Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano

[Coast]

New thread here.

This subject covers a lot of associated areas of the volcano including technical information and disruption to travel but please remember the thread title and keep on (this wide ranging) topic!

[saint]

Another COBRA meeting this afternoon.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Newsflash: the Met Office models that policy makers use to make a threat assessment are based on pollutants - gasses - rather than dust particles. The dust solids emitted in volcanic ash are 10 microns across. This is about 20,000 times larger than a molecule of gas.

That's like modelling the spread of a bag of marbles thrown up in the air using a model designed to model the spread of dust!

The models which have caused this scare are not a reliable predictor of what dust is up in the air. No wonder planes which have flown up have found no problems - the dust has already all dropped out of the sky and onto our cars.

All the Met Office models show now is virtual reality dust that does not actually exist.

[saint]

Newsflash: the Met Office models that policy makers use to make a threat assessment are based on pollutants - gasses - rather than dust particles. The dust solids emitted in volcanic ash are 10 microns across. This is about 20,000 times larger than a molecule of gas.

That's like modelling the spread of a bag of marbles thrown up in the air using a model designed to model the spread of dust!

The models which have caused this scare are not a reliable predictor of what dust is up in the air. No wonder planes which have flown up have found no problems - the dust has already all dropped out of the sky and onto our cars.

All the Met Office models show now is virtual reality dust that does not actually exist.

Yes but METO sample planes have discovered Ash in the Sky's above Britian, including Southern Enlgand.

Edited April 19, 2010 by saint

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Yes but METO sample planes have discovered Ash in the Sky's above Britian, including Southern Enlgand.

I accept not all the ash has dropped out of the sky.

And right now the UK is in the direct line of fire so we might expect to have the higher concentrations now. But a blanket ban on the rest of Europe is wholly unnecessary, and there may even be parts of UK and Ireland that are safe to fly.

[katemart]

Newsflash: the Met Office models that policy makers use to make a threat assessment are based on pollutants - gasses - rather than dust particles. The dust solids emitted in volcanic ash are 10 microns across. This is about 20,000 times larger than a molecule of gas.

That's like modelling the spread of a bag of marbles thrown up in the air using a model designed to model the spread of dust!

The models which have caused this scare are not a reliable predictor of what dust is up in the air. No wonder planes which have flown up have found no problems - the dust has already all dropped out of the sky and onto our cars.

All the Met Office models show now is virtual reality dust that does not actually exist.

Fair enough, however:

'Allied F-16s were flying and they did find glass build-up,' the U.S. official said, adding that the glass had been found in the engine of one plane that had flown in European airspace.

'So this is a very, very serious matter that in the not too distant future will start having real impact on military capabilities' if the volcanic cloud doesn't disappear, he said.

The official said the ash cloud had already led to the scaling down of some U.S. military exercises. While planes are flying, he said it was dangerous.

'I think the airspace is closed for a reason,' the official added, referring to flight bans that have affected much of Europe for the past five days.

http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp?shareprice=&ArticleCode=by6w303ns4ldz3c&ArticleHeadline=UPDATE_2Glass_buildup_found_in_NATO_F16_engineUS_official

[saint]

Government ministers are saying the eruption is slowing down and the Ash is lower. (Not that's a good thing as Planes still need to take off and fly through it?!)

But there is the risk we fall into a false sense of secruity, it could spew more Ash out tomorrow or any other days.

[katemart]

Good grief! Michael O'Leary is sounding quite reasonable!

[Optimus Prime]

But a blanket ban on the rest of Europe is wholly unnecessary, and there may even be parts of UK and Ireland that are safe to fly.

I think I'd rather put my faith in scientists rather than yourself, if that's not a problem!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Fair enough, however:

'Allied F-16s were flying and they did find glass build-up,' the U.S. official said, adding that the glass had been found in the engine of one plane that had flown in European airspace.

Imagine a whale moving through the ocean at 20 knots. Whales survive by filtering plankton. Every day one whale consumes something like a tonne of plankton, just by moving through the water and filtering it for plankton.

Let's say the whale can move faster than 20 knots - 40 knots. Do you think the amount of plankton the whale would eat in one day would be the same, more or less? The whale would eat more plankton the faster it swam. Same principle with planes and the sand-blasting effect on jet engines.

F-16s can fly up to mach 1.6. Sand not only enters the jet engine much faster at high speeds but sand enters at a higher density because the jet engine is going faster. It's like when you walk in the rain you don't get your front splattered, but when you run you feel the air rushing by your face and you get your clothes drenched.

'So this is a very, very serious matter that in the not too distant future will start having real impact on military capabilities' if the volcanic cloud doesn't disappear, he said.

What is true for 1100mph jet fighters might not be true for transport planes which fly at 500 mph, or less. Transport planes have flown with no dust effects. That is the evidence that matters to civil aviation.

[saint]

We have no idea how fast these Jets were going, remember they were on patrols and training missions and therefore may not have been going at full speed.

[katemart]

Good grief! Michael O'Leary is sounding quite reasonable!

Aaaaannnnd... it's over. He's moaning about the "ridiculous" passenger compensation rules which means the airline has to pay out more for meals and replacement accommodation when they only paid 30 Euros for a ticket!

Back to your pricing model, then, boyo!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

We have no idea how fast these Jets were going, remember they were on patrols and training missions and therefore may not have been going at full speed.

They would be going very near full speed on training missions.

If you want to be scared, be scared. But there are other people who think it is just as logical not to be scared because the claims being made are not matched by relevant evidence. In fact these people are angry because they can't get home and their livelihoods are suffering while good ol' Gordo is playing Lord Nelson.

Edited April 19, 2010 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[katemart]

The first principle of good science is to eliminate any possible sources of bias. When the MoD tell me that the most technologically advanced fighter planes are liable to fall out of the sky but a 20 year-old Embraer is fine I will believe them: when Willy Walsh tells me the same thing I am inclined to think it's BS.

[saint]

They would be going very near full speed on training missions.

If you want to be scared, be scared. But there are other people who think it is just as logical not to be scared because the claims being made are not matched by relevant evidence. In fact these people are angry because they can't get home and their livelihoods are suffering while Gordo is playing Lord Nelson.

Oh yeah I'm scared! I'm just saying that it is a risk for planes to be flying into this Ash. There is the risk to planes, and as long as there is that risk, then planes shouldn't be flying in these areas. Don't foget, Ash doesn't just stay in it's place, it will move around.

[Coast]

What is true for 1100mph jet fighters might not be true for transport planes which fly at 500 mph, or less. Transport planes have flown with no dust effects. That is the evidence that matters to civil aviation.

So why haven't the RAF and other NATO forces wheeled out their C-130 Hercules turboprop transport planes and shoved everybody (90 at a go?) into the back of them and bought them home? Easier to get going a rescue plan using those than 3 Navy ships surely + the airports are sitting idle ready to receive them?

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The first principle of good science is to eliminate any possible sources of bias. When the MoD tell me that the most technologically advanced fighter planes are liable to fall out of the sky but a 20 year-old Embraer is fine I will believe them: when Willy Walsh tells me the same thing I am inclined to think it's BS.

The second principle of good science should be to disregard appeals to authority.

[katemart]

They would be going very near full speed on training missions.

If you want to be scared, be scared. But there are other people who think it is just as logical not to be scared because the claims being made are not matched by relevant evidence. In fact these people are angry because they can't get home and their livelihoods are suffering while good ol' Gordo is playing Lord Nelson.

Er, these people went abroad on holiday - many of them to second- and third-world countries. Things happen and if that makes them "angry" then they should really have a good look at their priorities. We don't have a god-given right to jet about the planet at our own convenience. Those who are overseas on business I should imagine are having a rather nice rest.

I am not scared as I imagine the risk can be effectively reduced to an acceptable level *with some independent scientific input* but I shall be a bit cross if a plane full of hungover lads coming back from a stag week in Estonia comes down on my house.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

So why haven't the RAF and other NATO forces wheeled out their C-130 Hercules turboprop transport planes and shoved everybody (90 at a go?)into the back of them and bought them home? Easy to get going a rescue plan using those than 3 Navy ships surely + the airports are sitting idle ready to receive them?

Good question. My guess is there aren't enough of them and they are being used in places like Afghanistan.

[pyrotech]

Imagine a whale moving through the ocean at 20 knots. Whales survive by filtering plankton. Every day one whale consumes something like a tonne of plankton, just by moving through the water and filtering it for plankton.

Let's say the whale can move faster than 20 knots - 40 knots. Do you think the amount of plankton the whale would eat in one day would be the same, more or less? The whale would eat more plankton the faster it swam. Same principle with planes and the sand-blasting effect on jet engines.

F-16s can fly up to mach 1.6. Sand not only enters the jet engine much faster at high speeds but sand enters at a higher density because the jet engine is going faster. It's like when you walk in the rain you don't get your front splattered, but when you run you feel the air rushing by your face and you get your clothes drenched.

What is true for 1100mph jet fighters might not be true for transport planes which fly at 500 mph, or less. Transport planes have flown with no dust effects. That is the evidence that matters to civil aviation.

I see your point but.........

A plane flying 200 miles through a dust cloud at 400mph takes 1/2 hour to go through it. plane at 800 mph takes quarter of an hour.

So half the speed means longer inside taking dust in.

So effect could be same.

If i went to airport today and terrorism warning was high alert. then told i can fly but security systems not being used i would be pretty worried.

This is the same, any risk plane does not go, full stop.

Same people would be shouting if no warning put up and a plane went down.

These are real lives, there is no room for complacency. Yes its inconvenient and costly but one life lost is a higher price to pay and there is potential for many lives to be lost if responsible action was not taken.

I agree with getting further information and investigating safe windows to get things moving but not with moving the goal posts for financial reasons.

Safety first, then reinvestigate and information gathering then continuous risk assessment with actions inline with the assessment.

I would rather be stuck somewhere than heading to earth from 20000 ft with no engines working waiting to meet my maker

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I see your point but.........

A plane flying 200 miles through a dust cloud at 400mph takes 1/2 hour to go through it. plane at 800 mph takes quarter of an hour.

So half the speed means longer inside taking dust in.

So effect could be same.

If i went to airport today and terrorism warning was high alert. then told i can fly but security systems not being used i would be pretty worried.

This is the same, any risk plane does not go, full stop.

This would be relevant if the training exercises last 15 minutes. My guess is they last longer than that, perhaps over an hour even. Any RAF pilots reading??

[dogs32]

Scottish flights going up 06.00 the Midlands soon to follow tomorrow and Southern airports...

will take several days to get back to normal..

[saint]

Scottish flights going up 06.00 the Midlands soon to follow tomorrow and Southern airports...

will take several days to get back to normal..

Where's this info from?

[dogs32]

Where's this info from?

Sky news...happy times ahead

dont worry Saint I will take some nice pics of Supercells for you

only kidding

Edited April 19, 2010 by dogs32

[saint]

Sky news...happy times ahead

Ahh ok, just didn't see it on BBC News 24.