3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 10

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[jaynemc]

Hi everyone,

Had quiet a beefy snow shower an hr ago, settled well until it moved away and what was left behind rapidly melted !!!

But looking at the radar there's still a few beefy showers to follow to the south of London, coming from the west, so fingers crossed we have a few more :-)

[hire17]

Scattered showers of snow popping up on extra radar. Scooting through Norfolk W-E relatively quick moving though. Two have hit Norwich in the last 45 mins

[Ben_Cambs]

I would take this NAE chart for Sunday now!

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/19/basis12/ukuk/prty/10022112_1912.gif

Backed up by the FAX chart for that aswell:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=48&carte=2000

528 DAM line runs right through the centre of our region....

[saint]

I would take this NAE chart for Sunday now!

http://expert.weathe...022112_1912.gif

Backed up by the FAX chart for that aswell:

http://www.meteociel...h=48&carte=2000

528 DAM line runs right through the centre of our region....

I wouldn't, thats rain over me. :) Sometimes Snowman, I really do not like you! :lol:

[John London]

I would take this NAE chart for Sunday now!

http://expert.weathe...022112_1912.gif

Backed up by the FAX chart for that aswell:

http://www.meteociel...h=48&carte=2000

528 DAM line runs right through the centre of our region....

If I was you Snowman I would seriously consider changing my name to Rain Man, and I mean that in the nicest possible way, not in the film of the same name way.

[icy toes]

Well, the blob has has hit me - started off as hail pellets and has now turned into a complete white-out with massive flakes. It's only been snowing a few minutes but everything's covered already. Let's hope it doesn't thaw.

Snowman - that NAE chart for Sunday looks tastier than my dinner!!

Edited February 19, 2010 by icy toes

[Ben_Cambs]

Snowing outside

[SnowAngel]

Can anyone offer me the tiniest ray of hope for snow in Chesham in the Chilterns? Suffering from being missed by miles and downgrade-itis at the moment.... :(

[Mrsf16]

Loving those charts Snowman!! Glad you've got the white stuff!!!

[John London]

Snowing outside

I should hope so, inside and it can get nasty.

[Ben_Cambs]

I should hope so, inside and it can get nasty.

Its stopped now anyway, was wet snow!

[Tim Bland]

National forecast says snow sunday and so does the NAE / Fax charts. Local bbc forecast says dry and sunny! Can't believe there has been so many short term changes to the forecasts. Yesterday They where saying tommorow would be dry and now there is a chance of a covering of snow!

How much is their super computer worth? Monday is rain or snow so they are sitting on the fence...probably the best place at the moment!

IMO appart from Northamptonshire and extreme north of the region Sunday will be the last snow event for the area for a while, maybe sleet Mon night before it clears.

[Ben_Cambs]

National forecast says snow sunday and so does the NAE / Fax charts. Local bbc forecast says dry and sunny! Can't believe there has been so many short term changes to the forecasts. Yesterday They where saying tommorow would be dry and now there is a chance of a covering of snow!

How much is their super computer worth? Monday is rain or snow so they are sitting on the fence...probably the best place at the moment!

IMO appart from Northamptonshire and extreme north of the region Sunday will be the last snow event for the area for a while, maybe sleet Mon night before it clears.

I dont know about Monday, still is all up in the air over what the PPN will actually fall as. The further north and west, the better chance you will see something more wintry. GFS Op run shows the colder uppers filtering back in after on Tuesday, and then it shows a snow event Tuesday night into Wednesday for a lot of our region. Lots to look out for over the next few days IMO.

The models are very volatile at the moment and are expected to do so. Personally I think next week will contain plenty of weather; rain/sleet/snow/hail + maybe even the chance of thunder

[huntso]

Reckoned a dry day Sunday on the Look East weather

On that note, where is Julie? too upset to work I reckon after all the less than flattering comments on here last week or has Jim Bacon eaten her

[Ben_Cambs]

Reckoned a dry day Sunday on the Look East weather

On that note, where is Julie? too upset to work I reckon after all the less than flattering comments on here last week or has Jim Bacon eaten her

Haha maybe!

I've been looking on the other threads on the story was the same. The Regional forecasts today were different to the national forecasts.

The BBC forecasts I believe use the NAE model for their forecasts. These charts only go out to 48 hours. Stark contrast that the BBC Look East go for a dry Sunday while this NAE chart at T+48 says different:

Potentially snow on Sunday for about half the region, Im hoping the next set of NAE runs shows the snow risk a little further south so the southern half of the region comes more into play.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I can confirm the snow/hail reports from Norwich- a couple of heavy showers sprouted up to the west of Norwich (homegrown, despite the relatively weak February sun) and headed over. The first was of heavy hail with some tail end snow, the second was of snow. However, accumulations were limited, just a dusting on some surfaces here at UEA.

[bluearmy]

latest NAE shows near on half an inch of precip for the london area through sunday with northern parts of the home counties almost dry. have to wait for the individual charts to come out now but shows how troughs will change location run to run.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201002191800&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Edited February 19, 2010 by bluearmy

[BarnetBlizzard]

latest NAE shows near on half an inch of precip for the london area through sunday with northern parts of the home counties almost dry. have to wait for the individual charts to come out now but shows how troughs will change location run to run.

http://www.weatheron...0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Wow, could London be lucky for once. Don't worry it will move further north

[Ben_Cambs]

Wow, could London be lucky for once. Don't worry it will move further north

IMO you will see something tomorrow, we will just see!

Latest NAE at T+36: http://www.weatheron...&ARCHIV=0&WMO=.

T+42, upgrade for this region, main energy of PPN just North of London: http://www.weatheron...V=0&ZOOM=0&WMO=

Edit: GFS 18z shows a decent snow event next Wednesday. If I lived in the far south I would be concerned because of the rainfall amounts been shown! Oh and another one on Thursday aswell, and it looks like another one next Friday aswell

Edited February 19, 2010 by Snowman0697

[saint]

IMO you will see something tomorrow, we will just see!

Latest NAE at T+36: http://www.weatheron...&ARCHIV=0&WMO=.

T+42, upgrade for this region, main energy of PPN just North of London: http://www.weatheron...V=0&ZOOM=0&WMO=

How about St. Albans mate? With our 'snow shield' which doesn't work!

[Ben_Cambs]

How about St. Albans mate? With our 'snow shield' which doesn't work!

Well NAE suggests snow for most in this region on Sunday, so I guess the snow shield doesnt work

[saint]

Well NAE suggests snow for most in this region on Sunday, so I guess the snow shield doesnt work

You wish we had one don't you! :)

[Tim Bland]

Well NAE suggests snow for most in this region on Sunday, so I guess the snow shield doesnt work

BBC forecast going for rain on sunday for everyone south of Yourkshire so I wouldn't get your hopes up. They showed temps of 6c for our area. Its so confusing at the moment at least the BBC / Meto forecasts are usualy in line with NAE output but even these are different!

As for next week we miss out to the west mids AGAIN!

Still plenty of time for the patern to be shifted East by 80 miles leaving us burried! How often have we seen the reality be 100 miles further East? Usualy when a Northerly gets shunted down the North sea. Surely it will happen in our favour one day?

Local bbc forecast says a beautiful sunny day on sunday....followed 5 seconds later by the national forecast which says RAIN or Sleet!

Edited February 19, 2010 by Tim Bland

[Ben_Cambs]

BBC forecast going for rain on sunday for everyone south of Yourkshire so I wouldn't get your hopes up. They showed temps of 6c for our area. Its so confusing at the moment at least the BBC / Meto forecasts are usualy in line with NAE output but even these are different!

As for next week we miss out to the west mids AGAIN!

Still plenty of time for the patern to be shifted East by 80 miles leaving us burried! How often have we seen the reality be 100 miles further East? Usualy when a Northerly gets shunted down the North sea. Surely it will happen in our favour one day?

I think its more of the South East that miss out, Out of the 5 possible snow events next week () on GFS 18z We are involved in 2 or 3 of them, so its not a lose-lose situation for our region anyway. The South East would get battered by rain and probably floods on those charts. Im looking forward to next week and I still think we will see snow! On those charts from Wednesday till Friday places North of the M4 corridor would see snow

Edited February 19, 2010 by Snowman0697