Chase 2010 - Day 29 Discussion

[Nick F]

Slight Risk today across the central/southern High Plains of SE CO, Wern KS, Wern OK and Wern TX. I am drawn to a target of Lamar in SE Colorado, looking at WRF/NAM it shows dry line/frontal boundary triple point across SE Colorado and this would be the area with best helicity for rotating storms that may drop a tornado, though tornado probs from SPC only at 5% for today:

- Td and SBCAPE 00z (18z CDT).

- 0-1km/0-3km SR Helicity 00z (18z CDT)

Surface charts for 18z (3pm) and 06z (midnight):

SPC outlook for today:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1247 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS KS/SERN CO AND SWD

ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HALF OF MAINE...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER NERN MT/WRN ND WILL CONTINUE NNEWD INTO THE

CANADIAN PRAIRIE...LEAVING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN HALF

OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL

PERSIST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND A BROAD

LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT WRN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NEW

ENGLAND...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS

VALLEY REGION. TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT SHOULD LINGER W-E

ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT

CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND WRN KS/SERN CO SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD EXPAND WWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS

TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED NWWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE

COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.

STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF SERN

CO...NEAR THE REMNANT W-E FRONTAL ZONE. SCATTERED STORMS MAY THEN

EXPAND ENEWD INTO CENTRAL KS...AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE

SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.

WITH 25-35 KT SWLYS ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN AND

CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL SELYS...SHEAR SHOULD BE

SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. A FEW

STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING

WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS SHOULD

CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH

LOCAL SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS

WELL.

[TornadoJo]

Hey,

I'm a new learner and this is my first guess at a target area ever!!!

I'm gonna go a bit further south than you just to be different and go for the oklahoma/texas panhandle border area. Based on the tri-point, how the storms moved yesterday and guessing if there will be any outflow boundaries left from those.

Hoping thats the right way to think?

Jo x

[Nick F]

Hi Jo, I am sure there will be some supercells to be had in your area further south firing along the dryline, good luck!

[nsrobins]

Like Jo I too am going for the more southern target today in what could be one of those 'surprise' days.

Looks like the DL has failed to retreat as much as forecast and another small surge brings a reasonable potential IMO of some supercells thie evening. I like the area around Liberal/Garden City KS for combined CAPE/EHI with the cap dissolving around 20Z. A strong SE inflow with a steady W at 700HPa makes for some impressive directional shear (if not speed). Storms meandering east at about 20mph should be worth a play should they initiate.

[TornadoJo]

Found a map to find a target town and I like the area between Beaver, Perryton, Beaver, Woodward and Canadian - so as a location the cross roads (Zoomed in and it's around Rosston/Laverne) near the I64 as storms seem to be liking the old interstates this year.

Edited May 25, 2010 by Clippyjo

[nsrobins]

I like you thinking, Jo, and if only all supercells were that convenient! I could order a nice tornadic storm to appear 5 miles SW of Canadian, just in time for me to finish my 16oz prime peppered steak at the cattle Exchange and then pop out to film a lovely stovepipe.

Heaven!

[Paul Sherman]

Going to be leaving Colby at 11am and heading South for a late lunch in Liberal (Ks) will then refine from there but liking the Bois City to Springfield to Liberal Triangle today, 2nd Target like Jo and Neil would be a tad further South towards Canadian across to Guymon! But these are all so very close to Target area that we can get something if it fires further South.

Hoping for a much better day than yesterday and lets see if the Panhandle can work some magic for us again!

Paul S & Team

[paul - stormchase]

Stream is live - currently trying to find a doughnut shop for mr sherman

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

Should be a better signal today, and we have also found the external antenna was doing more harm than good, doh.

[NL]

Meso-Discussion regarding severe potential.

Team are positioned 50 mile t the north of the area bein monitored.

Mesoscale Discussion 710 <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0709.html">< Previous MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0221 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/SWRN KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251921Z - 252015Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF LARGE HAIL AND

DMGG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR

A POSSIBLE WW.

CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO BECOME AGITATED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR

ELKHART KS SWD INTO DALHART TX AND JUST EAST OF CLOVIS NM. MODEST

HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE NOW THINNING

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE DRYLINE. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS

INDICATE A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING IS NECESSARY TO OVERCOME

REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF SERN CO/SWRN

KS MAY CURRENTLY BE UNINHIBITED...AND LIGHTNING HAS RECENTLY BEEN

OBSERVED WITH A CELL FORMING IN BACA COUNTY CO. ALTHOUGH STRONGER

FORCING IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...A WEAK WAVE OBSERVED ON WV

IMAGERY NEAR THE SRN AZ/NM BORDER IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING NEWD...AND

MAY PROVIDE SUBTLE/WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOWS RELATIVELY

WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...THOUGH SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST

MID LEVEL WINDS /35 TO 45 KT/ MAY SUPPORT BRIEFLY ROTATING STORMS

CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.

..HURLBUT.. 05/25/2010

[nsrobins]

Lunch to go chaps - shuffle East towards Lakin NOW!

Sorry - I meant West!

[NL]

Latest visible satellite image showing cells firing up just east of the dryline from SE Colorado down through the western side of Texas.

Severe Thunderstorm watch.

242

WWUS20 KWNS 252005

SEL2

SPC WW 252005

COZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-260300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 222

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST COLORADO

SOUTHWEST KANSAS

EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF

LAMAR COLORADO TO 45 MILES WEST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE

DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 221...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE

SLOW-MOVING DRYLINE BY 21Z FROM THE TX/NM BORDER NWD TO NEAR THE

CO/KS BORDER. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER THE WATCH

AREA...BUT AREA PROFILER PLOTS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR

SUPERCELLS. MID-UPPER FLOW AND WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT SHOULD BE

MAINTAINED OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK EMBEDDED

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD FROM WRN NM. GIVEN THE ZONE OF SURFACE

HEATING E OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND

RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

WWUS40 KWNS 252005

WWP2

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0222

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0304 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

WS 0222

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27015

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Edited May 25, 2010 by NL

[paul - stormchase]

We're heading west to intercept the first cells of the day now..

[nsrobins]

DDC radar showing some upper level storm relative rotation on the Johnson City cell of +10/-15.

[NL]

These cells will be easy to keep up with to travelling at 15mph unlike those beasts in the Dakotas the other day...

[nsrobins]

The most northern cell may be undergoing depletion from the developing cells to the SSW. Not sure what the result will be but maybe the tail enders will be the ones to watch.

[paul - stormchase]

Yep, current thinking is to go take a closer look at the cells in front of us just in case they drop a land spout, then to head south.

[NL]

That cell is tornado warned and has picked up speed to 40mph and moving north.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO

234 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 330 PM MDT

* AT 230 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF HOLLY...OR 29 MILES NORTH OF

THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

[NL]

Tornado warning is now cancelled... but those cells to the south are intensifying

..

Now tornado warned. .... over 250 mile away from the team...!!!

213

WFUS55 KABQ 252058

TORABQ

NMC009-041-252145-

/O.NEW.KABQ.TO.W.0012.100525T2058Z-100525T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

258 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CURRY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

NORTHEASTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT

* AT 251 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTH

OF CLOVIS...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORTALES...MOVING NORTH

AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CLOVIS...

TEXICO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. LEAVE AUTOMOBILES AND MOBILE HOMES. MOVE

INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE WALLS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT

TUESDAY EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

Edited May 25, 2010 by NL

[NL]

Mark Hill is on the Tornado warned cell east of Clovis New Mexico.

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=mark.hill&uid=82

[Nick F]

Storm to the north of the team just NW of Tribune, KS tornado warned again, certainly getting its act together:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

346 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM MDT

* AT 343 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THESE

DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES

NORTHWEST OF HORACE TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHERIDAN LAKE...AND

MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN GREELEY AND SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE

COUNTIES.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 114 AND 134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

In an area with good 0-3km SR Helicity on hourly meso analysis:

[Nick F]

Seems like the storms in a line south along CO/KS border seem to be back building into Colorado, maybe dryline retreating? Very slow motions, tornado warned storm west of Tribune, KS seems to be back building SW into SE Colorado towards my target of Lamar - maybe along E-W frontal boundary.

Storm the team are watching SW of Springfield in far SE Colorado now tornado warned too:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO

433 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN BACA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 530 PM MDT

* AT 430 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMPO...OR 18 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

VILAS...WALSH AND TWO BUTTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[Nick F]

Nice rainbow on the livestream!

[Nick F]

Appears to be a confirmed tornado from storm north of Tribune in far western Kansas. Looks like storm further south near team still tornado warned:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

529 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM MDT

* AT 524 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A CONFIRMED TORNADO 9 MILES NORTH OF HORACE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED

THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 126.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[dallas]

Yeah the stream is holding up well tonight, good viewing

[Gorky]

Today is rapidly becoming a bit of a tornado fest! about to watch number 6 touch down north of Tribune I think...