East & Central Pacific Invest Thread 2010

[Cookie]

This thread is for discussing invests as and when they form.

90E

[kold weather]

No sooner has this thread been created then 90E has been dropped from the NRL, actually I'm a little surprised this wasn't 90C but there you go!

Still such disturbances are always possible in an El Nino Spring and wouldn't surprise me to see another invest in either of the basins before the season offcailly starts, though to actually get a system is rather uncommon, esp in EPAC.

[Cookie]

typical eh! och well least the thread is ready

[Somerset Squall]

And it needs to be used again! The same area of disturbed weather has been flagged up as invest 90C. Convection is deep but not well organised at present, though there appears to be signs of rotation evident in satellite loops. 90C is a mere 2 degrees north of the equator and unless it moves a little further northwards then the system may not get adequate spin to become a tropical depression. Shear appears to be low and sea temps are above average so formation of a TD cannot be ruled out here.

CPHC are interested in this and are issuing outlooks on the invest, indiciating a low chance of TC formation over the next day or so at present.

[Cookie]

90E

[Somerset Squall]

90E is very disorganised at present but with low shear and hot waters then at least some slow development is likely. Models are keen on development, if not in the East Pacific then in the Caribbean.

Model Tracks:

What are the NHC saying Cookie? For some still unknown reason I can't access the website.

[kold weather]

90E is showing a big convective burst at the moment wand given conditions aloft right now I'd expect a tropical depression to develop within the next 24hrs. The ECM doesn't really develop it because it is too close to theb coast through at least 48hrs andn ifn the system develops towards the northern edge of the convective ball than I expect then the ECM certainly could have the right idea....

Probably end up top end TS IMO before any Mexico landfall however exact location of the LLC is going to be very important in that factor.

Sorry this isn't a longer post, but my computer is acting up big time today!

[Cookie]

90E is looking a lot better tonight

[Somerset Squall]

90E continues to steadily organise. The LLC is still rather broad, but convection is showing signs of consolidating around it. Shear is low, waters hot, and upper level outflow is good in all directions. This should serve to tighten the LLC, and this system looks likely to become a tropical depression in the 24-48hr time period. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system.

[Cookie]

[Cookie]

Code red now for 90E

[Somerset Squall]

Looks on the verge of becoming the first tropical depression in the East Pacific this year. Good amount of convection over a LLC that is looking more compact than the previous few days. Winds have reached 30kts- so the upgrade should be called soon.

[Cookie]

agreed

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 PM PDT FRI MAY 28 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED

WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN A

HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAINS ORGANIZED...

THERE ARE NO EVIDENCES OF A WELL DEFINED CENTER AT THIS TIME.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL

DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME

LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A

HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY SQUALLS ARE ALREADY

APPROACHING THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA AND THE AREA

OF HEAVY RAINS EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS EL SALVADOR. THESE RAINS ARE

LIKELY TO CONTINUE AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS

AND MUD SLIDES IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[kold weather]

Very big convective burst has gone up now just to the NE of the LLC though without Vis.imagery its a little difficult to know exactly where the system is located.

Still I think an upgrade is coming today and I suspect its probably a tropical depression right now. Winds of 30kts with a big convective blow-up probably means the system has enough time over water to get upto 40-45kts I'd imagine. Conditions aloft are decent enough, and the system seems to have finally focused in convergence around the center rather then just being broadly high (which means LLC and convective bursts compete with each other.)

The center does seem to have reloacted somewhat east compared to about 18hrs ago which puts it closer to the shore. The GFDL now takes this ashore within the next 24hrs though that possibly maybe a little on the quick side. Still the general idea is the system should now be slowly heading back NE/ENE towards Central America.

[Somerset Squall]

90E became Tropical Storm Agatha.

Invest 91E has formed much further to the west in the open Eastern Pacific, around 115W. The disturbance consists of little more than a region of disorganised convection at present, and further development is likely to be quite slow. Sea temps aren't amazing and are much lower just north of the system. 91E is currently heading west-northwest.

[Cookie]

91E

gone as well

BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_DEACTIVATE_ep912010.ren

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201006020031

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

[Cookie]

We now have 92E

[Cookie]

92E

[Somerset Squall]

92E became TD 02E.

Invest 93E formed and became Tropical Storm Blas.

Invest 94E has formed off the south coast of Mexico, several hundred miles southeast of TS Blas. Convection appears to be organising around an increasingly tight area of turning. The convection is not all that deep at present and appears to be cycling rather than persistant. However, conditions appear favourable for further development with low shear and very warm sea temps. This suggests at least some slow development could occur, and a tropical depression may form in around 48hrs time. The models seem quite keen on eventually making this invest a tropical depression.

[Somerset Squall]

94E became Hurricane Celia.

Invest 95E has formed to the east of Hurricane Celia. The disturbance is very broad, but appears to gradually be consolidating. Convection is gradually contacting around an area of broad rotation. Conditions are favourable for development with low shear and warm waters beneath the system. This system could become a tropical depression in about 48hrs time based on current organisational speed/trends.

[Somerset Squall]

95E is getting better organised. The LLC has consolidated further over the last 12hrs in particular, and the convection is beginning to contract towards this centre. I think 95E will become a tropical depression this evening or by tomorrow morning by the looks of things.

[Cookie]

95E

the East Pacific is on fire at the moment another named system on the way by the looks of things!!

[Somerset Squall]

Certainly is, perhaps it's the hang over from El Nino. With La Nina developing, the East Pacific is forecast to be below average in activity. Well if things keep going at this rate then that certainly won't be true!!

[Cookie]

Certainly is, perhaps it's the hang over from El Nino. With La Nina developing, the East Pacific is forecast to be below average in activity. Well if things keep going at this rate then that certainly won't be true!!

according to Joe B its African waves that are going in to the East Pacific at the moment. Which is quite interesting.

[Cookie]

91C

we have an invest but it dosen't look to great at the moment