Sea Surface Temperatures

[summer blizzard]

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Very -PDO signal remains and MEI shows that El Nino weakened last month as do the anomaly chart.

Ignoring the warm anomalies over Europe i like that chart, especially the cold anomaly to the north.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Ignoring the warm anomalies over Europe i like that chart, especially the cold anomaly to the north.

Great update Summer Blizzard As we have seen since early April 2012 I always feel that those High Latitude North Atlantic cold pools can act as a wild card which means Britain and Scandinavia can experience decent early cold weather whist the rest of Europe remains in summer like warmth due to the highly amplified Scandi Troughs. Edited September 17, 2012 by Craig Evans

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

Very -PDO signal remains and MEI shows that El Nino weakened last month as do the anomaly chart.

Ignoring the warm anomalies over Europe i like that chart, especially the cold anomaly to the north.

Probably a mixture of extra northerly winds in the area combined with plenty of cold fresh water from the record sea ice melt causing that cold pool to form.

Will be interesting to see if it lasts through the Autumn.

[Mark Neal.]

Probably a mixture of extra northerly winds in the area combined with plenty of cold fresh water from the record sea ice melt causing that cold pool to form.

Will be interesting to see if it lasts through the Autumn.

You say extra northerly winds, would this be for us or somewhere else in Europe? Thanks.

[BornFromTheVoid]

You say extra northerly winds, would this be for us or somewhere else in Europe? Thanks.

I meant that there has been extra northerly winds down the east coast of Greenland since mid summer. This has brought colder air and colder waters to where the negative sea surface temperature anomalies are just to the east of Iceland, on the chart that summer blizzard posted above.

[summer blizzard]

Probably a mixture of extra northerly winds in the area combined with plenty of cold fresh water from the record sea ice melt causing that cold pool to form.

Will be interesting to see if it lasts through the Autumn.

I suspect that it will last personally.

What we tend to see in spring is massive melt causing cold anomolies whilst warm anomolies in Autumn pre-freeze so the fact that we have such a pattern is encouraging to see.

Personally i find the PDO situation facinating, rather than being moderated by a strengtheing El Nino it looks as though the PDO may be comprehensively winning the battle and El Nino in areas 1 and 2 is fading.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest ENSO update from the NOAA.

Summary points are

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch*

• ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*

• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are greater than 0.5°C above average across the eastern Pacific Ocean.

• The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific is near average.

• El Niño conditions are likely to develop during September 2012.*

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

[BornFromTheVoid]

I suspect that it will last personally.

What we tend to see in spring is massive melt causing cold anomolies whilst warm anomolies in Autumn pre-freeze so the fact that we have such a pattern is encouraging to see.

Personally i find the PDO situation facinating, rather than being moderated by a strengtheing El Nino it looks as though the PDO may be comprehensively winning the battle and El Nino in areas 1 and 2 is fading.

What's interesting to note with regard the PDO, is that this August was the 3rd most -ve on record, and this summer (June-Aug) the 5th most -ve on record.

The cold anomalies to our north do seem a little out of place with regards recent years, as the September mean anomaly from 2007-2011 shows.

[summer blizzard]

El Nino definitely collapsing over the last two weeks, could be neutral/negative by winter.

[geoffw]

El Nino definitely collapsing over the last two weeks, could be neutral/negative by winter.

is this good or bad?

[summer blizzard]

is this good or bad?

A neutral ENSO would allow other factors to dominate like the QBO and PDO and they are looking pretty good for the moment.

[ZONE 51]

A neutral ENSO would allow other factors to dominate like the QBO and PDO and they are looking pretty good for the moment.

Which indicate a colder winter rather then a mild Atlantic driven winter.

What i see now is a higher risk of a Dec2010 type pattern.

Edited October 3, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[summer blizzard]

So it's like ENSO is switched off to an affect that won't distrupt the QBO/PDO's power? which means now they can be let lose to enhance the risk of a cold winter?

In theory though there is likely to be some 'atmospheric memory' so to speak which may lend to a weak El Nino like setup at times (though thats not bad anyway).

[summer blizzard]

Just looking through the archives for early November to see which years we will likely be similar to..

2003..

2008..

A couple of years with similar Atlantic profiles but what is notable this year is the amplified Pacific pattern.

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Very negative anomolies now developing off South America.

Call me bullish but i declare the prospect of El Nino (by MEI readings) dead.

[cheeky_monkey]

http://weather.unisy...ce/sst_anom.gif

Very negative anomolies now developing off South America.

Call me bullish but i declare the prospect of El Nino (by MEI readings) dead.

Judging by this latest predictions if anything we are heading into a weak La Nina state over the winter.

[summer blizzard]

Our cold pool to the north is back.

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Good signal for Atlantic blocking remains.

[summer blizzard]

Based on the latest i would say that at some point the atmosphere will move into a much more La Nina like mode (though increasing spring westerlies in the Tropics as a result of the QBO phase changing may change that).

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

• 

So much for an El nino winter be it moderate or weak. That IMO is the perturbation cycle showing its hand...La Nina phases more likely to dominate

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

• 

So much for an El nino winter be it moderate or weak. That IMO is the perturbation cycle showing its hand...La Nina phases more likely to dominate

BFTP

Whilst MEI values will probably get close to a weak La Nina i'd expect that to moderate in spring/summer as that +QBO strengthens (subsurface waters are still fairly warm).

[summer blizzard]

[karyo]

Whilst MEI values will probably get close to a weak La Nina i'd expect that to moderate in spring/summer as that +QBO strengthens (subsurface waters are still fairly warm).

What is the forecast for the rest of the year?

Karyo

[summer blizzard]

What is the forecast for the rest of the year?

Karyo

Neutral.

I'd lean on the positive side personally.

[Evening thunder]

It can't be too often you get sub 4C SST's around part of the UK coast, that also link up to the colder SST's further east?

http://ghrsst-pp.met...t.html?i=34&j=2

Also some pretty cold anomalies showing if you click on SST anomaly plot (below the image). These details in temperatures and anomalies don't seem to be picked out by the more general global charts.

Edited March 16, 2013 by Stormmad26