Spring / Summer 2010

[BornFromTheVoid]

It has been a fairly poor July so far for Ireland, with temperatures a little above average. Most of the western half of the country has already had it's entire months rainfall, with planty more today and the coming days looking likely. Claremorris has already recorded 168% of it's monthly rain, mainly thanks to 55mm last Saturday.

[Weather-history]

Beginning to wonder whether we are going to have another relatively poor July

Interestingly, when you look at the years ending in "0" since 1900, how many good Junes were then followed by less than impressive Julys.

1910, 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960, 1970, 2000.

1980 was a poor July, the June wasn't that brilliant either.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Most Irish stations have now exceeded their average July rainfall. Claremorris is now at 208% of it's monthly rain so far, wetter than any of the last 3 Julys already.

[summer blizzard]

Offical Summer Blizzard forecast 2010.

Don't have time to get into great detail so i will break it down.

Neutral ENSO conditions will persist throughout summer 2010.

Negative QBO will peak in July 2010.

Arctic Occilation will be negative during June and July 2010, positive during August 2010.

June prediction: 15.0C, 0.9C above average - Drier than average

July prediction: 16.1C, 0.4C below average - Wetter than average

August prediction: 16.7C, 0.5C above average - Drier than average

Summer 2010 prediction: 15.9C, 0.3C above average - Drier than average

On the face of it, a summer much like 2009, though the possibility of a fourth straight cool and wet July.

That was the original prediction from me. I was quite pleased with June, however July was a degree warmer, and August is looking about a degree cooler. I think that the reasons for this are clear, my teleconnection assumptions, when infact we saw La Nina conditions quickly develop, and the QBO peak during May, which meant that while the forecast for June was correct, July observed +AO conditions and August -AO conditions. With this in mind, i am categorising my forecast as a fail.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table