Spring / Summer 2010

[AderynCoch]

August 2008 was very unsettled until the last week- low pressure and fronts moving across at regular intervals resulting in well above average rainfall everywhere. The warm settled spell occurred in the last week, which ironically was the dullest of the month, and had some drizzle especially in western areas. It could be a case of selectively remembering the last week.

Possibly - warmth was at such a premium during that summer that any warmth that did manifest itself was noteworthy! I admit that August 2008 may have been more unsettled overall, but August 2009 certainly provided worthy competition in the cyclonic summer-destroying stakes.

If tutiempo.net is anything to go by, 2008 had more rainy days than 2009 but not significantly so (24 to 18 at Liverpool AP, 25 to 22 at Crosby). What does surprise me is how high the monthly average was for August 2009 - higher than the CET mean of 16.6C (16.8C at Liverpool AP, 17.0C at Crosby). I have to say I don't remember 19th August 2009 being warm despite Crosby logging 25.1C. It must be the contrast with other parts of the country (and the psychological effects I mentioned) which drew my attention to the general lacklustreness of the month, whereas August 2008 was uniformly bland across the county. In both cases though, it was above-average minima which boosted the overall monthly averages - and made the months themselves look more impressive than they actually were.

I can't vouch for Liverpool AP's reliability, but Crosby is an official Met Office station.

[LomondSnowstorm]

As Richard Angwin summed it up last September:

June was fantastic, July was absolutely awful, and August was good. June was an excellent month after a hot start, then a cool refreshing few days, plenty of convective days and warm sunshine especially in the final third. Although in July we had thunderstorms and torrential downpours which I love in summer, we also had Tm muck which I despise between. Then August produced the most anticyclonic weather of the summer though split between sunshine and cloud. The only heavy rain in August came with strong winds on the 28th.

Typical washout on my birthday

Agree with that though, except the first week of July in southeast Ireland was rather nice, mainly dry and not too hot or cool.

[Milhouse]

it's early february. what is the point of any conjecture about spring let alone summer. it's the same every year, and it's a waste of time, even from the meto. sorry, bad day

Considering an Autumn Winter thread was started in eary July i think one is well overdue. After all it will be March in under 3 weeks :lol:

I'm predicting a summer which will continue the gradual improving trend since 2007, so it will be slightly better than last year although as has been said there is much doubt over whether last summer can be classed as another washout or actually quite a decent one.

I think were really overdue a good July. The past 3 have been reallly poor and although July 2008 saw the only meaningful hot spell of the summer the rest of the month was mostly cool and unsettled.

Edited February 10, 2010 by Milhouse

[Thundery wintry showers]

Depends on how you define "good" and "bad". I admit I got absolutely roasted alive on here last summer for daring to admit that I enjoyed last July's weather in Norwich, so I was clearly in a small minority re. enjoying the frequent convective activity and slightly above average sunshine, but the point is that not all of us agree that it was a bad month, at least in parts of E England & N Scotland. For western areas, where it was dull, no arguments.

Julys 2007 and 2008 on the other hand, no arguments there.

Value judgements aside, though, I think it's fair to say that we are overdue a dry July after three exceptionally wet ones.

[conor123]

Never managed a single Thunderstorm last summer from what i remember which is a first for here, all we got was some distant lightning in Late June from dying CB's.

After a fairly mixed summer with two AWFUL ones prior to it i think we are entitled to a good summer this year.

It doesn't even have to be hot, a long spell between 21-25c with the odd 26-30c spell and sunny days with warm evenings then nice and cool at night would do me fine.

Any rain can come on Monday, Wednesday and Friday Mornings when im in college

[Derp Patrol]

Warmth is not the biggest issue for me, sunshine is. If there are clear blue skies, then generally we will reach the high 20s without needing a southerly or southeasterly wind. Most days last July were average temperature wise down here, about 21C-24C almost everyday, the dissapointing thing was the large amounts of rain, and the lack of any very warm or even hot days save the first few days after the hot end of June spell.

We are due a decent summer, so hopefully we will finally get one, just as we've had a very good winter. Idealy, I would love lots of anyclonic weather bringing clear bue skies and temperatures in the high 20s/ low 30s, with a few spanish plumes and South easterlies to bring the odd 35C day.

Edited February 10, 2010 by robthefool

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think away from the coasts, if it's sunny and there isn't too much wind, the same is true also of northern Britain. Sea breezes sometimes keep coastal fringes a lot cooler, but in the summer months if you've got a high or some slack pressure regime covering the country, and a decent amount of sunshine it will usually shoot up to 20C+ over much of Scotland and northern England. In particular it is notable that on many of those anticyclonic June days, it can be down to 3-6C at night and then rise to around 20-22C during the day.

The main issue there is that sunshine and lack of wind can often be a rare combination in a northern summer.

[Milhouse]

One thing that characterised last summer was the strength of the wind, particularly in August which took the edge off the temperatures quite significantly. We had probably 4/5 very warm/hot days in August and September but each time they were accompanied by a strong southerly wind which did make for a very pleasant day but starved us of the real heat that we had in summers gone by. The maximum temperature here last summer was a rather disappointing 25.6c so i'm hoping to nudge 30c this summer, a very rare occurrence given i live so near the coast.

[lukemc]

Hi,

To start with with official winter coming to an end I should revive this thread with my thoughts on what the forthcoming summer may be like.

Is it true that their is a collaration between cold winters and poor/cool summers? I think I do remember Mr Data stating last year that the statistics show that cold/severe winters are more likely to be followed by below average summers? But personally I do not believe that the winter pattern has any bearing on the pattern for the following summer which is likely to be determined by different factors. Also it is true that we can get quite a few warm and settled days even in so called poor summers. I do think that the coming summer will be warmer than the last, continuing the improving trend (remember last summer was better than 2007 and 2008) and I do think we are due drier summer this year with below average rainfall, and I think we will have a warm to hot July in particular, maybe not as hot as 2006 but pleasant nevertheless (I would go for the hottest July since 2006 with a notable heatwave mid month). I also think that like last summer, most of the rainfall will be convective rather than frontal in nature (unlike the likes of 2007 that had a lot of frontal rainfall leading to devastating flooding), I also think it will be more thundery than the last 3 summers with some quite severe thundery outbreaks in places and more by the way of "Spanish Plume" events bringing MCS thunderstorms to our shores - what do you think - would that make a decent summer?

Luke

[Thundery wintry showers]

Statistically cold snowy winters are more likely to be followed by cool summers but I think much, possibly all, of this is down to the fact that cold snowy winters are more likely on average when the Northern Hemisphere as a whole is cooler.

The winters of 1963 and 1979 were followed by pretty cool summers and there was a notorious example of a cold winter and cold dull wet summer in 1985, particularly across northern Britain. But on the other side of the coin, the snowy winters of 1947 and 1955 were both followed by hot summers. Others were quite mixed, e.g. the cold snowy winter of 1940 was followed by one of the warmest and sunniest Junes on record but then a cool cloudy July.

Then we have the interesting case of 1982- a snowy early winter, a mild late winter, a warm sunny spring (one of the top five sunniest of the last century in England & Wales, and also reasonably sunny in Scotland) and then a rather mediocre summer.

[Weather-history]

I think I do remember Mr Data stating last year that the statistics show that cold/severe winters are more likely to be followed by below average summers?

It was sub 2C CET winters that tended to favour cool summers to follow. 1947 is the real exception to that rule but a good portion of those summers were sub 15C

[Bottesford]

Less rain would be the most important factor for me. The last three July's have been mostly terrible. Two events stick out - July 2007: heading to the pub on a Sat night in the pouring rain with temps around 13c (and so coats needed). No improvement was being forecast either - we were all thoroughly depressed. Precious summertime being lost to awful weather.

July 2009 too: 7 days in Cornwall. Rainfall on 7 days several of which it rained all day non stop. A damp, cold wind blew in off the sea. A real downer it was to say the least.

In a perfect late spring/summer (well my perfect summer) would be:

May - ample sunshine and very little rain. Any rain falling in convective showers courtesy of the one or two northerly or NWly spells. Temps around 20c with the odd cooler and the odd hotter day.

June - mostly unbroken sunshine (especially around the solstice) with next to no rain at all. Temps low to mid 20s by day but cooler at night with fairly 'fresh' conditions early month.

July - mostly unbroken sunshine with rainfall only coming from very infrequent thunderstorms. Temps 25c+ by day (some 30+ too) and nights not falling below 18c (some even warmer).

August - mixture of hot sunshine & thunderstorms so somewhat wetter month. Temps 25c and humid bringing in those big storms. Muggy warm nights.

September - pleasant sunshine slowly ebbing to the _first_ return of Atlantic storms (which I would like gone by early April!). Temps around 20c dropping later in month.

Things I'd ban in summer-

Sub 15c maxima

Sub 12c minima

Low cloud off the North Sea

Winds from east for same reason as above (only SE direction is allowed!)

Atlantic rain storms

Drizzle

Excessive cloud

I don't ask much do I? :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Things I'd ban in summer-

Sub 15c maxima

Sub 12c minima

Low cloud off the North Sea

Winds from east for same reason as above (only SE direction is allowed!)

Atlantic rain storms

Drizzle

Excessive cloud

I don't ask much do I?

Except for the bit about the sub 12C minima, I would give exactly the same list!

My favourite patterns all year around are:

1. anticyclonic with high pressure over and/or to the E of Britain, warm and sunny, sometimes hot in summer, can be associated with occasional thundery outbreaks in summer,

2. cyclonic/westerly with polar maritime influences bringing bright showery weather (as opposed to a conveyor belt of frontal systems),

3. arctic, same type of weather as westerly but colder (NW/N winds in summer half-year, can include unstable NE/E in winter)

I listed those three in the "ideal winter setups" thread and it's the same for summer, except that the relative proportions change- in summer I would want 1 to be at least as common as 2 and 3 combined, while in the other three seasons I would prefer similar amounts of all three.

I must admit I find those "Azores High ridge" dominated spells quite tedious sometimes- they are often dry and reasonably sunny in the SE, including Norwich, but dull and damp further north, and convective potential tends to be zero.

[Derp Patrol]

Less rain would be the most important factor for me. The last three July's have been mostly terrible. Two events stick out - July 2007: heading to the pub on a Sat night in the pouring rain with temps around 13c (and so coats needed). No improvement was being forecast either - we were all thoroughly depressed. Precious summertime being lost to awful weather.

July 2009 too: 7 days in Cornwall. Rainfall on 7 days several of which it rained all day non stop. A damp, cold wind blew in off the sea. A real downer it was to say the least.

In a perfect late spring/summer (well my perfect summer) would be:

May - ample sunshine and very little rain. Any rain falling in convective showers courtesy of the one or two northerly or NWly spells. Temps around 20c with the odd cooler and the odd hotter day.

June - mostly unbroken sunshine (especially around the solstice) with next to no rain at all. Temps low to mid 20s by day but cooler at night with fairly 'fresh' conditions early month.

July - mostly unbroken sunshine with rainfall only coming from very infrequent thunderstorms. Temps 25c+ by day (some 30+ too) and nights not falling below 18c (some even warmer).

August - mixture of hot sunshine & thunderstorms so somewhat wetter month. Temps 25c and humid bringing in those big storms. Muggy warm nights.

September - pleasant sunshine slowly ebbing to the _first_ return of Atlantic storms (which I would like gone by early April!). Temps around 20c dropping later in month.

Things I'd ban in summer-

Sub 15c maxima

Sub 12c minima

Low cloud off the North Sea

Winds from east for same reason as above (only SE direction is allowed!)

Atlantic rain storms

Drizzle

Excessive cloud

I don't ask much do I?

*licks lips*

I especially agree with you about the warm nights - it's great when you can walk outside in shorts and a T-Shirt

at 11pm. Thankfully nights below 12C are quite rare down here in the 'Heathrow oven' after June. Just 2 months untill May now! probably my favourite month of the year where we can see the first real heat of the year

[Ben_Cambs]

*licks lips*

I especially agree with you about the warm nights - it's great when you can walk outside in shorts and a T-Shirt

at 11pm. Thankfully nights below 12C are quite rare down here in the 'Heathrow oven' after June. Just 2 months untill May now! probably my favourite month of the year where we can see the first real heat of the year

As much as like warmth I hate Warm nights! :lol: My ideal summer day would be temperatures around 25C and a decent amount of sunshine, followed by one massive Thunderstorm! I like cool nights all year round, a couple of nights last year didnt get below 18C and its not nice when you try to sleep!

[damianslaw]

A slow start to spring 2010 probably won't be until the last third of March we see any spring like weather. Thereafter probably rather average, and possibly rather wet/cyclonic.

[sebinnis]

French forecasters estimate Spring - at least - would be "normal" (in western Europe) without much specificities, as for Summer, they don't know what can happen; one would expect a hot summer because of this very cold winter, but as you know there's no logic in meteorology

(sorry, but where can I put in my profile that I am French? thank you)

[North-Easterly Blast]

It was sub 2C CET winters that tended to favour cool summers to follow. 1947 is the real exception to that rule but a good portion of those summers were sub 15C

You can extend the cold winter threshold to sub 3.0*C winters. Of all the winters with a CET less than 3.0*C in the 1900s only 1947 was followed by a summer with a CET greater than 16*C, and in the 1800s only five sub 3*C winters were followed by a 16+*C summer.

Concluding this winter which looks likely to have a CET around 2.5*C, although nothing can be ruled out, I would say that this summer is unlikely to be a warm one overall. There may be hot spells, but looking back at records I'd say that an average to cool summer overall is a more likely outcome, and the chances of a cool summer (sub 15*C) I would say are higher than in the last 20 years or so.

All of this can be summed up in that cold winters overall historically have often been followed by cold springs, and below average spring months often follow cold winter months, and the fact that this cool pattern often repeats itself in the summer.

Edited February 26, 2010 by North-Easterly Blast

[lukemc]

You can extend the cold winter threshold to sub 3.0*C winters. Of all the winters with a CET less than 3.0*C in the 1900s only 1947 was followed by a summer with a CET greater than 16*C, and in the 1800s only five sub 3*C winters were followed by a 16+*C summer.

Concluding this winter which looks likely to have a CET around 2.5*C, although nothing can be ruled out, I would say that this summer is unlikely to be a warm one overall. There may be hot spells, but looking back at records I'd say that an average to cool summer overall is a more likely outcome, and the chances of a cool summer (sub 15*C) I would say are higher than in the last 20 years or so.

All of this can be summed up in that cold winters overall historically have often been followed by cold springs, and below average spring months often follow cold winter months, and the fact that this cool pattern often repeats itself in the summer.

Talking of that what was the summer of 1991 like following the cold spell in 1991 wasn't that quite warm overall? And 1997, following the realitivly cold winter of 1996-97 had a very warm second half? Does an average to cool summer normally mean an unsettled summer, or can it also be rather settled with warm days and cool nights? I would disagree on an unsettled summer being the form horse this year however as I think that the blocking patterns could continue into the summer months which could keep the Atlantic out and lead the settled and rather warm weather by day.

Luke

[Thundery wintry showers]

There isn't much of a correlation between temperature, sunshine and rainfall during June, because the Atlantic often tends to be relatively slow, especially early in the month, and this opens up the possibility of cool northerly/north-westerly types that can be sunny and dry if high pressure is nearby, or bright and showery if not. Slack cyclonic regimes can be cool and showery but also bright.

In July and August the jet is typically stronger and so cool weather tends to arise mainly from "Atlantic" regimes which are usually cloudy with bands of rain moving across the country. So in high summer, if it's cool, chances are it will be dull and wet as well.

However there's a strong likelihood that main reason why cold winters are correlated with cool summers is that they are more likely to occur, on average, when the Northern Hemisphere goes through phases of below-average annual temperatures. At the moment the Northern Hemisphere is still recording near-record warmth so I don't think this cold winter will have much of a bearing on the upcoming summer. It may well lead into a colder-than-average spring, but the same happened in 1955 and all of a sudden hot dry sunny weather kicked off in July that year.

Summer 1991 had a notably cool June which was cloudy and wet for most of the country, and had unusually widespread snowfalls in the first week, it then had a warm, fairly changeable July, and a warm dry August, and many areas had above average sunshine in both months but not outstandingly so.

[damianslaw]

There isn't much of a correlation between temperature, sunshine and rainfall during June, because the Atlantic often tends to be relatively slow, especially early in the month, and this opens up the possibility of cool northerly/north-westerly types that can be sunny and dry if high pressure is nearby, or bright and showery if not. Slack cyclonic regimes can be cool and showery but also bright.

In July and August the jet is typically stronger and so cool weather tends to arise mainly from "Atlantic" regimes which are usually cloudy with bands of rain moving across the country. So in high summer, if it's cool, chances are it will be dull and wet as well.

However there's a strong likelihood that main reason why cold winters are correlated with cool summers is that they are more likely to occur, on average, when the Northern Hemisphere goes through phases of below-average annual temperatures. At the moment the Northern Hemisphere is still recording near-record warmth so I don't think this cold winter will have much of a bearing on the upcoming summer. It may well lead into a colder-than-average spring, but the same happened in 1955 and all of a sudden hot dry sunny weather kicked off in July that year.

Two more recent fairly cold springs (especially first halves) were 1996 and 2006, however, both these were followed by a notable warmth in the following summers, in the case of 06 record warmth in July. There is therefore a strong correlation of fairly cold winters delivering at least cold first halves to spring, however, I wouldn't necessarily say they are followed by colder than normal summers. Recent good spring weather i.e. April 07 and May 08 has been followed by dire summer weather, I'm always unnerved when we see very early summer warmth in April and May, not a good omen for the summer, much like early cold winter weather in november.

Summer 1991 had a notably cool June which was cloudy and wet for most of the country, and had unusually widespread snowfalls in the first week, it then had a warm, fairly changeable July, and a warm dry August, and many areas had above average sunshine in both months but not outstandingly so.

Edited February 26, 2010 by damianslaw

[North-Easterly Blast]

Talking of that what was the summer of 1991 like following the cold spell in 1991 wasn't that quite warm overall? And 1997, following the realitivly cold winter of 1996-97 had a very warm second half? Does an average to cool summer normally mean an unsettled summer, or can it also be rather settled with warm days and cool nights? I would disagree on an unsettled summer being the form horse this year however as I think that the blocking patterns could continue into the summer months which could keep the Atlantic out and lead the settled and rather warm weather by day.

Luke

No, winter 1996-97 wasn't that cold a winter. It was average overall, though it had a pretty cold December and a cold first half to January, then went belly up for the cold never to return and February was ridiculously mild and so was March. Winter 1996-97 was certainly milder overall than this winter (2009-10) and the one last year.

Talking of that what was the summer of 1991 like following the cold spell in 1991 wasn't that quite warm overall? And 1997, following the realitivly cold winter of 1996-97 had a very warm second half? Does an average to cool summer normally mean an unsettled summer, or can it also be rather settled with warm days and cool nights? I would disagree on an unsettled summer being the form horse this year however as I think that the blocking patterns could continue into the summer months which could keep the Atlantic out and lead the settled and rather warm weather by day.

Luke

Whilst rightly 1990-91 did have a notably cold spell in the first half of Feb but it suddenly turned milder around the 21st and there was no further cold spell that winter and March was very mild. Putting 1995-96 in, which had a cold March on top, the 1995-96 winter was by far the coldest extended winter we have had at least up until this present winter since the mid 1980s.

Getting on to summer 1991, June was very cool, in fact among the ten coolest Junes ever, then July and August were pretty warm overall, and 1991 did have a warm dry late summer, with a dry August and the first half of September was also very warm and dry leading to Sep 1991 being quite warm overall too.

[AderynCoch]

I've never noticed a correlation between a cold winter and subsequent cold summer, other than years of yore being colder overall than recent times.

Following a winter such as this, will the jet stream have to play catch-up (having moved so far south) or does such an anomaly tend to disappear quite quickly?

[Mark Bayley]

Well it seems spring is not exactly starting on a mild note! Not if the ECM or the GFS was correct. It must turn milder soon I'm yet to record a day above 9c since since December 9th!

Edited February 27, 2010 by mark bayley

[Thundery wintry showers]

While I agree that cold early springs don't correlate with cold summers (except in the "it's more likely to be cold if it's cold all year around in the Northern Hemisphere" sense), I don't think spring hot spells do either. Indeed, many of our hot summers have been preceded by one or more spring hot spells- try 1947, 1976, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1995, 2003, and to a limited extent in 1997 and 2006 also. But on the other hand, not all (I don't think there were any notable spring hot spells in 1983 for instance, and I'm not sure if the warm April in 1955 managed any).