Model Output Discussion

[reef]

A new thread here:

[Thundery wintry showers]

The snowfalls from the 30th Jan northerly lasted pretty well in clear sunny weather with minimal reduction in depth even though max temps were 3 to 4C through the day. You also tend to find that snowcover lasts longer if it goes through a freeze thaw process which consolidates the sowpack and gives it more resistance to rain or sun.

On the models - Now that the cold weather is here snow possibilities will begin to crop up, sometimes out of the blue with nowcasting and radar watching the name of the game. There is the possiblity of an easterly/northerly combo which could give us at least a 10 day cold spell. The GFS 18z certainly shows some big snow potential later in the run.

The point re. freeze thaw consolidation is a good one. Here in Norwich there was just an inch or two of lying snow overnight 29th/30th, but there were night frosts and low dewpoints so a fair amount was still lying late on the 1st February despite highs of 3 or 4C and plenty of sunshine.

Regarding the upcoming week's outlook, it will probably be cloudy and damp again for most eastern areas on Monday. Brighter, showery conditions look like spreading down from the north on Tuesday. Later in the week doesn't look particularly straightforward with a number of weak fronts being shown on the FAX charts, so maybe we may see cloudier conditions at times in the east rather than a straight mix of sunshine and wintry showers.