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London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

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The 18z GFS seems to be coming into agreement with the BBC/Met Office forecast of some light ppn for us tomorrow afternoon, so we could see a covering from that.

Still waiting for it to load beyond Sat 18z, but seems a slight upgrade for our area so far.

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The 18z GFS seems to be coming into agreement with the BBC/Met Office forecast of some light ppn for us tomorrow afternoon, so we could see a covering from that.

Still waiting for it to load beyond Sat 18z, but seems a slight upgrade for our area so far.

Yup light ppn tomorrow afternoon, after that its rain, rain and more rain.

Even our F.I Low pressure system on wednesday is further north, bringing us more rain.

well im going go to bed, and dream of a pattern shift in the models. :whistling:

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Hmmm....not so sure thats quite correct tegreat316, whilst it is a touch further north the track of the low is a good one as we get a big drag back of cold on the back side of the low and the front remains potent, we'd probably get a good whack of snow on the backend of that system on Wednesday...

However for the most part the 18z is rain.

However the NAE is still MUCH further south for Sunday, and whilst I'm waiting for the frames to come out total precip shows the highest totals very close to London upto 48hrs, its just a matter of what form the precip is in?

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Guest FireStorm

18z NAE looking very nice for Sunday for those in Essex. GFS is having none of it. FI @ T36? cc_confused.gif

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I really not sure about the latest outputs, its all still up in the air at the moment, feels like I've been saying that for weeks. wallbash.gif

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18z NAE looking very nice for Sunday for those in Essex. GFS is having none of it. FI @ T36? cc_confused.gif

They have exactly the same evolution just the NAE is about a hundred miles further south!

Hopefully they will have it resolved by the time we get to tomorrow...

A VERY wet week coming up if the models are right, flooding for the south whilst the Midlands get buried, we'd be the first part of the day after tomorrow, they'd have the second half :)

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They have exactly the same evolution just the NAE is about a hundred miles further south!

Hopefully they will have it resolved by the time we get to tomorrow...

A VERY wet week coming up if the models are right, flooding for the south whilst the Midlands get buried, we'd be the first part of the day after tomorrow, they'd have the second half :)

So you think there is very little chance then? what sort of shift would we need for us to get some action? apart from Ruddy floods.mad.gif

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Guest FireStorm

The rate the snow carries on further north, I'm due to catch a train to Manchester for Friday 26th. Safer option to hire a snowplough I'm thinking

oops just seen your post KW.. hahaha @ Day after tomorrow.

*heads to his local library*

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Still plenty of time for the patern to be shifted East by 80 miles leaving us burried! How often have we seen the reality be 100 miles further East? Usualy when a Northerly gets shunted down the North sea. Surely it will happen in our favour one day?

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So you think there is very little chance then? what sort of shift would we need for us to get some action? apart from Ruddy floods.mad.gif

I think our main risk is sadly going to be reduced to maybe brief leading edge and back edge stuff, I suspect if either the 12z ECM or the 12/18z GFS came off, it'd be 90% rain and 10% snow...

May need to watch our friends up in the Midlands get nailed this time round...but still time for things to change...

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Hmmm....not so sure thats quite correct tegreat316, whilst it is a touch further north the track of the low is a good one as we get a big drag back of cold on the back side of the low and the front remains potent, we'd probably get a good whack of snow on the backend of that system on Wednesday...

However for the most part the 18z is rain.

However the NAE is still MUCH further south for Sunday, and whilst I'm waiting for the frames to come out total precip shows the highest totals very close to London upto 48hrs, its just a matter of what form the precip is in?

Hew KW,

Wed's Lp is i think the 4th LP system in a row that has moved further north, the one from yesterday was forecasted as a channel low, so is the one forecasted for sunday/monday. Usually in these setups you find the pattern shift south, but it keps on shifting north leaving us in the south east in the warm sector.

Yes wednesdays LP as shown on the 18z could give us backedge snow what was showing on the 12z was much more impressive.

post-10842-12666180749317_thumb.png

post-10842-12666180990317_thumb.png

I hope the NAE has the setup more correct, could be some nice snow for north of london :)

post-10842-12666182515517_thumb.gif

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I think our main risk is sadly going to be reduced to maybe brief leading edge and back edge stuff, I suspect if either the 12z ECM or the 12/18z GFS came off, it'd be 90% rain and 10% snow...

May need to watch our friends up in the Midlands get nailed this time round...but still time for things to change...

But as the guy above said, how would a 80 mile shift east effect the weather pattern? would that really make that bigger difference as to our snow prospects? is this very unlikely? sorry for all the questions, I'm still learning.cool.gif

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But as the guy above said, how would a 80 mile shift east effect the weather pattern? would that really make that bigger difference as to our snow prospects? is this very unlikely? sorry for all the questions, I'm still learning.cool.gif

Our best chance on the south coast would be for one of the Low pressure systems to only clip the south coast. we want to stay on the northern side of the low so the warmer air doesent get mixed in. Even in this set up it can still be marginal right on the coast due to the modified air coming of the sea.

If you look at the above charts i posted, you see the difference with the wednesdays LP system being forcasted. the 12z shows us on the northern side of the low where the 18z shows us on the southern side. one brings rain, the other we have a good shout of snow

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This might be a bit of a ramble...

As an unabashed snow and cold fan this winter has been a good one. Hell, I have had to wear crampons in Surrey just to get down the hill. And this was not up on the Downs but on the pavements in town (not that you could really see them at the time). Two weekends back I took one of the children to a sports event really out in the sticks and there were still the remnants of piles of snow stacked up in the car park from 4 weeks previously. Grubby and sad, but still there (the snow I mean).

What has really impacted on me this year is that last Feb when we had the heavy snow my youngest was becoming increasingly ill and despite taking him out and going sledging and building snowmen, he hated the snow. Turned out he had a brain tumour, diagnosed just after his 6th birthday. All very terrifying but he came through it and all is now well. In this year's snow he has been out on the sled, playing in the snow, doing snowball fights, laughing and throwing himself about. Before the winter started I was not looking forward to the snow, I guess because I had associated it with his illness. Seeing how he enjoyed it though I am fully restored as a fanatic, but with a very real sense of proportion. If it snows, good. If not, so what.

The other thing is that I am quite keen now for it to warm up. Not sure whether this is to do with the above or because I am getting old!

AS

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

The SE is never that good a location for snow from a southerly tracking low that approaches from the SW. We inevitably end up on the east/SE'ern side of the low pressure where there is warm air advection. I remember Feb '09, after our mammoth snow event from the streamer there were several snow events later during that week that dumped huge amounts of snow over parts of the SW, Wales and the Midlands while we had cold rain. These situations are very frustrating as often we are very cose to the snow, but just that bit too far SE where the milder dew points and upper's are. Luton was hit by heavy snow during that spell, while London and the rest of the SE had rain. Thats how close it was

Just copied this post over here from the last regional thread because it sums up very very well why this pattern is so relatively poor for this region and why I have been hoping for a pressure build to the north to start squeezing these annoying lows out of the way and bring back the upper cold low dewpoints of last week with crisp skies, north easterly winds (instaead of cyclonic westerlies) and non marginal snow showers

Lots of wind and cold rain with a few blobs of sleet, which is all that is really on offer, at best is just an improved version of the usual winter zonality we have endured in recent winters. Granted, it is quite an improvement on that! but against the potential that the continuing -AO and blocking to the north can produce I think it is pretty disappointing return. Feb 2005 was a much milder winter than this one, and even with a much warmer europe, at least the promise for the second half of Fen that year was much much better than this squib weather.

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I'm going to organise a SE thread outing to the Midlands this week if anyone is interested?

This might be a bit of a ramble...

As an unabashed snow and cold fan this winter has been a good one. Hell, I have had to wear crampons in Surrey just to get down the hill. And this was not up on the Downs but on the pavements in town (not that you could really see them at the time). Two weekends back I took one of the children to a sports event really out in the sticks and there were still the remnants of piles of snow stacked up in the car park from 4 weeks previously. Grubby and sad, but still there (the snow I mean).

What has really impacted on me this year is that last Feb when we had the heavy snow my youngest was becoming increasingly ill and despite taking him out and going sledging and building snowmen, he hated the snow. Turned out he had a brain tumour, diagnosed just after his 6th birthday. All very terrifying but he came through it and all is now well. In this year's snow he has been out on the sled, playing in the snow, doing snowball fights, laughing and throwing himself about. Before the winter started I was not looking forward to the snow, I guess because I had associated it with his illness. Seeing how he enjoyed it though I am fully restored as a fanatic, but with a very real sense of proportion. If it snows, good. If not, so what.

The other thing is that I am quite keen now for it to warm up. Not sure whether this is to do with the above or because I am getting old!

AS

Thanks for sharing that, a very touching story. Things like this put things into perspective! If it rains all week so what it's just the weather worse things happen in life!

We should all realise that we love snow in this country because its so rare. I have family in Norway and they hate the snow because of the time it takes to clear the driveways etc and put snow chains on when it get realy deep. I think we have been spoilt this year. I expect the majority of people on this thread either drive or can aford a train ticket so why not take a trip up the M1 50 miles midweek? If you love snow that much and can afford it then stay in a b&b on the south pennines for a night and soak it all up! I went to Oslo to see snow in December!

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However unlikely it is I'm keeping the faith, there is time for change which is the main thing, I really hate the rain though.

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I'm going to organise a SE thread outing to the Midlands this week if anyone is interested?

Do that! Because it may snow here when you visit them! :D :D

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Am I the only one in the SE who is looking forward to some warmer, spring like weather? (although that said, I wouldn't grumble at one more snow fest whistling.gif ) But seriously, I have never known such a cold, depressing, lack of crisp clear sunny days Winter. Roll on Spring.... warm days, lighter evenings, blossom, spring flowers, the smell of cut grass...... never thought I would be looking forward to the back of Winter!!

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What is seriously going to happen this weekend is anyone guess!!

Seems loads of confusion about on here but the BBC do have snow for our area tomo afternoon.

So there picking something up! Good luck everyone!! Snow event (possibility!) (again!)

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Ah well, I don't mind a bit of rain now and again, the north is normally far superior in the winter, we are far, far, far better placed for the summer. interesting compromise.

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The NMM seems quite keen on showers breaking out quite widely across our region, in fact across the south in general. I'd imagine in heavy showers they'd be as snow, probably a sleety mix in the lighter ones.

Beyond that and the models are amazingly still quite a mess but we shall see!

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What is seriously going to happen this weekend is anyone guess!!

Seems loads of confusion about on here but the BBC do have snow for our area tomo afternoon.

So there picking something up! Good luck everyone!! Snow event (possibility!) (again!)

They do, but they're not expecting it to amount to anything apart from perhaps Kent who may see a temporary covering later on.

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