomolies, this could indicate that the core of high pressure will be close to us as opposed to west of us, though we also have cold anomolies developing to the east and south of us (Mediternaian). In conclusion, combined with the +AMO, there is a strong signal for a supressed Jet Stream, though perhaps with the block too far east (over as opposed to west of us).

    Looking ahead to winter, we want the western Pacific to cool somewhat and the eastern Pacific to carry on the way it is going and the Atlantic tropics to cool further with the cold anomoly off Newfoundland to develop/get even colder, though we do need to lose the warm anomolies east of Greenland otherwise we could end up with high pressure bang on top of us which in winter means cold, dry but potentially very dull.

    There tends to be a lag of around 20 days, and right now we do have a fairly strong thermal gradiant over the Pacific, so i would say that we will see a high over/east of us with low pressure probably close enougth to bring large amounts of rain for the west of the UK.

    That was my prediction, however there was much less strength in the Jet Stream and as a result, we ended up with a northerly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-101107.gif

    Yet more developments..

    Starting in the Pacific, with the spread of ice towards Siberia and Canada, cool anomolies have developed over the north Pacific while the very negative East Pacific Ossilation signiture has remained, this is charecteristic of a very negative Pacific Decadel Ossilation and is likely to have two effects on the Pacific Jet Stream which are that it will amplify the Jet Stream and also mean that the Jet Stream enters North America much further south than is charactoristic of La Nina years. The effect of La Nina, the -PDO and -EPO will ensure that we do see periods of +PNA, not common in La Nina years.

    In the Atlantic, while we have seen little change in the near neutral anomolies off the eastern USA and Tropical Atlantic, we have seen two positive factors develop, which is that the warm anomolies have become less warm off southern Greenland, and also that the north eastern Atlantic between Scandinavia and Greenland is now showing negative anomolies which is a much more positive signal for a -NAO. In conclusion, while we do need cooler anomolies in the tropical, eastern and western Atlantic, we are seeing a progression towards a more -NAO signiture.

    Looking ahead, we want the Pacific to stay as it is, however we need to see the Atlantic cool in general, especially the extreme eastern and western Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire

    November 26th, this will be a looped gif over time.

    Wasn't happy with the cropping so here we are at frame 1. I have created an AppleScript if anyone is interested, it will download the SST image direct from NW and crop the image automatically saving it on your desktop. It would be also cool if it built them into a GIF for me as well, might work on that over the weekend see if its possible. But for now I will have to keep using www.makeagif.com - which sadly only supports upto 20 frames (days). :(

    Mac users can download the applescript here. Simply double-click to open it in the AppleScript Editor, then play around to your hearts content.

    http://www.amigaos.net/sst.gif

    Posted Image

    Edited by djrikki
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    Posted
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire

    I was wondering if there is an up to date indication of sea temperatures currentl an say 2 weeks ago??. Do the models provide such a thing??

    Please refer to: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=seatemps;sess=

    I have only looked at the SSTs around here in Lincolnshire that affect me the most, but in general the SSTs in the North Sea haven't really dropped much at all tbh, the spread has shifted slightly. There is a noticeable drop in temperature (in terms of shading, which probably represents a meague 1-1.5c temp change) having appeared from the North Yorkshire coast has far as Skegness. The southern extent of the 7.5 line has encroached further into the centre of the north sea and is beginning to edge toward the previous said shaded area. The baltic sea is also looking decidedly chilly and has dropped quite significantly in the last week, but has not frozen over yet. The southern area of the north sea, effectively Lowestoft and into the English Channel has shown a bigger drop in temperature with the cold spread further west passing Normandy on the french coastline.

    Looking at the models I can see these dropping further as the seasons change, but no sudden drop. Certainly better than this time last year Biggin, and well on the way to where they ended up end of last winter.

    In summary, positive downward trend of SSTs in the last two weeks, but no 'epic' change. I suspect that by the end of the winter SSTs will be significantly lower than those of last year. From experience watching those SSTs over the last 3-4 years I'll be keeping an eye out on the elusive 6c line - I've NOT yet seen it 'leave' and spread across the North sea from the Scandinavian coastline to spread into central areas of the North sea.

    Edited by djrikki
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Here's the anomaly change from the last month

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    And this time last year, roughly...

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent

    2 Great replies guys thankyou very much I shall have a look in more detail, later today, just got in from work.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.

    Does anyone have the SST's from January/February 2010? Would be interesting to see how low they managed to get off the East coast, they look very low for this time of year off the Lincolnshire coast at the moment, down to around 8c!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire

    Hi Andy_leics, just quickly scanned by HD, here are images for the period 10-17 January 2010 its all I have.

    Posted Image

    Seems I was mistaken about the 'elusive 6C line' it got much colder last year than I remember.

    Edited by djrikki
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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.

    Thanks Rikki, that is amazing, I wonder if we can get as low as those SST's this Winter and possibly go even lower (very unlikely I know).

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    Posted Image

    thts a hugely impressive cold anomaly right across the eastern pacific north to south
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I think we have a very good shot this winer of getting the Baltic sea to freeze if we can keep bringing down regular northerlies into central Europe...indeed could well see some of the Baltic Sea freezing by the start of our next cold spell...

    As for our neck of the woods, we are well in advance of where we were this time last year so no reason why we can't get down to 5C by late December like we did last winter, esp if we can keep getting reloads.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I am still a little nervous of the warm anomoly near the Azores and western Greenland, however the Pacific looks stunning with a southerly tracking west Pacific Jet Stream and a very negative east Pacific Occilation effectively killing the strength of the Jet Stream, making blocking over Greenland very likely around the new year, pacific polar anomolies also indicate a negative Arctic Occilation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Grimsby N.E. Lincolnshire 5m asl
  • Location: Grimsby N.E. Lincolnshire 5m asl

    Hi

    I've been keeping my eye on the North Sea surface temperatures for the last week now on the BOSS4GMES site(http://project.ncof.co.uk/B4G/indicator.php?indicator=sst ) and up until the 6th of December there appeared to be cooling of the North Sea then the temperatures have shot up.

    Posted Image

    What could be causing the temperatures to rise so rapidly?

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Hi

    I've been keeping my eye on the North Sea surface temperatures for the last week now on the BOSS4GMES site(http://project.ncof.co.uk/B4G/indicator.php?indicator=sst ) and up until the 6th of December there appeared to be cooling of the North Sea then the temperatures have shot up.

    Posted Image

    What could be causing the temperatures to rise so rapidly?

    I don't think the temps have jumped, looks to me like the scale just changes for some reason...

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    Posted
  • Location: Grimsby N.E. Lincolnshire 5m asl
  • Location: Grimsby N.E. Lincolnshire 5m asl

    I don't think the temps have jumped, looks to me like the scale just changes for some reason...

    Oh yeah, so it does somehow I'd missed that :doh:

    I must be going blind or daft, possibly both :)

    Edited by Spawney
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Oh yeah, so it does somehow I'd missed that :doh:

    I must be going blind or daft, possibly both :)

    Ah I wouldn't worry, it's a bit weird that the scale would be changed like that!

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