General Volcanic Activity Thread!

[karyo]

Can I start getting excited???

 

Funny that I've been waiting for Katla and it seems that another volcano may erupt instead!

 

Karyo

[lorenzo]

Found this on twitter - really cool, an animated Earthquake map.

 

http://jawei1.cartodb.com/viz/0af3dfbe-25f3-11e4-aa22-0e230854a1cb/public_map

 

Also here is the page within IMO for Aviation warnings.

 

http://en.vedur.is/weather/aviation/volcanic-hazards/

Edited August 17, 2014 by lorenzo

[lorenzo]

Some great updates here https://twitter.com/subglacial

 

Dave McGarvie is a volcanologist working in Iceland, tweets this morning to speculate the low impact potential for Air traffic due to location of quakes being far from caldera.

 

Followed by other predicted impacts, really worth reading.

Edited August 17, 2014 by lorenzo

[Buriedundersnow]

Can I start getting excited???

 

Funny that I've been waiting for Katla and it seems that another volcano may erupt instead!

 

Karyo

 

 

i wouldnt get too excited yet depending on what kind of eruption it is if one happens it could be quite dangerous for us.

 

if we get a big explosive eruption then it shouldn't be so bad but if we get a more laki style eruption with huge lava flows then because it doesn't eject everything to a good height the sulphur can hang around at the surface and leave us with poisonous sulphur clouds floating about which isn't good for us and wont be good for farmer and crops and livestock as it could wipe a fair amount out and leave us struggling remember all they years ago laki killed about 1 million people and look how many more people there are in Europe and even north America now.

 

so I would be a little wary these big Iceland eruptions can cause some real problems katla isn't so bad because its usually big explosive eruptions so everything gets blown to height this could turn out to be rather problematic but we wont know till it blows and we see just how it blows.

[john pike]

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5

 

current jetstream location

 

 

if it erupts soon and is big enough

 

there is likely to be some problems re travel coming up

 

its a shame noone can confidently predict what happens next

 

all we can do it watch

 

if we have a sharp stop in quakes then that would be the time to watch in my opinion

Edited August 17, 2014 by john pike

[john pike]

Bárdarbunga volcano news & activity updates Bárdarbunga volcano (Iceland): earthquake swarm, possible subglacial eruption

Sunday Aug 17, 2014 11:19 AM | BY: T

Earthquakes under Bárdabunga volcano (Icelandic Met Office)

Harmonic tremor (Dyngjuháls SIL station, IMO)

An intense earthquake swarm started yesterday under Bárðarbunga volcano, located under the northwestern part of the Vatnajökull ice cap. It is continuing at the moment and accompanied by elevated harmonic tremor.
This might indicate a subglacial eruption at the volcano, but this needs yet to be confirmed.
The last eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano was in 1797, while another eruption in 1910 took place at neighboring Hamarinn volcano.

• All news about: Bárdarbunga volcano
• Information about: Bárdarbunga volcano

 

 

 

 

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/bardarbunga/news/46826/Brdarbunga-volcano-Iceland-earthquake-swarm-possible-subglacial-eruption.html

 

 

 

 

http://volcanodiscovery.com/bardabunga-earthquakes/archive/2014-aug.html

Edited August 17, 2014 by john pike

[john pike]

Mayon volcano (Philippines): new lava dome in summit crater

Sunday Aug 17, 2014 11:37 AM | BY: T

A small lava dome is present at the top of the volcano. During a field survey on 12 August, PHIVOLCS scientists observed a new lava dome, approx. 30-50 m high. It is not known when exactly the dome had grown, but it seems likely that it was relatively recently.

In the past 2 months, the volcano experienced weak and short phases of inflation, suggesting pulses of rising magma. In addition, sulfur dioxide emissions had been higher than normal during the past 2 weeks. However, no incandescence was observed during the past 4 months.

As a precaution, PHILVOLCS decided to raise the alert level of the volcano from 1 to 2. An exclusion zone of 6 km radius around the summit is in place.

Previously, it had been raised from 0 to 1 last year on 2 June, following changes in seismic activity and observed glow at the summit crater.

[*]All news about: Mayon volcano

[*]Information about: Mayon volcano

[john pike]

Kverkfjoell volcano (Iceland): glacial flood and small phreatic explosion (Icelandic Civil Protection)

Saturday Aug 17, 2013 11:03 AM | BY: T

Aerial photo of the NE rim of the Kverkjökull glacier with deposits of the flood and ash from the phreatic explosion (

 

THIS IS FROM 2013 not now

 

this is from the volcano which is close to Bárdarbunga volcano and happened exactly the same time last year

A small phreatic eruption seems to have taken place yesterday at the ice-covered Kverkfjoell central volcano. The steam-driven (no fresh magma involved) explosion followed a small glacial flood on 15 August the Kverkjökull glacier released into the Volga river and was probably a result of the pressure release during the flood.

[*]All news about: Kverkfjöll volcano

[*]Information about: Kverkfjöll volcano

---

 

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/kverkfjoell/news/36423/Kverkfjoell-volcano-Iceland-glacial-flood-and-small-phreatic-explosion-Icelandic-Civil-Protection.html

[Mokidugway]

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5

 

current jetstream location

 

 

if it erupts soon and is big enough

 

there is likely to be some problems re travel coming up

 

its a shame noone can confidently predict what happens next

 

all we can do it watch

 

if we have a sharp stop in quakes then that would be the time to watch in my opinion

oh dear , flying to us next week !!....

[Buzzit]

Large scale plot map (easier to see where the quakes have been so far)

 

 

getting close to 1500 quakes now - whatever the outcome it will be very interesting, some plotting methods have shown inflation

[BrickFielder]

  The harmonic tremor at Bárðarbunga volcano and the fact that the earthquakes are forming in a line south-south-east of Bárðarbungu volcano interests me.

 

One theory is that earthquakes and harmonic tremor happen as magma is forced through a narrow conduit under great pressure into the heart of the mountain. The thick magma sticks to the rock surface inside the conduit until the pressure is enough to move it higher, where it sticks until the pressure moves it again. Each of these sudden movements results in a small earthquake, ranging in magnitude from about 0.5 to 1.5. As the pressure builds, the quakes get smaller and happen in such rapid succession that they blend into a continuous harmonic tremor.  Often there is a pause in the harmonic tremor frequency increase just before the volcanic eruption.

 

  This might suggest some quite high pressures within the volcano system. Bárðarbunga has had a mixed history with smaller eruptions  frequently northeast of Bárðarbunga in an ice-free  with the last such eruption occurring in 1862. 8500 years ago Bárðarbunga produced the largest holocene lava flow on earth and most  of the large eruptions have occurred southwest of the glacier. Personally I would think that there might be a flood risk from a sub glacial volcano erupting, although I am unsure exactly where the flow off is from this volcano.

 

 The national comissioner of police and the District Commissioners of Police at Hvolsvöllur town and Húsavík town have declared a Civil Protection Uncertainty phase due to unrest in Bárðarbunga volcano in Vatnajökull glacier, Southeast Iceland.

 

Link to some recent commentary

 

http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/

[Buzzit]

Latest

 

Seismic activity at Bárðarbunga persists

18.8.2014

The intense seismic activity that started on 16 of August at Bárðarbunga persists. Very strong indications of ongoing magma movement, in connection with dyke intrusion, is corroborated by GPS measurements. There are currently two swarms: one to the E of Bardarbunga caldera and one at the edge of Dyngjajokull just E of Kistufell. At 2.37 am on the 18th a strong earthquake (M4) was located in the Kistufell swarm.

This is the strongest earthquake measured in the region since 1996. As evidence of magma movement shallower than 10 km implies increased potential of a volcanic eruption, the Bárðarbunga aviation color code may possibly be changed. Presently there are no signs of eruption, but it cannot be excluded that the current activity will result in an explosive subglacial eruption, leading to an outburst flood (jökulhlaup) and ash emission. The situation is monitored closely.

[Gael_Force]

Aviation code raised to orange.

 

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/volcanic-eruptions/

 

 Uptick in activity recently -

 

 

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/drumplot/vatnajokull.html

 

 

[john pike]

http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2938

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dike_(geology)

The pressure build up there looks immense

Question is

Will it break the ice?

Trying to see if any update pics there but cannot find any at present

Fascinating watching to see what happens next

[Sainsbo]

I thought this article was a good read.

 

http://www.decodedscience.com/activity-bardarbunga-another-icelandic-volcano-erupt/48727

[john pike]

Visitors to Iceland have been warned to monitor earthquake activity as the Foreign Office issues an alert. The National Police Commissioner in Iceland has declared a Civil Protection Uncertainty phase due to increased activity in the Brðabunga volcano in Vatnajokull glacier in the South East of Iceland. The FO said several hundred minor earthquakes have been detected east of Brðarbunga and around Kistufell. Visitors are advised to monitor Icelandic Met Office reports and follow the advice of the Icelandic emergency services. Up to date information on seismic activity and the effects of volcanic eruptions in Iceland can be found on the following websites: Icelandic Meteorological Office, Icelandic Civil Protection Authority, Institute of Earth Science and UK Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eyjafjallajokull and Grimsvotn volcanoes erupted in 2010 and 2011 respectively causing mass disruption to Icelandic and European airspace.

 

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/index.php?pageid=event_update_read&edis_id=VA-20140817-44941-ISL&uid=15172

 

 

it certainly is not slowing down

 

 

 

 

images from iceland met office

 

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/

 

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table%C2'> see the list there 1520 quakes since saturday at 18.00

 

still a watch and wait

[john pike]

Bárdarbunga volcano (Iceland): continuing earthquake swarm & inflation, orange alert

Monday Aug 18, 2014 18:43 PM | BY: T

Earthquakes under Bárdabunga volcano during the past days

An eruption of the subglacial volcano seems more and more likely to be imminent. Rapid inflation suggests magma intrusion at shallow depth. Orange alert has been declared today by the Iceland Met Office (IMO).

The earthquake swarm continues intense with so far approx. 2000 earthquakes detected, including about 200 of magnitude 2 and higher. A magnitude 4.5 event occurred this morning NE of the volcano at 6 km depth.

The epicenter locations have migrated from their original cluster location east of the volcano to an elongated area to the NE of the volcano. This would likely be the area a new eruption could start.

[*]All news about: Bárdarbunga volcano

[*]Information about: Bárdarbunga volcano

 

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/bardarbunga/news/46852/Brdarbunga-volcano-Iceland-continuing-earthquake-swarm-inflation-orange-alert.html

 

[Gael_Force]

A new webcam for volcano voyeurs.

 

 

A live webcam of Bardarbunga volcano is now available, with a still image updated every few minutes. The webcam was set up at the mountain Grimsfjall, 30 km (19 mi) from Bardarbunga.

Earthquakes have continued to strike the area, in the northwestern part of the glacier Vatnajokull. The most intense activity has been to the north and east of the volcano's caldera, where magma has been moving up towards the surface. However, there are currently no signs that an eruption has started.

The webcam is available here.

This story, by the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service (RUV), was updated on 18 August 2014, at 18:03 GMT.

Updates in English will be posted at: ruv.is/volcano

[john pike]

The Icelandic Coast Guard surveillance plane has been called home from abroad in light of a possible eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano in the northwestern corner of Vatnajökull glacier, Southeast Iceland, ruv.is reports.

The plane, which is equipped with radar, cameras and other equipment ideal for the monitoring of eruptions, has been used in border patrols in the southern Mediterranean.

It is expected back in Iceland after midday tomorrow.

 

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/08/18/coast-guard-plane-called-home-eruption-monitoring

 

maybe we will get some overhead shots tomorrow

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/08/18/flood-go-down-dettifoss

[lorenzo]

Another version of the quake activity.

 

Folks getting much quicker with information and varied displays - this is another cool one.

 

http://gfycat.com/FaithfulRipeIntermediateegret

[john pike]

http://vedur2.mogt.is/grimsfjall/webcam/images//m140818195001714.jpg

 

nice halo

[keithlucky]

Risk of iceland euruption raises to orange level http://local.msn.com/iceland-raises-risk-level-for-volcano-eruption-to-second-highest

[john pike]

Stromboli volcano (Eolian Islands, Italy): increased lava flow activity

Monday Aug 18, 2014 20:50 PM | BY: TOMPFEIFFER

Lava flow on Stromboli this evening (INGV Sciara del Fuoco webcam)

Corresponding thermal image

The eruption continues with no significant change, but lava effusion seems to have increased. Several secondary active branches formed on the upper part of the new lava flow field and are visible on webcam images.

• All news about: Stromboli volcano
• Information about: Stromboli volcano

http://archive.volcanodiscovery.com/webcam/videos/106/video.mp4

Edited August 18, 2014 by john pike

[Polarlow]

Just came across this blog !!!

Irpsit

August 18, 2014 at 19:57

Important update.

I can now tell you, at this level of activity, we still need to wait several weeks until we see a proper sized eruption. Unless a string of M5 quakes hits, then an eruption would just be hours away, if that number of M5 quakes is near 10 (or same equivalent cumulative seismic energy), or one M6 event or near that.

Why is this?

The GPS stations at both sides of the intrusion taking place at Bardarbunga show a lateral displacement of around 2cm per day (1cm/day in both directions).

During the last rifting event at Bardarbunga, the rifting displacement was around 1.5 meters (150cm) as the fissure opened, over some 15km. Let’s say we expect an event about half of it. To be on the conservative side. And 7km is just the same as Gjálp.

At this rate, we will need 35 days, to see a displacement of 75cm as the rift opens.

Total energy combined is probably equivalent to a M5. Until yesterday I calculated total energy to be about M4.5. Today it nears M5 (total cummulative seismic energy). That equates to a displacement of a few cms, which is what is actually taken place. Which is too little!

One M6 equates to a displacement of 50cm, so it is near what it is necessary to see such a fissure ripping apart of sufficient lenght; or a string of 10 quakes at M5.

Thus until this moment, only about 1/10th of the threshold energy has been released.

So this gives 10 times longer time, until we see an eruption of the type I assumed, if the current level of activity keeps.

But a few M5 quakes would quickly speed the process, to only a few days necessary.

So I predict to see either more 9 times of intrusions with the same sort of intensity (if such activity would now stop – which seems to be unlikely at the moment), or this intrusion continues for more 35 days (until mid September), or the energy increases until the level of several M5 or one M6 event (which at current level of increasing activity is just a few days ahead). If this intrusion continues for some more days but then dies down, then we would still need another one or few repeats of same intensity, until a fissure event.

Consider this the threshold.

Now, you know when to expect the start of the eruption.

Simple maths.

Irpsit

August 18, 2014 at 20:01

[Buriedundersnow]

 

(until mid September),

 

 

 

maybe its waiting to give us an independence display