Atlantic Tropical Wave/disturbance Thread 2010

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

Two waves given attention by the NHC, one at 60W, and at 35W. The wave at 35W is showing a circulation, however i can't really see a circulation present in the wave at 60W, both certainly should be watched and the one at 35W is the one Kold Weather alluded to a few days ago.

[Iceberg]

Looking at the potential over the coming week or two, we have the HP cell still further north than it has been this year, with a low pressure bulge leaving Africa, associated with the ITCZ running around 10N, the models do at various times hint at some possible formation of this and I wouldn't be surprised to see this as in invest in the coming days.

Looking at the ECM it maintains the ITCZ at around 10-12N which is high enough to act as a generator of it's own without some LP development coming off Africa, given this I see every chance of a few more areas of potential cropping up.

BTW the GFS potential shows Colin as a nice TS/low end cane.

[kold weather]

I think that area has a real shot at developing, the models have been sorta trying to develop it. Whilst it will certainly recurve, conditions look decent enough in the Central Atlantic for development. The evolution may not be all that far different from how Colin got going, through two waves interacting. The convection is strengthening off Africa whilst a wave is just about to reach the Atlantic.

The area to watch is probably around 20-25W right now with regards to development according to the models.

[Iceberg]

As expected that area has now become 93L

[Iceberg]

Rigth we have two more areas that might well become invests or TS's down the line in the next few days.

Firstly we have the little feature below 93L, this has really come from nowhere and might just be a Meso low that quickly goes away, however the circulation and convection are good as is the current environment and is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Secondly we have GFS forecasting a Low to be dropped off Africa in a few days time, whether it leaves Africa fully formed al la GFS 00Z is debatable but it's likely to be coming on line given the high level of the ITCZ and potential environment.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

NHC have marked the system east of Florida at 10%.

[Cookie]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

NHC have marked the system east of Florida at 10%.

which became 94L

[Iceberg]

Rigth we have two more areas that might well become invests or TS's down the line in the next few days.

Firstly we have the little feature below 93L, this has really come from nowhere and might just be a Meso low that quickly goes away, however the circulation and convection are good as is the current environment and is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Secondly we have GFS forecasting a Low to be dropped off Africa in a few days time, whether it leaves Africa fully formed al la GFS 00Z is debatable but it's likely to be coming on line given the high level of the ITCZ and potential environment.

Well the feature that was below 93L has continued to move on is now on yellow alert at 10%.

Personally I like it alot, it's got good circulation and a very favourable path, historical as well this is an excellent path for hurricanes to develop on.

Africa is continuing to throw of the areas of interest, the latest is approaching 30W, with another leaving it again in 24 hrs or so.

[summer blizzard]

Well the feature that was below 93L has continued to move on is now on yellow alert at 10%.

Personally I like it alot, it's got good circulation and a very favourable path, historical as well this is an excellent path for hurricanes to develop on.

Africa is continuing to throw of the areas of interest, the latest is approaching 30W, with another leaving it again in 24 hrs or so.

93L is at 70%, though it does not appear to be doing anything rapid.

I think that you mean the wave approaching the Carribean, while this is traditionaly a good area due to the highest heat content, unfortunately we have not seen the waves turning north other than Hurricane Alex, it also looks quite weak..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

There is a clear circulation there, however convection is speradic.

Our next area of interest may well be the system approaching the Bahamas.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Theres a big system about to roll of Africa, this one could be declared before it gets to the Cape Vere Islands.