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Atlantic Invest Thread 2010


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

94L has emerged off Columbia and looks pretty good at the moment. Yes, convection isn't amazing but there is good rotation already and some formative banding on the western side of the disturbance. Shear is low, and waters are still a toasty 29C so some slow development looks likely. NHC giving a medium chance, 30%, of 94L becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

That water vapour chart you've posted Cookie tells the story. Though 94L has decent spin, it's struggled to maintain much convection due to dry air. There is a lot of dry air to 94L's north, and this is slowing development. Whether 94L can moisten it's own environment and go on to become a tropical depression remains to be seen, but I think dry air could well be a limiting factor even if this system goes on to become a tropical cyclone.

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