Model Output Discussion

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?06-0

Not too shabby now anyway.

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm goes down hill from t96 not a good sign.

gp did touch apon this in the tec thread the high although still cold but dry.

odear not a good ecm.

sorry t144 and beyond looks pretty dry i apoligise.

Edited February 6, 2010 by badboy657

[SMU]

Not quite as good as the gfs but not bad, upper cold pool moving west-

Slow to start- slow to end-

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

better in wetter, with snow moving into the SE along that shortwave

S

Edited February 6, 2010 by Steve Murr

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?06-0

Not quite as good as the gfs but not bad, upper cold pool moving west-

Slow to start- slow to end-

S

Any ideas why the ECM has been consistently less keen on an easterly in the reliable timeframe than the other two models?

[TEITS]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?06-0

Not too shabby now anyway.

A huge sigh of relief from Peterborough.

On a serious note nothing has changed from my earlier post. During next week snow showers should increase towards the latter half of the week.

Splendid cold pool to our E.

[LomondSnowstorm]

A huge sigh of relief from Peterborough.

On a serious note nothing has changed from my earlier post. During next week snow showers should increase towards the latter half of the week.

Splendid cold pool to our E.

http://www.meteociel...M0-144.GIF?06-0

True, the basic pattern remains the same, just slightly fewer showers at +96/120 further north anyway than the other models.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/run/J120-21.GIF?06-12

Another minor model making a bit more of that shortwave.

[Ben_Cambs]

That is a deep cold pool on ECM at T+168, of course that is very good IMBY, but I still think Friday next week there will be widespread heavy snow showers for a lot of the country

Edited February 6, 2010 by Snowman0697

[SMU]

Any ideas why the ECM has been consistently less keen on an easterly in the reliable timeframe than the other two models?

Its just not recurving the jet bsck initially like the other 2, always has more energy- also with that the 2 high pressures wont meet, as a result-

stunning but not as spectacular as the GFS

ITS STILL 511 DAM in the SE at 168 though-- heavy snow

S

Edited February 6, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Mark Bayley]

ecm goes down hill from t96 not a good sign.

gp did touch apon this in the tec thread the high although still cold but dry.

odear not a good ecm.

sorry t144 and beyond looks pretty dry i apoligise.

Doesn't look to bad to me, cold with less snow than the GFS as pressure remains higher. An excellent ecm considering what the models had been showing! The further south and east you are the better, T168 chart looks particularly good down there!

Edited February 6, 2010 by mark bayley

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That is a deep cold pool on ECM at T+168, of course that is very good IMBY, but I still think Friday next week there will be widespread heavy snow showers for a lot of the county

hope you mean country not county? ecm 12Z no where near as good as 00Z in FI

[Ben_Cambs]

hope you mean country not county? ecm 12Z no where near as good as 00Z in FI

Sorry I did mean country, spelling mistake.

But again at T+168 we see the high retrogressing North westwards, an interesting T+192 chart for sure

Edited February 6, 2010 by Snowman0697

[LomondSnowstorm]

Its just not recurving the jet bsck initially like the other 2, always has more energy- also with that the 2 high pressures wont meet, as a result-

http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?06-0

stunning but not as spectacular as the GFS

ITS STILL 511 DAM in the SE at 168 though-- heavy snow

S

It would indeed but the other two are better countrywide with a more widespread cold pool and lower pressure over the UK. Anyway, hard to say who to back in situations where it is the GFS/UKMO against the ECM - time will tell I suppose.

Now that's my kind of chart! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-192.GIF?06-0

Looks like December to me!

Edited February 6, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The ECM keeps the coldest air back till t144 and beyond. A tendency for it to be kept to our east.

Good snow potential eventually but delayed till later in the week and beyond the more reliable time period if this is the output close to what does happen.

Still, a very nice cold week with plenty of frost and infinitely better than was suggested earlier this week

Edited February 6, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[TEITS]

True, the basic pattern remains the same, just slightly fewer showers at +96/120 further north anyway than the other models.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/run/J120-21.GIF?06-12

Another minor model making a bit more of that shortwave.

Yes I agree further N the ECM isn't as good. However looking at the differences between the ECM/GFS I tend to find the truth lies inbetween. So in otherwords I feel the E,lys will be slightly further N than the ECM suggests. I can guarantee these charts will continue to slightly change over the next few days.

Worth adding that aswell as snow showers it looks possible that a spell of more prolonged snow could arrive in the SE/E Anglia towards the end the week into the weekend.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yes I agree further N the ECM isn't as good. However looking at the differences between the ECM/GFS I tend to find the truth lies inbetween. So in otherwords I feel the E,lys will be slightly further N than the ECM suggests. I can guarantee these charts will continue to slightly change over the next few days.

Worth adding that aswell as snow showers it looks possible that a spell of more prolonged snow could arrive in the SE/E Anglia towards the end the week into the weekend.

yes away from the SE ecm looks dry and cold in the reliable.SE looking good for some snow as we head through the week.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Do you think that further down if the cold air becomes established for some time we could see a heavy battleground snow event along similar lines to February 1996? Surely there is the potential for a very widespread frontal snow event if we had an Atlantic low attacking from the SW later down the line? Are the synoptics we are looking at in the models at the the moment similar to early February 1996 or that month as a whole - what was the synoptic situation that month?

Luke

[SMU]

Lol a bit progressive I think-

ECM 12z is always faster than the sister 00z,I think we end up with a northerly flow, but day 10 or 11 not 9...

S

[Ben_Cambs]

Question, does ECM at T+216 show a reload from the N/NE?

[Tomomcd]

Hmmm interesting how it has thrown up a similar northerly to the GEM 00z run this morning, long way to go yet though

[TEITS]

This is very much following my script with +192/+216 showing stage 3 that I mentioned.

Clearly see this cold spell isn't going to arrive with a bang. This could well differ to the last cold spells as this has more potential for being even more prolonged. I feel Steve M summed it up perfectly by saying slow to start slow to end.

Edited February 6, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Eugene]

lol same trend small differences that can change on every run no reason to panic at all, if you expect carbon copies on every run then you have the wrong hobby i`m sorry to say.

Mouthwatering northern hemisphere pressure patterns here i mean look how far north that blocking high stretches just incredible chart, fallen off my chair looking at that

http://www.meteociel...16&mode=1&map=1

Edited February 6, 2010 by Eugene

[Cheshire Freeze]

Trouble is, it'll be into March before the good stuff hits at this rate, and by then there will not be the depth of cold pool there is now. The thing is on the ECM we are relying on retrogression of the high into Greenland to provide a countrywide winter spell and TBH, although the models favour this at the moment, a flip is a high probability especially if upstream signals become unfavourable. I would much rather have the winter weather progged by the GFS and UKMO for this week and next weekend than rely upon charts into the further reaches of FI

[Weather-history]

Question, does ECM at T+216 show a reload from the N/NE?

It has been the story of the winter so far. As I have said before any easterlies have either been short-lived or delivered next to nothing. It has been to look north for the real snowy episodes and to me it looks as though it is following that continuing pattern.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Mr_Data

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-240.GIF?06-0

Now that's what I call a proper snow event!

Perhaps a fairly slow start, possibly some organised moderate snow for most eastern areas Wednesday night into Thursday if GFS / perhaps UKMO verified but after that more anticylclonic further north, at least for a time before the high retrogresses to leave all areas in a flow trending from east towards northerly.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Trouble is, it'll be into March before the good stuff hits at this rate, and by then there will not be the depth of cold pool there is now. The thing is on the ECM we are relying on retrogression of the high into Greenland to provide a countrywide winter spell and TBH, although the models favour this at the moment, a flip is a high probability especially if upstream signals become unfavourable. I would much rather have the winter weather progged by the GFS and UKMO for this week and next weekend than rely upon charts into the further reaches of FI

March? I don't understand you ? Next week looking very cold and no sign of mild that i can see?