Sea Surface Temperatures

[summer blizzard]

Impressive horse shoe in the Pacific for the -PDO, neutral looking ENSO, impressive Atlantic tripole for the -NAO and warm tropical Atlantic waters which could bode well for the hurricane season.

[summer blizzard]

Not to toot my own horn but i did suggest that we'd move towards a warm-neutral/weak El Nino signature as Spring progressed and if things keep up i will be correct.

The Atlantic is where we should look though, coming towards the hurricane season (only 2 months or so) those waters are very warm.

[summer blizzard]

I noticed SB on CFSVS2 that they even have predictions of la Nina, that will be scary particularly for the later part of the summer. That with the PDO being borderline negative to neutral will give ramifications for sure.

Most models still go for warm-neutral conditions, at this range i wouldn't put faith in any but i don't see negative conditions coming back until late Autumn/winter if they do.

[summer blizzard]

Most models going for near neutral recently with the CFS trending towards neutral-negative.

I however am going to be a bull and suggest that neutral-positive is what we will see in the coming months.

[summer blizzard]

CFS are a big outlier then, to be honest SB the CFS aren't very good at predicting ENSO events. Last year the jamstec iod model were closer to the mark with the ENSO forecast.

It could still be correct however my forecast is based on the fact that last years borderline event was never really killed off under the surface and with the +QBO and the time of year i think we'll be trending upward through spring and summer.

Of course i could be wrong.

[summer blizzard]

 

Looks like i'm a busted flush, welcome back La Nina.

[sundog]

Video by Gavin Partridge. Early NAO forecast for Winter 2013/14 based on the sea surface temps for May which suggest a negative NAO is more likly then a positive one.

Obviously this does not mean there will definatley be a negative NAO but SST'S in May have often given a hint of what the NAO will be like the following winter.

[summer blizzard]

Not much movement on the La Nina/El Nino front but one bad omen is that we are the 8th latest date for a West Pacific Typhoon to form which is typical of a La Nina pattern so perhaps an indicator of which way things may go.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Upper ocean heat content has increase in the central and eastern tropical Pacific this month, whilst remaining quite strong in the west. That should prevent the development of a full La Nina this Summer/Autumn.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

[summer blizzard]

Interesting setup.

 

Pacific is still mixed but i suspect that the closer we get to winter the more we see the -PDO/-MEI development if things stay similar.

 

Atlantic looks pretty horrid. Cooler tropical Atlantic temperatures may end up derailing the hurricane season but there's also an enhanced thermal gradiant with the +NAO tripole developing which could be interesting come Autumn.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interesting setup.

 

Pacific is still mixed but i suspect that the closer we get to winter the more we see the -PDO/-MEI development if things stay similar.

 

Atlantic looks pretty horrid. Cooler tropical Atlantic temperatures may end up derailing the hurricane season but there's also an enhanced thermal gradiant with the +NAO tripole developing which could be interesting come Autumn.

 

I'd have to disagree with your -ve MEI prediction SB. The upper ocean heat content has continued to grow over the last few weeks and is approaching similar levels seen last summer.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

I think we'll see SSTs moving towards the +ve side of neutral into the Autumn, and the MEI should begin turning +ve too.

[summer blizzard]

I'd have to disagree with your -ve MEI prediction SB. The upper ocean heat content has continued to grow over the last few weeks and is approaching similar levels seen last summer.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

I think we'll see SSTs moving towards the +ve side of neutral into the Autumn, and the MEI should begin turning +ve too.

I,m not so sure. The observed pattern for the last year or so has been that warm anomolies have persisted in the west but only ever making it to the surface and only during strong MJO events. Now that GLAAM has gone negative after a protracted positive spell and the PDO currently looks to lend itself to a negative phase once the warm anomolies near the Bearing are removed after refreeze I suspect that combination will prevent much surface emergence and apply negative pressure. As such I suspect that we will be looking at a neutral to weak la Nina.

[summer blizzard]

[J10]

Interesting to see how warm the sea temps are around the UK, who would have thought that was possible in May.

[johnholmes]

the latest NOAA prediction for ENSO is in the link below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[summer blizzard]

An extract from a post elsewhere explaining why the hurricane season has been subdued but also why the Azores High has been displaced further north.

 

..

 

 

image shows us how SST Anomalies have been so far this season. The tropical Atlantic has been above average, but the region from 30-50N between 40-15W has been much colder than average (where we want it warm) and the region off the east coast has been much warmer than average (where we want it cold).

 

So there you have it, the subtropical SST profile is completely out of wack. Looking at 500mb height anomalies, this has pushed the subtropical ridge further north than normal (broadening Hadley cell) and also brought anomalously high pressure from 30-50N.

 

[johnholmes]

An interesting couple of charts

The 500mb height anomaly sits over the SST +ve anomaly off the states but also sits over a -ve SST off Iberia?

[feb1991blizzard]

Interesting to see how warm the sea temps are around the UK, who would have thought that was possible in May.

 

I actually hope they stay warm into early winter and then we get pool of -15 uppers with big SLP gradient move over warm SSTs, light the blue touch paper and stand well back!, those convective easterlies in Feb or March would have been all time greats if we would have had higher sea temps.

Edited September 5, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Lettucing Gutted]

An interesting couple of charts

The 500mb height anomaly sits over the SST +ve anomaly off the states but also sits over a -ve SST off Iberia?

That positive 500mb height anomaly must be baroclinically driven with warm air advection in the west and cold air advection in the east instead of equivalent barotropic.

 

I actually hope they stay warm into early winter and then we get pool of -15 uppers with big SLP gradient move over warm SSTs, light the blue touch paper and stand well back!, those convective easterlies in Feb or March would have been all time greats if we would have had higher sea temps.

The problem is that while the atmosphere will be very unstable the warm ssts will also increase marginality and pimp up warm sectors in any cold airmass.  IMO its better to have a cool sea and very cold sub -15C air moving over.

Edited September 6, 2013 by Craig Evans

[feb1991blizzard]

That positive 500mb height anomaly must be baroclinically driven with warm air advection in the west and cold air advection in the east instead of equivalent barotropic.

 

The problem is that while the atmosphere will be very unstable the warm ssts will also increase marginality and pimp up warm sectors in any cold airmass.  IMO its better to have a cool sea and very cold sub -15C air moving over.

 

Whilst what you say has validity I would take my chances after convective potency was negated somewhat by cold SSTs earlier this year despite ridiculously below average 850mb temps.

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly despite the warm sub-surface temperatures the MEI has continued to decrease, now -0.6 in August and the 14th lowest August value.

[ZONE 51]

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/

 

Latest analysis see link below image (at the above link), that takes you to a high resolution image and there you can zoom in closely to areas. 

 

Have zoomed an area of north Atlantic on the high res:

 

(Image 4th Oct 2013)

 

The sea surface temperature anomaly  5th Oct 2013:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur

 

Comparing this image to last years around the same time where I circled (last year) the formation of a line cooler waters in the east Pacific, the image below is 8th Oct 2012, La Nina.

 

You may like to view the sea surface currents, image below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_current - Read more

Edited October 6, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest CFS forecast for the Nino 3.4 region... quite interesting!

 

[UV-RAY]

Latest CFS forecast for the Nino 3.4 region... quite interesting!

 

Could be looking at a possible nino event next year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Could be looking at a possible nino event next year.

 

Seems possible. If it did come off, depending on how quickly it engaged with the atmosphere, we could well feel the effects during the latter half of Winter.

 

Best keep an eye on things, see if rapid warming begins http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssn&inv=0&t=cur