Sea Surface Temperatures

[BornFromTheVoid]

Next animation

ENSO must be nearing neutral at this stage. Warm anomalies disappearing across the Northern hemisphere. PDO looks strongly negative though.

[Evening thunder]

No one has posted for a while - but I notice there's been a large area of negative anomaly to our west for a while now, I assume this will probably result in weather coming from that direction being 1 or 2C cooler than it would be with 'normal' SST's?

Meanwhile SST's up the North Sea coast appear to be >1C above average.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

[summer blizzard]

No one has posted for a while - but I notice there's been a large area of negative anomaly to our west for a while now, I assume this will probably result in weather coming from that direction being 1 or 2C cooler than it would be with 'normal' SST's?

Meanwhile SST's up the North Sea coast appear to be >1C above average.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

I think we know why we have had a trough parked over us now. Pretty strong signal for blocking in the Greenland area too.

Can we have a loop of the past few months?

[Cheese Rice]

http://weather.unisy...ce/sst_anom.gif

Interesting to see more below average than above.

Is this normal?

[Met4Cast]

http://weather.unisy...ce/sst_anom.gif

Interesting to see more below average than above.

Is this normal?

Considering it's BELOW the average, I'm going to say it's not normal. There seems to be some very warm SSTs to the North of Iceland heading North-East.

Weird.

[snowlover2009]

Considering it's BELOW the average, I'm going to say it's not normal. There seems to be some very warm SSTs to the North of Iceland heading North-East.

Weird.

what do those warm water suggest and for pattern wise for the upcoming autumn at least?

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Certainly an interesting anomoly chart.

In the eastern Pacific we see a perfect example of a tripole we DO NOT want to see anywhere near winter in the eastern Atlantic. It would yield a strong Azores High and strong Greenland Low.

In regards to the Atlantic itself we have a shield of cold anomolies which is why we have a mean trough over western Europe although with the weaker anomolies to the north, which is why we have blocking near Greenland.

In conclusion, wet and showery looks likely during the first half of August.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest animation.

The main point in recent weeks is the seeming re-emergence of La Nina, with cool anomalies once again beginning to spread across the equatorial Pacific.

Some positive anomalies developing around Greenland also

[cyclonic happiness]

I wish they'd change the colours around a bit on those anomoly charts, it's so difficult to see the very slight colour difference between plus and minus.

It is encouraging though to see all that below average stuff :-) (well, sort of see it)

[chionomaniac]

The latest animation. The main point in recent weeks is the seeming re-emergence of La Nina, with cool anomalies once again beginning to spread across the equatorial Pacific. Some positive anomalies developing around Greenland also

Surely the most striking thing about this animation is the striking warm pool seen in the Central North Pacific linked to a very negative PDO?

This is bound to leave a resident ridge at this time of year that will have knock on effects to the wave pattern and flow downstream.

Edited August 16, 2011 by chionomaniac

[BornFromTheVoid]

I wish they'd change the colours around a bit on those anomoly charts, it's so difficult to see the very slight colour difference between plus and minus.

It is encouraging though to see all that below average stuff :-) (well, sort of see it)

They have a new version of the maps where it's much easier to distinguish between the slight positive and negative anomalies here http://weather.unisy...ssn&inv=0&t=cur They don't look nearly as cool as the old version.

Surely the most striking thing about this animation is the striking warm pool seen in the Central North Pacific?

This is bound to leave a resident ridge at this time of year that will have knock on effects to the wave pattern and flow downstream.

Yeh, that anomaly is probably the most stand out thing on the map. It's been there in some form or another (though not as "warm" as in recent weeks) since about last August, so I didn't really mention it. http://weather.unisy...anom-100815.gif

With that very large positive anomaly in the N. Pacific and what seems like the re-emergence of La Nina, anyone care to take a guess at their influence across our shores this Autumn?

[summer blizzard]

The signal in the Pacific is not so much for a -PDO at the moment although it should become more negative in winter as the ice refreezes although not very negative. The tripole pattern in the Pacific lends itself to a +PNA pattern with an east coast trough.

The signal in the Atlantic is not bad. The Azores High well south and low pressure south of the UK.

All in all, a pretty good signal, though not perfect.

Edited August 16, 2011 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif

Much greater detail on the new charts.

Pacific..

Currently the signal has not changed much all summer in that there is a -PDO like pattern with a pretty strong/flat Jet Stream over the western Canada and a resultant ridge over the west of the USA with troughing in the east. This signal should remain through October.

The chart also shows La Nina strengthening with MEI values for August already in weak La Nina territory.

Looking ahead the pattern in the Pacific is not a bad one with the cold pool under Alaska likely to connect with the ice once it grows and La Nina likely to mean a cold pool right along the western USA. This should have the effect of weakening the Pacific Jet Stream and promoting a polar vortex over western Canada.

Atlantic..

The dominant pattern over the summer has been for Greenland blocking and low pressure pretty much over the UK, given the pattern of SST's this should continue well into October.

Looking ahead and the pattern is not too bad again with a fairly strong signal that we could see mid-lattitude ridging in the Atlantic once Europe cools and the ice extent grows although if that warm pool remains over the east of the USA then we could see highs over the UK rather than west.

[Isolated Frost]

Liking the cool anomaly towards the west of the UK and loving the warmth of the baltic and north seas. North easterlies please?!

[cyclonic happiness]

They have a new version of the maps where it's much easier to distinguish between the slight positive and negative anomalies here http://weather.unisy...ssn&inv=0&t=cur They don't look nearly as cool as the old version.

Yeh, that anomaly is probably the most stand out thing on the map. It's been there in some form or another (though not as "warm" as in recent weeks) since about last August, so I didn't really mention it. http://weather.unisy...anom-100815.gif

With that very large positive anomaly in the N. Pacific and what seems like the re-emergence of La Nina, anyone care to take a guess at their influence across our shores this Autumn?

That's good, i lost the link for the anomoly charts a while ago, so didn't know they changed the colours around a bit.

IMO they are LOT easier to understand and deceifer (spelling?).

They are still pretty 'trippy' looking though.......not to be viewed whilst on LSD

[damianslaw]

http://weather.unisy...st_anom_new.gif

Much greater detail on the new charts.

Pacific..

Currently the signal has not changed much all summer in that there is a -PDO like pattern with a pretty strong/flat Jet Stream over the western Canada and a resultant ridge over the west of the USA with troughing in the east. This signal should remain through October.

The chart also shows La Nina strengthening with MEI values for August already in weak La Nina territory.

Looking ahead the pattern in the Pacific is not a bad one with the cold pool under Alaska likely to connect with the ice once it grows and La Nina likely to mean a cold pool right along the western USA. This should have the effect of weakening the Pacific Jet Stream and promoting a polar vortex over western Canada.

Atlantic..

The dominant pattern over the summer has been for Greenland blocking and low pressure pretty much over the UK, given the pattern of SST's this should continue well into October.

Looking ahead and the pattern is not too bad again with a fairly strong signal that we could see mid-lattitude ridging in the Atlantic once Europe cools and the ice extent grows although if that warm pool remains over the east of the USA then we could see highs over the UK rather than west.

I always though heights tend to be higher to the east of warmer than normal seas - so wouldn't we maintain strong mid atlantic ridging if seas remain warm over the east of the USA? - ensuring plenty of warm air advection up the west side of Greenland - a key ingridient for delivering sustained cold to the UK. Hopefully we can maintain warm seas over east USA well into late autumn - cooler seas in this area will help to generate deep low pressure action in the mid atlantic on a crash course for the UK with their associated well formed warm and cold sectors - meaning stormy wet conditions with only temporary ridging and colder conditions.

[Coast]

Coastal water information for much of England including SST's, wave heights and live information etc:

http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/

[summer blizzard]

I always though heights tend to be higher to the east of warmer than normal seas - so wouldn't we maintain strong mid atlantic ridging if seas remain warm over the east of the USA? - ensuring plenty of warm air advection up the west side of Greenland - a key ingridient for delivering sustained cold to the UK. Hopefully we can maintain warm seas over east USA well into late autumn - cooler seas in this area will help to generate deep low pressure action in the mid atlantic on a crash course for the UK with their associated well formed warm and cold sectors - meaning stormy wet conditions with only temporary ridging and colder conditions.

If the winter SST senario came off then i suspect that the cool air pouring out of Canada would energise the Jet Stream, pushing the high east, over the UK rather than west.

Not bad for winter is how i would sum up the SST outlook although we also have many other things looking good.

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif

Cold patches developing off Siberia and Australia may be of interest.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like in the N. Atlantic, signs of the tripole pattern from Greenland to the Azores is beginning to appear again.

[stormforce 10]

hi there void.

what does that mean in laymans for us noobs?

[BornFromTheVoid]

A warm-cool-warm sst anomaly pattern. It will take some time to see how and if it develops, but generally it results a tendency for high pressure being close to or just North of Ireland and the UK... I think!

[summer blizzard]

A warm-cool-warm sst anomaly pattern. It will take some time to see how and if it develops, but generally it results a tendency for high pressure being close to or just North of Ireland and the UK... I think!

-NAO signiture effectively meaning high pressure north of the UK and low pressure south.

[stormforce 10]

A warm-cool-warm sst anomaly pattern. It will take some time to see how and if it develops, but generally it results a tendency for high pressure being close to or just North of Ireland and the UK... I think!

that's great a cold frosty autumn in the offing.

[cheeky_monkey]

Looks like La Nina is now in full swing again