Model Output Discussion:

[Matty M]

Nice 1035mb high to our north early

[PB22]

Today's 12z JMA run doesn't come out until after 7pm.

ECM 12z is underway, and so far so good...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-72.GIF?04-0

Great at T+96:

Edited February 4, 2010 by Paul B

[thegreat316]

You won't find a 0Z im afraid. The 12Z should be updated between 19.00-20.00.

ok thank you TEITS, NOGAPS looks poor though hope ECM does not look the same as that!

[SMU]

Yes but we were not discussing this - we were talking about the prediction of the Easterly 2 weeks ago by the GFS - there is no data for this (apart from it is probably rarely correct in any detail but can show a trend which is what happened here). All the models have been incorrect for this region of the globe for the 6 day forecasts because they have been flipping about so expect them all to dip in the next few days. When this gets brought up I would also like to point out that often we say this model or that is performing better but the difference is usually small - say 0.92 to 0.87 - so a 5% difference - what does this mean in reality (especially as they are probably considering the whole globe through the whole depth of the atmosphere - not the weather at any particular place). I also recently asked the question about how these coefficients are arrived at but no-one replied - anybody have a link to this?

there we go folks- A FULL HOUSE of Easterlies- Aces over Kings.....

Thicknesses on the ECM 72 are down to 532 DAM in continental Air--- 3 days to the start...

Im on holiday for 10 days from Sat - 1 have planned a mon to friday break at centre parcs-

Where do i go- Suffolk, or Sherwood or Cumbria!!!!!!!!!!

YESSSSSSSSSS

S

Edited February 4, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Ben_Cambs]

Today's 12z JMA run doesn't come out until after 7pm.

ECM 12z is underway, and so far so good...

http://www.wzkarten....cs/Recm721.html

Sorry about that, I still dont know the times that the lesser models come out!

Lets see now what ECM 12z throws up!

[SMU]

524 DAM thickness in the SE at monday Lunchtime---- Low heights, low thickness = snow showers---

Allignment of flow is Thames Streamer territory..

S

[cooling climate]

As soon as the ECM 12z t72 chart came out you that this was going to be a

cracking run every bit as good as the UKMO and GFS runs. Just trying to catch

up with reading the posts since tea time so lagging behind a bit.

[TEITS]

Im on holiday for 10 days from Sat - 1 have planned a mon to friday break at centre parcs-

Where do i go- Suffolk, or Sherwood or Cumbria!!!!!!!!!!

YESSSSSSSSSS

S

How about Butlins in Skegness.

If the trend continues you have certainly picked a perfect week.

Excellent ECM so far. Im still shaking my head in disbelief at the +72/+96 charts. Certainly need to take on board what has happened this week for future reference.

[PB22]

Oh my, ECM T+120 is awesome!

Finishes off some sensational output from the "big three" tonight up to T+120. The FAX charts should be awesome later on!

Edited February 4, 2010 by Paul B

[Thundery wintry showers]

The channel low would bring more organised frontal precipitation, but there is always the issue that on the southern flank there is usually sleet and rain about, sometimes freezing rain, leading to unpleasant icy slushy conditions or even just cold dull wet windy weather. On its northern flank there can be generous snowfalls.

ECMWF certainly looking like it may go the way of GFS/UKMO with a more pronounced high to the NW and low to the south giving a stronger easterly flow.

[Southender]

Bring on the Streamer is all i'm going to say.

Steve M, I would say Suffolk mate...

[Yeti]

524 DAM thickness in the SE at monday Lunchtime---- Low heights, low thickness = snow showers---

Allignment of flow is Thames Streamer territory..

S

Nice to see you back Steve, your input is always v. popular - I see you are as excited as many other members are!!

Now that is a nice NE'ly from the ECM at 120!

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM an absolute beauty, at T+120 and Paul B has posted ahead of me! That chart would certainly bring in heavy snow showers! Cant wait for T+144!

[Matty M]

That nuisance shortwave to the east of Greenland kinda scuppers the flow abit for us east coast Irish at 120 on the ECM

[Southender]

Bingo.

Agreement at last.

Surely time to ramp now?

[kold weather]

524 DAM thickness in the SE at monday Lunchtime---- Low heights, low thickness = snow showers---

Allignment of flow is Thames Streamer territory..

S

Yep the cold air really comes flowing in from the east during Monday and I'd imagine if we had that flow snow showers would be quite possible.

120hrs has a somewhat different evolution from the UKMO/GFS as it doesn't really develop any LP to our NE and instead we get a NE/ENE airflow (depending on where you are) due to the LP over the Med but probably not as snowy as either the UKMO/GFS, still very good mind you!

Also longer term evolution probably won't be quite so good either, upper high over Iceland doesn't look quite so strong.

Edited February 4, 2010 by kold weather

[Lewis]

I have just spoken to the ECM operative and he has told me it is an amazing contrast to the other outputs showing raging Zonalities

and temperatures of 10c in London next Wednesday, hold on to your hats...................

Why are you been so negative? How did you get this inside information!?

[Mark Bayley]

Great Start to the ECM. I would expect a fair few snow showers on the T120 chart, especially the further South and East you are! Perhaps not as snowy as the GFS and UKMO, but still good

[PB22]

T+144:

More snow for the southeast...cold and frosty elsewhere.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

well I prefer the GFS and UKMO to the ecmwf, just like I did after the 00Z', ecm snow only for NE/E/SE, where as gfs and ukmo snow for most

[kold weather]

144hrs as I sort of expected no where near as good as the other big two tonight, still fine but the snow risk reducing by that point on the ECM 144hrs as the high sinks towards the UK, certainly much worse then the UKMO thats for sure by 144hrs!

Of course, worth remembering mind you its still very cold at 144hrs but a possible end is already plauseable by 144hrs on the 12z ECM...

[Matty M]

Disappointing ECM

And so it begins as they say!!

[Geordiesnow]

Why are you been so negative? How did you get this inside information!?

It was tongue in cheek Lewis as if you look further down his post, it would suggest this.

ECM whilst is an improvment on this morning's run still topples the flow quicker than the UKMO and GFS. So whilst an easterly of some sort is looking likely, how long it will last is still uncertain. Certainly not a disaster though by any means but obviously as a cold and snow lover, i prefer the UKMO/GFS.

[ITSY]

Why are you been so negative? How did you get this inside information!?

Don't believe that 'insider information' malarky for one minute.

If it is true, the source most definately isn't reliable.

BOOM. agreement arrives - the train is on its way (for the time being).

Lets just hope it doesn't get delayed.

EDIT: ECM, whilst agreed on the arrival of some sort of snow and cold arriving from the East/North East/North, it ends the spell VERY quickly. Need an upgrade from the ECM to be sure of a prolonged event.

If UKMO and GFS stay the same during the 18Z that will roll out later on at about 10 o clock tonight, then I would personally expect an upgrade from the ECMWF during its midnight run around.

Edited February 4, 2010 by ITSY

[kold weather]

T+144:

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?04-12

More snow for the southeast...cold and frosty elsewhere.

Very good for Kent and also for eastern EA that chart, as you say dry and frost just about everywhere else.

The 144hrs could evolve one of two ways, the LP could ride up the upper high western flank and that will probably cause it to sink totally, or the jet could undercut enough and actually help to prop it all up....which case expect a possible reload....

Edited February 4, 2010 by kold weather